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Thread: Coronavirus thread

  1. #371
    Site Supporter Matt O's Avatar
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    @farscott

    Regardless of which denominator is used, the rate would logically fluctuate to a degree in the beginning as the sample size grew. Once the sample size is representative enough; however, and before the disease has fully run its course, using only those cases that have been terminated in one sense or another as the denominator seems to give a much more indicative picture of the average lethality of the virus. Using the entire patient population means we don't get an accurate fatality rate until every patient case is finalized.

    I remember this exact same issue with SARS as I was first moving to China back in '03/'04. The initial projected mortality rate was around the same at 2-3% using this methodology of the entire active patient population as the denominator; however, in the end, the actual mortality rate was almost 10%.

    I am very much admittedly not a medical professional and if wiser individuals than myself have determined this is the correct way to calculate the mortality rate at this time then so be it. My concern stemmed from the, in my opinion, pretty extreme variance between 2-3% and 9-10%. I do a modicum of predictive financial forecasting and modeling in my job and being 300-500% off would be pretty unacceptable, particularly when there appears to be a way at this point to arrive at more (potentially) indicative numbers right now using the data we already have.

  2. #372
    Quote Originally Posted by Grey View Post
    I'd say that the Iranian numbers are complete and utter lies. The Chinese ones? I'd say they might be skewed but the World's eyes are on them and if they fuck this up their economy is seriously on the line. If other countries suspect China grossly fudging the numbers the travel restrictions, etc, will continue to remain in play. At least that is my thirty second assessment.
    I hope your correct about China. They haven’t even updated the numbers from several outbreak areas for days (Hubei) I have no proof but my gut tells me China has a much larger problem than they admit. The actions they are taking carry so much risk for the regime and their own economy going forward that it doesn’t add up. The Chinese politburo’s own statement 2 days ago said the situation was “not under control” and is “more complicated than anticipated” How does that jive with the case numbers in China stabilizing?

    Again, I hope your correct. I have kids and I live in a major metropolitan area. The most shocking thing to me is how little people around here seem to care about this. The CDC tells businesses and schools to “expect major disruptions” yet people almost laugh at me when I ask about this. I would rather people prepare for the worst and then laugh at it later.

  3. #373
    Quote Originally Posted by EPF View Post
    I hope your correct about China. They haven’t even updated the numbers from several outbreak areas for days (Hubei) I have no proof but my gut tells me China has a much larger problem than they admit. The actions they are taking carry so much risk for the regime and their own economy going forward that it doesn’t add up. The Chinese politburo’s own statement 2 days ago said the situation was “not under control” and is “more complicated than anticipated” How does that jive with the case numbers in China stabilizing?

    Again, I hope your correct. I have kids and I live in a major metropolitan area. The most shocking thing to me is how little people around here seem to care about this. The CDC tells businesses and schools to “expect major disruptions” yet people almost laugh at me when I ask about this. I would rather people prepare for the worst and then laugh at it later.
    Very true on China covering up what they can cover up - ie prisons and what not, totally forgot about that fact.

    I think America is in ignorant bliss about major shit going down here because we were basically not affected by SARS, Ebola, and whatever else was the BIG ONE in the last decade. Plus I think most folks thinks this will blow over soon, I've seen predictions that this doesn't peak until late April/May so we might be in for a long ride.

  4. #374
    Site Supporter Matt O's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EPF View Post
    The most shocking thing to me is how little people around here seem to care about this. The CDC tells businesses and schools to “expect major disruptions” yet people almost laugh at me when I ask about this.
    I was chatting with the other parents this morning while we were waiting to drop off kids at preschool and asked if anyone was following the CDC updates on coronavirus. I just got a bunch of uncomfortable, blank looks in response. I am not a prepper, not a tin-foil hat person, but almost feel that way when I bring this topic up with people because it's not even on their radar.

  5. #375

    I'm a Rush Fanboy....but

    Quote Originally Posted by JHC View Post
    I know. It's stupid conspiracy junk food for the audience. Keep them tuning in.
    I'm typically a Rush fanboy, but he is way off base here. This is obviously NOT the common cold. The dems are not purposefully tanking the market. However, are they secretly (or not so secretly) excited about the chance the economy has a real slow down in an election year? Of course they are! (Never let a good crisis go to waste!)

    Also, this isn't some abstract market correction. It is the realization that many companies will very soon have significant supply chain issues and will not be conducting business as normal, potentially for much of 2020. Nearly every infectious disease doc believes the numbers coming out of China are massively under-reporting the actual deaths and infections. Most suggest to add at least 1 zero. China doesn't risk their economy over the common cold. China doesn't risk significant economic setback over 2,500 dead.

    The markets are also responding to the situation devolving in South Korea as the virus spreads there. I had heard 2 weeks ago Hyundai would soon stop manufacturing vehicles because they have no parts coming from China. Manufacturers all over the world will experience this very soon. Efficient inventory management demands no surplus is held and parts are used soon after arrival. China is also a huge market for many international companies. Auto makers realized a 92% decrease in sales in China over the last month. When people aren't leaving home, they aren't buying many things.

    Stocks to invest in for 2020: 3M, Reckitt Benckiser (Lysol), Clorox

  6. #376
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt O View Post
    I was chatting with the other parents this morning while we were waiting to drop off kids at preschool and asked if anyone was following the CDC updates on coronavirus. I just got a bunch of uncomfortable, blank looks in response. I am not a prepper, not a tin-foil hat person, but almost feel that way when I bring this topic up with people because it's not even on their radar.
    Time to order more freeze dried food... Not sure why everyone thinks N95s are going to save you, you want a full face shield...

  7. #377
    Site Supporter Maple Syrup Actual's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by farscott View Post
    Even if only 70% of the population contracts the virus with 0.5% of those cases becoming fatal, it will be horrible. There are about 350 million people in the USA, so 70% of the population is 245 million. If just 0.5% of that 70% are fatalities, that is 1.225 million deaths. And that is just the direct hit. Medical resources, including physicians, nurses, lab techs, rooms, respirators, labs, imaging, et al, will be diverted to handling these cases, and people suffering other ailments will not get necessary treatment in a timely manner. That concerns me as much as the coronavirus itself.

    To put it in perspective, the CDC reports that the total US annual deaths in 2017 was 2.813 million people per https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm So the disease would increase the death rate about 43% IF (big if) 70% of the population gets the coronavirus and 0.5% of those who have the virus perish from it. Let's hope the numbers are a lot lower.
    The flu, which is endemic and about as established as any disease can get, I would think, doesn't get anywhere near 70% in a year. A typical year is more like 5% and a bad year might get to 20%.

    Not saying there's nothing to worry about, but I would keep it in perspective here. We can't, at all, stop the flu from circling the globe every year and it still doesn't infect anything like 70% of the population in a given year. We may still be able to slow this down a lot and clearly frantic measures are being taken in some places, at least, to prevent it from becoming another flu. But if we ever get to 5% a year, and the mortality rate with the kind of treatment available in western nations is 0.5% (as in the above quote)...you're talking about 87,500 people, most of whom were about to die from something else because they were already really old.

    Yes it would be a problem, yes it would put further strain on the health care system, no, I'm not hardly stressed out about it. Despite all attempts to improve survivability, the death rate is holding steady at 100%. This doesn't seem like it's going to affect my life a whole lot, and if it does, it's more because people are having an emotional overreaction to the situation and it's screwing with the economy than anything else.

  8. #378
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    With the large amount of Chinese investment and infrastructure in Africa I fear its only a matter of time until the corona virus goes TIA. That will be bad, if the reported numbers of 20% or so patients needing critical medical care are true.

  9. #379
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    Not to worry anyone🙀, but the mortality rate among older males in China is up around 13%. Isn’t that the demographic of much of pistol forum?
    Real guns have hammers.

  10. #380
    Abducted by Aliens Borderland's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EPF View Post
    I hope your correct about China. They haven’t even updated the numbers from several outbreak areas for days (Hubei) I have no proof but my gut tells me China has a much larger problem than they admit. The actions they are taking carry so much risk for the regime and their own economy going forward that it doesn’t add up. The Chinese politburo’s own statement 2 days ago said the situation was “not under control” and is “more complicated than anticipated” How does that jive with the case numbers in China stabilizing?

    Again, I hope your correct. I have kids and I live in a major metropolitan area. The most shocking thing to me is how little people around here seem to care about this. The CDC tells businesses and schools to “expect major disruptions” yet people almost laugh at me when I ask about this. I would rather people prepare for the worst and then laugh at it later.
    I think the fact is we are woefully unprepared to deal with this. Europe, IMO, will be better situated to deal with it than say China or Iran. It will be a critical test. They have modern hospitals, open borders, large densely populated cities, and mobility. Almost a mirror of some large US cities. The fact that we haven't been impacted yet doesn't mean a lot. If people in CDC say we will be I have to believe them. That's their job to evaluate these things.
    In the P-F basket of deplorables.

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