Coronavirus thread

[pangloss]

So having a good possibility of being exposed with multiple acquaintances being sick midweek and testing positive late week, and me having contact with them all last weekend, I went and got tested today. I'm waiting on results which should be back by tomorrow sometime. I just took the time to read the info link from the CDC and this jumped right out and slapped me. I mean What the proverbial fuck? Is there a valid biological/medical reason for this or is it gerrymandering the numbers? Honest question.

Attachment 66316

Full document here:
https://www.fda.gov/media/134921/download

ETA: I feel fine and have no symptoms but needed to know as I'm a caregiver to my 80 year old mother who just completed chemo/radiation.

Pooling helps reduce the number of tests required per given number of people. If the positivity rate is low, and you pool five samples into one test, then you can screen almost 5x as many people. At the end of the day, you pull all the pooled samples that tested positive and run them individually. The sensitivity of the test is such that the increased chance of a false negative is minimal. Again, whether or not this approach makes sense depends on the percent positivity.

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[Spartan1980]

Pooling helps reduce the number of tests required per given number of people. If the positivity rate is low, and you pool five samples into one test, then you can screen almost 5x as many people. At the end of the day, you pull all the pooled samples that tested positive and run them individually. The sensitivity of the test is such that the increased chance of a false negative is minimal. Again, whether or not this approach makes sense depends on the percent positivity.

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Thanks! I can see that. Some level of confidence in humanity has been restored!

[TheNewbie]

Well an uncle signed up to get tested, showed up and had to wait. He got tired of waiting and left without getting tested. The next week he gets notified he tested positive.

I don’t see the point in getting tested personally.

I have to for work, even without symptoms. It’s reaching levels of absurdity that drive me insane and it makes me wish I was rich enough to avoid this all. If I’m sick, I’m not coming to work. This is not a new concept for me.


Unfortunately my wife wants to go skiing in New Mexico, where the panic seems to be worse. Friends that went out there said a girl was told to cover her nose. Her mask was below her nose, while she was outside.....on a mountain.

[0ddl0t]

California has pulled 1 lot (41L20A) - 330,000 doses - of Moderna's vaccine due to alergic reactions (6 reported at one San Diego clinic)

[JAD]

California has pulled 1 lot (41L20A) - 330,000 doses - of Moderna's vaccine due to alergic reactions (6 reported at one San Diego clinic)

That seems like poor math to me. Of the 6 people, how many died? How many of the 330k people who don’t get a vaccine will die of COVID?

[Nephrology]

California has pulled 1 lot (41L20A) - 330,000 doses - of Moderna's vaccine due to alergic reactions (6 reported at one San Diego clinic)

Sort of weird to attribute that to a specific lot without knowing more

That seems like poor math to me. Of the 6 people, how many died? How many of the 330k people who don’t get a vaccine will die of COVID?

It isn't really that simple, unfortunately. For a good comparator, see Hy's law

What is curious to me is why they pulled that specific lot, sort of wonder what the #s look like vs other lots of same product.

[0ddl0t]

That seems like poor math to me. Of the 6 people, how many died? How many of the 330k people who don’t get a vaccine will die of COVID?

6 hospitalized, no deaths, but they were all from one clinic's vaccine drive. The normal rate of adverse reaction is about 1 in 100,000 so only 3 or maybe 4 reactions should have been expected from the entire lot of 330,000.

It doesn't look like the rate of adverse reactions was unusual at the other vaccination sites using that lot, but it is probably worth taking a day or two to investigate further.

[pangloss]

California has pulled 1 lot (41L20A) - 330,000 doses - of Moderna's vaccine due to allergic reactions (6 reported at one San Diego clinic)

Sounds more like something weird at that clinic.

In other news, my uncle continues to cling to life. His immediate family made the decision not to put him on a ventilator, which I think is the correct decision. If you get sick, please don't wait six days before getting meaningful treatment. This morning my sister tested positive. She's in her early 40s so much less at risk than someone in their early 80s. She has never been a fit or physically active person, smoked for years, and generally doesn't handle being sick very well. My dad was rather cryptic in his comments, but I think I'm on standby if my sister needs any sort of significant help. Thank God and Pfizer for my antibodies and 3M for masks.

I didn't comment earlier on an anaphylaxis post, and I confess to not knowing nearly as much as I should about it. None of my work has ever had anything to do with anaphylaxis, and I've never had to teach that lecture. I almost had to teach it this semester, in which case I'd probably have had something substantive to add to the conversation. Or maybe not. Regardless, nothing is perfect. The live polio vaccine has a reversion rate to full virulence somewhere on the order of 1 dose in 2 million, I think. A small frequency of significantly bad outcomes following vaccination is acceptable. These risks are managed as well as possible. For the COVID vaccines, a history of severe allergic reactions and anaphylaxis is a contraindication for the vaccine. I don't know who draws the line on what an acceptable rate of bad outcomes is, but I don't expect the same standards to apply in the middle of a pandemic, whether it's for vaccines or for patient care in an overfilled, makeshift ICU. People who think that all the "normal" standards still apply are stuck in a pre-pandemic mindset. I'm sorry if I come off sounding too harsh.

[Spartan1980]

So having a good possibility of being exposed with multiple acquaintances being sick midweek and testing positive late week, and me having contact with them all last weekend, I went and got tested today. I'm waiting on results which should be back by tomorrow sometime.

Got my results back this afternoon. Negative. YeeHah! My distancing was evidently adequate. We are up to 5 positives in our group now.

[willie]

Some are saying that many covid-19 deaths are really flu deaths. They imply that the problem is less serious than we are led to believe. They ask where are the flu deaths. Can an informed person comment on this.