We peaked first back in early May, then started down. Then Memorial Day happened and it's been rising ever since. (Also some reopening)
Now at over 2X our previous peak and climbing. I'm sure some of it is 4th of July related.
Of course I live in a coastal community and whenever there's a holiday, people show up in droves.
It is entirely dependent on the behavior of people within the community. If people diligently social distance and wear masks, the numbers will decline. If people fool themselves into thinking that they can resume normal behavior then the virus numbers will go up. People are slow learners, so I expect we'll see repeated waxing and waning cycles. Despite the dramatic rise in case number, only a small fraction of the population has been exposed to the virus, so the virus has a lot of room left to run. You can put out a fire, but one small ember is enough to start it again when there's still plenty of fuel around.
I expect our resurgence to continue. A friend called me today on his way back from his camp up north and wondered out loud that there must not be any Illinois people left in IL because they are all here in MI. He is not lying. Usually they mostly come on weekends. Lately they seem to be staying all week. It was mostly them at the sandbar party that made national news on the Independence day holiday weekend. We have seen a number of positive tests come out of that fiasco.
http://www.int-soc-clin-geriat.com/i...SARS-CoV-2.pdf.
I’m no doctor but are the tests the problem? I would like to hear some discussion of this paper from more knowledgeable members of the forum.
Last edited by camel; 07-19-2020 at 10:38 PM.