Coronavirus thread

[0ddl0t]

Georgia Tech has a handy website that estimates the probability of encountering someone positive with covid19 based on the size of a group and the prevalence in the county: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/


I checked the numbers on a few nearby counties and it seems to use the # of positive tests for the last 14 days divided by the county population to get a background prevalence. It then multiplies that by 5 or 10 based on your selection (i.e. 5 or 10 positive cases for every 1 positive test) and calculates the probability of encountering at least 1 person in a group of 10, 15, etc people...

For example, in hot spot El Paso a group of 10 random people would have at least 1 person positive for covid19 89% of the time, assuming there are 10 positive cases for every 1 positive test:

[HeavyDuty]

Georgia Tech has a handy website that estimates the probability of encountering someone positive with covid19 based on the size of a group and the prevalence in the county: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/


I checked the numbers on a few nearby counties and it seems to use the # of positive tests for the last 14 days divided by the county population to get a background prevalence. It then multiplies that by 5 or 10 based on your selection (i.e. 5 or 10 positive cases for every 1 positive test) and calculates the probability of encountering at least 1 person in a group of 10, 15, etc people...

For example, in hot spot El Paso a group of 10 random people would have at least 1 person positive for covid19 89% of the time, assuming there are 10 positive cases for every 1 positive test:

Thank you for posting that.

[Nephrology]

Correct. Sensei was referring to ECMO which is one of options. Those require additional experience and expertise to run, and are in shorter supply than icu beds or vents so we run out of them regularly these days.

Are the local CT surgeons/practices getting at all more conservative about what cases they are booking?

[Caballoflaco]

Correct. Sensei was referring to ECMO which is one of options. Those require additional experience and expertise to run, and are in shorter supply than icu beds or vents so we run out of them regularly these days.

Thanks for the answer. Any idea on the survival rate of covid patients who end up needing MCS or ECMO in your hospital? Does your previous post also mean that if somebody shows up with a heart attack and needs mcs before surgery they’re screwed?

@Sensei and @Nephrology have y’all seen any numbers on covid survival after the patient needs MCS ?

[peterb]

More good news....

-----------------------------------
New research has found that nearly 1 person in 5 diagnosed with COVID-19 is diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder like anxiety, depression or insomnia within three months.

People recovering from COVID-19 were about twice as likely to be diagnosed with a mental health disorder as compared with someone who had the flu, says Paul Harrison, professor of psychiatry at Oxford and one of the study's authors.

The study found that the relationship between mental illness and COVID is actually bidirectional: people with psychiatric diagnosis were about 65% more likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19 than people without.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ental-disorder

[YVK]

Are the local CT surgeons/practices getting at all more conservative about what cases they are booking?

Until this week, no. Any surgery that had above average chance of patient going to ICU required extra planning and coordination. CTS patients end up in ICU by definition so they have had to do a lot of coordination. Not sure what's going to happen after this week. The system is working feverishly, and with a good effect I might add, to move whatever possible to ambulatory settings. Stuff that can't be moved will become problematic. I am positive that ICU availability will become a part of decision making whether to offer open vs percutaneous options for some patients.

Any idea on the survival rate of covid patients who end up needing MCS or ECMO in your hospital?

I don't know. We don't have enough manpower to manage ECMOs for extended periods of time at our facility. These patients get transferred to our main hospital down south. I am sure we will have the data when this is over. I'll let you know when I know.

Does your previous post also mean that if somebody shows up with a heart attack and needs mcs before surgery they’re screwed?

Yes, it meant exactly that. I do have an option to call somebody and escalate it up the chain. If there is absolutely no capability within the system, I will get a quick no. If they can stretch it, they will call me back to talk it over. If patient is still alive by then, they might get their support but I can't make that decision in a normal way, meaning instantly and unilaterally at the exact moment I want to deploy it.
As of now our ICU is at 200% and our main facility is full with zero beds of any kind. MCS or not, those patients are screwed anyway.

[delphidoc]

Georgia Tech has a handy website that estimates the probability of encountering someone positive with covid19 based on the size of a group and the prevalence in the county: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

In Pontotoc County we've got an 84% risk in a group of 50, a 30% risk in a group of 10.

324 active cases in a largely rural county of 35K.

Coz warin' a mask and soshul distuncin' iz aginst muh rites.

[Totem Polar]

My daughter in college was exposed to her roommate (obviously) who self reported minor symptoms and tested positive. My daughter was sent to the isolation dorm. A not so great motel on the far edge of campus on a main road near a real sketchy area. Unlike the security of campus and multiple locked doors to pass through to get to her dorm room she had one rickety motel door between her and the outside world. She was not comfortable there. Her incarceration lasted 8 days. On day 7 she was tested and on day 8 the result came back negative.

She now is very concerned about getting exposed again and being sent back to the isolation dorm. She needs to make it to the Tuesday before Thanksgiving without further incident then I will be bringing her home. She will finish the semester remotely.

That is exactly how protocols work at the private U I teach at. Honestly, from my insider view of things, nobody will say boo if your daughter pulls out early and comes home at the end of next week. Anything of real note happening on M and Tu of Thanksgiving week will also be happening via zoom. I’d seriously consider just packing FTF coursework in next Friday; save a week of exposure at the cost of 2 days class that the profs are trying to mitigate too. JMO.

[Caballoflaco]

Until this week, no. Any surgery that had above average chance of patient going to ICU required extra planning and coordination. CTS patients end up in ICU by definition so they have had to do a lot of coordination. Not sure what's going to happen after this week. The system is working feverishly, and with a good effect I might add, to move whatever possible to ambulatory settings. Stuff that can't be moved will become problematic. I am positive that ICU availability will become a part of decision making whether to offer open vs percutaneous options for some patients.




I don't know. We don't have enough manpower to manage ECMOs for extended periods of time at our facility. These patients get transferred to our main hospital down south. I am sure we will have the data when this is over. I'll let you know when I know.



Yes, it meant exactly that. I do have an option to call somebody and escalate it up the chain. If there is absolutely no capability within the system, I will get a quick no. If they can stretch it, they will call me back to talk it over. If patient is still alive by then, they might get their support but I can't make that decision in a normal way, meaning instantly and unilaterally at the exact moment I want to deploy it.
As of now our ICU is at 200% and our main facility is full with zero beds of any kind. MCS or not, those patients are screwed anyway.

That’s gnarly, but thank you for sharing. This is the kind of stuff that people need to know and understand is happening.

[trailrunner]

Virginia seems to have been on the lower side of number of cases so far, but they are starting to rise, just like everywhere else.

Our schools are now starting to make plans to return a limited number of kids to the classroom starting next week. My wife is a kindergarten teacher, and is not happy about this. Kindergartners will not be able to abide by rules about wearing a mask and social distancing. In normal times, she had kids climbing on her, wiping their nose on the their hands and then holding my wife's hand, and even coughing in her mouth. There have been two positive cases in the staff at her school in the last month; they did not tell anyone about this, but there is a website that tracks cases at each school.

This does not seem prudent, and could negate all the efforts we've been making over the last eight months.