Quite the contrary. A sample size of 1,000 for Germany's 84 million population equates to a 95% confidence with a 3% margin of error. It is significant...Originally Posted by bravo7
Of the reports where we actually know the denominator, the fatality rate is very low. 0.37% in Germany (average age 47) and 1% on the Diamond Princess (average age 58). The average age in the US is 38.
Last edited by 0ddl0t; 04-12-2020 at 05:27 PM.
The methodology here is interesting.
http://"https://abcnews.go.com/US/se...tMj82L7SFjess"
Sewage analysis suggests a New England metro area with fewer than 500 COVID-19 cases may have exponentially more
Epidemiologists are studying wastewater to gauge rates of COVID-19 infection.
Preliminary findings released this week from a new effort to track the spread of the coronavirus through sewage data suggests that one metro region in Massachusetts that's reported fewer than 500 positive tests actually may actually have exponentially more.
Last month, Massachusetts lab Biobot Analytics launched a partnership with Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Brigham and Women's Hospital to use its technology pro bono to map and analyze the spread of the virus through wastewater.
The lab previously has helped U.S. municipalities similarly track the prevalence of opioid use.
Very interesting numbers on this. This gentleman is a Ph.D. Scientist, but virology isn't his field. I'd like to hear what our professionals (and others) think about these numbers.
You will more often be attacked for what others think you believe than what you actually believe. Expect misrepresentation, misunderstanding, and projection as the modern normal default setting. ~ Quintus Curtius
Mother Fuckers!
Why would I risk my life savings moving incremental quantities of PPE if this is the reception?
I'm happy to integrate with. Gov but my name is not Ben Dover.
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." - Thomas Jefferson, Virginia Constitution, Draft 1, 1776
I watched about five minutes of it. "Spread rate" is not the right term, and however he used to calculate it is even more wronger. The correct term is reproductive rate, and there's no way on earth that one person infected with this virus is going to infect 40 additional people. Measles is the most contagious human pathogen and has a reproductive rate of ~15, which means that on average one infected person can infect 15 other people. Working from memory here, but the only other pathogen I can think of with a higher reproductive rate is classical swine fever virus (not a human pathogen!). I've seen one estimate of 100 for it, which completely blows my mind, but when a pig is crowded into a pen with a bunch of other pigs, I guess bad things can happen. 40 is a jaw-dropping number too. Having said that, I'm not an epidemiologist (IANAE). If I should skip to some particular minute mark, let me know, and I will. My attention span is shot tonight, so I may just go watch dog videos. Gunbroker isn't nearly as much fun as it was a couple of months ago now that all the prices have jumped, so that's not very appealing at the moment.
Thanks again for your service on the front lines of this shit. In glad to hear you've got some optimistic news there.
I realize this is anecdotal, but what have your observations been thus far regarding the patients getting the zithro/plaq combos?
NYC metropolitan area is expecting 1" - 2" of rain and damaging high winds Monday 4/13. NWS has posted a High Wind Warning and calling for gusts above 60 MPH.
Conn. (WTNH) — Due to the high winds predicted for Monday, April 13, many drive-thru coronavirus testing sites are shutting their tent doors for the day.
RELATED: Damaging gusts, localized flooding, and outages expected Monday
Griffin Health said in a statement Sunday afternoon, they are closing as a cautionary measure based on the weather forecast. All appointments scheduled for Monday, April 13 will either be moved up to Sunday or rescheduled. They say their goal is to be back up and running Tuesday.
Hartford Healthcare is doing the same. They said in a statement Sunday, all their testing for Monday is canceled.
Bristol Health said, “because of the high winds, we will be closed for collecting specimens tomorrow. We will reopen at 8 a.m. on Tuesday.”
Yale New Haven Hospital also said their specimen collection centers will be closed Monday.
Trinity Health of New England announced that testing sites at Saint Mary’s Hospital in Waterbury, Saint Francis Hospital in Hartford and Johnson Memorial Hospital in Stafford Springs will be closed on Monday. Trinity’s sites are expected to reopen Tuesday.
One thing that scares me is, people have a short memory. They get caught up in the complexities of their own life and forget what they just lived through.
Hopefully after this catastrophe the U.S. will maintain the expertise to respond to a pandemic because I fear this is not the last one we’re going to have in my lifetime. Which means keeping experts on staff and having a true emergency supply of equipment (PPE and ventilators and field hospitals and whatever) Which means us taxpayers will have to pay to buy the stuff, pay to safely and securely store it, keep a good inventory so they know what they have and where it is, and maintain all that stuff so it works when it is needed.
After any crisis there are lessons to be learned. Unfortunately expertise is quickly lost because people retire or move to new assignments or whatever, and it seems we keep reinventing the wheel. One of these times we’re just going to have to roll with the wheels we already have and that might not be good enough.
The west, and especially the USA, is all about instant gratification. We want it and we want it NOW. I can see something after a decade or so like, "ahhhh, pandemics happen once every hundred years... let's go for the profit NOW"
Not many real changes actually occurred after the 2008 fiasco. Once the masses had a semblance or normality and the potential for an uprising 'reign of terror' has subsided it's back to business as usual. Lessons are learned in the moment but rarely are effective changes implemented.
As soon has the fear of the virus subsides it'll go back to business as usual until the next one.
You will more often be attacked for what others think you believe than what you actually believe. Expect misrepresentation, misunderstanding, and projection as the modern normal default setting. ~ Quintus Curtius
True, but anyone with half of a functioning cortex will assume that. The Chinese government lies about everything. It's a structural defect that has existed for a very long time. Nobody prospers by being the one who brings bad news to the Emperor.
If we have to march off into the next world, let us walk there on the bodies of our enemies.
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