UK banning internal combustion engines (ICE) in 2035

[Glenn E. Meyer]

That's so true about NY'ers. Having lived there till my 20's, then Oregon and TX - they have no conceptualization of country distance. When in NY, we used to drive to see my Grandmother 20 miles away and I swear it was we were planning a Gobi desert expedition for all the fretting. When we drove up to Buffalo, it took two days as my mom couldn't conceptualize being in a car for more than 4 hours. A one day drive from San Antonio to Tulsa would be incomprehensible. I told her once I was driving from Buffalo to Cleveland to visit a friend and she was horrified. Had some Buffalo relatives visit San Antonio and we drove 12 miles for BBQ - freaked them out.

Having driven across country - E to W, N to S, diagonally quite a few time - I had to laugh. My cousin in Greenwich Village told me she wanted to live in Wyoming. I asked her if she was down for miles of nothing - having driven it a few times - the idea stumped her. Visit a cowboy themed bar in Greenwich Village if you want to laugh. It was like guys in New Guinea wearing top hats and clocks around their necks.

[beenalongtime]

Anyone seen the queen ordering an electric armoured car, or finding armour for her horse drawn carriage?

[Joe in PNG]

Well, I'm of two minds about this. Yes, 'the market' eventually does force changes, but it's sometimes after it's destroyed 'the market' or the underlying resource first. The unfettered market sucks at incorporating hidden or dispersed costs. That's how we ended up with things like The Dust Bowl or Superfund sites. People making short term money but not paying for the long term damage done, or making others pay for that damage. "The market" didn't ban leaded gas, but I'm pretty sure there's not a strong argument to be made for it's return.

On the other hand, government regulators are seldom better, and often times far worse then the market when it comes to ignorant decisions, short sighted policies, and general foolishness. There's a lot of Superfund that's being used for cleaning up messes the government made.

The difference is that the government can use taxation to make up for profit shortfalls.

If New Coke or Crystal Pepsi were government projects, they'd still be in production, and would be given away to schools and poor people. Which would then necessitate special government bureaucracy to help those people with obesity and tooth decay.

Why people seem to think that the profit motive is immoral and evil, while thinking that somehow government service excises the foul demons of Filthy Lucre from it's employees, leaving pure saints motivated only by the Most Noble Altruism is beyond me.

[0ddl0t]

The jobs that pay well and are difficult to automate (ie the ones that are being created) are simply unsuitable and unobtainable for a big chunk of the population. Not because they are lazy (although some are) and not because they don't work hard.

There are a lot of trades that pay well and aren't that difficult to pick up. I don't see robots replacing plumbers, day care providers, landscapers, hvac techs, auto techs, housekeepers, manicurists, barbers, etc. Automation may improve job efficiency (e.g. roomba-like lawn mowers), but humans will still be needed. I don't see robots stocking the fruit section of a supermarket anytime soon and even if more people use self checkout, you still need someone monitoring the machines and making sure people don't just walk out without paying.

Automation will improve the standard of living allowing people to pay for more silly luxuries involving human interaction (like paying $7 for coffee from a pleasant attractive young adult vs $1 for coffee from a convenience store machine, or $100 for 1 human-touch massage vs $50 for an automated massager).

[BehindBlueI's]

There are a lot of trades that pay well and aren't that difficult to pick up. I don't see robots replacing plumbers, day care providers, landscapers, hvac techs, auto techs, housekeepers, manicurists, barbers, etc. Automation may improve job efficiency (e.g. roomba-like lawn mowers), but humans will still be needed. I don't see robots stocking the fruit section of a supermarket anytime soon and even if more people use self checkout, you still need someone monitoring the machines and making sure people don't just walk out without paying.

Automation will improve the standard of living allowing people to pay for more silly luxuries involving human interaction (like paying $7 for coffee from a pleasant attractive young adult vs $1 for coffee from a convenience store machine, or $100 for 1 human-touch massage vs $50 for an automated massager).

Maybe. Japan is already experimenting with day care/assisted living adult care robots. GPS enabled machines already do a lot of farming with a human basically along for the ride, not sure why that couldn't translate into landscaping as technology improves pricing and size. Some of that stuff will likely be automated in my lifetime. Others maybe not until I'm pushing up daisies, but it's inevitable in the long haul unless we do a nuclear reset or the corona-ebola hybrid wipes us out.

[JAD]

I really thought liquid sodium would be the hot (!!) ticket for energy storage.

It might be for stationary. Stationary energy, which is a $5Bn market this year, does not have the same parameters as Emobility. Likewise mass and marine transport and industrial vehicles have a much greater safety burden than individual transport, and more electric aircraft are a very different specific energy (and power) ask than ground and water stuff (plus safety beyond the marine ask, which currently sets the bar). Takes all kinds.

[hufnagel]

It might be for stationary. Stationary energy, which is a $5Bn market this year, does not have the same parameters as Emobility. Likewise mass and marine transport and industrial vehicles have a much greater safety burden than individual transport, and more electric aircraft are a very different specific energy (and power) ask than ground and water stuff (plus safety beyond the marine ask, which currently sets the bar). Takes all kinds.

GE was working on doing something with liquid sodium "batteries" on a hybrid diesel train engine. My BiL was involved in the project, hence how I came to learn about it.

[JAD]

GE was working on doing something with liquid sodium "batteries" on a hybrid diesel train engine. My BiL was involved in the project, hence how I came to learn about it.

yup. Rail has little interest in specific energy. Charge rate would limit the utility of a lNa system tho — check out what ABB just launched for rail using LTO chemistry, much more on point.

[txdpd]

Automation will improve the standard of living allowing people to pay for more silly luxuries involving human interaction (like paying $7 for coffee from a pleasant attractive young adult vs $1 for coffee from a convenience store machine, or $100 for 1 human-touch massage vs $50 for an automated massager).

And this is why electric cars won’t save the world. We are human, and the idea that we could leave all that oil in the ground and find a way to be happy with good enough isn’t going to happen. And yes I know I’m a communist and hate America with thoughts like that.

[Baldanders]

Have you really thought out the long term end results of the solution most often proposed to this? Do you really think that things like universal incomes, or guaranteed jobs, or special regulations, or more centralized planing and government oversight would actually fix this potential problem? Did bread & circuses really work for the Romans, long term? Did the much touted low unemployment of the Soviet Union actually benefit their people?
The answer is no- the cure is much worse than the disease, and the most often prescribed solution is far worse than the problem it is supposed to fix. Trading freedom (specifically economic freedom) for security WILL result in the loss of both.

Did I propose a solution? Beats me what the "settled" state of the job market will look like, and I am not emotionally attached to any proposed solutions. I just questioned the idea that "pull yourself up your bootstraps" will be a long-term solution to what technology is doing to the future of employment.

"Bread and Circuses" was the long-term solution to the upper classes of Rome sucking small farming families dry (while the male farmers were off to war). "People should work harder" wouldn't have solved that situation, either. We need to talk about other solutions beyond moral improvement of our working and middle classes.

The only solution I have seen here is "more people will be body servants to the upper classes." Those tend to be low-paying, low-security jobs.