I am not so sure China has this contained. I was at a meeting today where the CEO mentioned that the business has only been able to contact about two-thirds of employees in China and many of those employees are under quarantine and/or travel restrictions.
China absolutely doesn't have it contained and I don't think it's reasonable to expect that any country will be able to truly contain it any more than we can contain seasonal influenza, whose propagation it most closely mimics.Originally Posted by farscott
Honestly my greatest concern is what happens when it lands here. Not so much with regards to its threat to health as knock on effects on US economy. The publicity this has gotten is going to mean panic and I am not confident that this administration is prepared to handle it (note that the White House's proposed spending bill includes a 16% cut to CDC's budget).
If we respond the way that China has - shuttering schools, factories, etc - we will be paralyzed.
I am 90% in G Fund in TSP as I am near retirement - that has been my emergency/sleep well at night money for over a decade. I have other money in the market but that G fund safety net is critical to my retirement plans.
I just read on a news site today that the President has asked congress for money to fight this virus. I think it was something like $2.5B
Closer to home, we’ve got a series of patients in my neck of the woods:
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/20...eart-remain-i/
The guy who runs the pathogen unit in the above story is a friend of mine; when I get a chance I’ll talk to him, since he’s probably treated as many coronavirus patients as anyone who isn’t a Chinese national at this point.
”But in the end all of these ideas just manufacture new criminals when the problem isn't a lack of criminals.” -JRB
A little estate planning goes a long way... I’ve had some recent experience in that area, and it wasn’t fun..Luckily, it spurred me to get my house in order, and after talking to my attorney, I got it handled. All I can say to anyone reading this who hasn’t done it yet, consider making some final arrangements now, while you’re still alive.. Don’t dump it on your wife/kids to have to scramble around buying a plot, making funeral arrangements, buying a headstone, etc, Do it now, that way when the time comes, they won’t have to..
Last edited by ralph; 02-25-2020 at 08:15 PM.
From my front porch it looks like an F'in catastrophe. I keep reading stuff like this;
https://www.commondreams.org/news/20...gs-coronavirus
This is not inspiring. 40-70% of the world population contracting Covid-19 and a 1-3% fatality rate. That's at least 400K deaths in the US. Jeezus, with Bernie running the tables and predictions like this no wonder the stock market is taking a yuge dump. Lets hope it doesn't drop another 800 pts tomorrow."Ultimately we expect we will see community spread in the United States," Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC told reporters. "It's not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses. We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad."
Am I too late with my sell order
Last edited by Borderland; 02-25-2020 at 08:28 PM.
In the P-F basket of deplorables.
See my earlier post and comments re: mortality rate. ~2% mortality rate does not reflect asymptomatic hosts which likely dilute the mortality rate substantially.This is not inspiring. 40-70% of the world population contracting Covid-19 and a 1-3% fatality rate. That's at least 400K deaths in the US. Jeezus, with Bernie running the tables and predictions like this no wonder the stock market is taking a yuge dump. Lets hope it doesn't drop another 800 pts tomorrow.
Am I too late with my sell order
The terminology is weighing me down. Are you saying it's probably higher than 1-3%?
In the P-F basket of deplorables.
He is suggesting that it is lower than the 2% rate often quoted. The idea is your total infected population is missing those which do not present with symptoms (asymptomatic), and if you include those the denominator goes up and your rate goes down.
That said, I believe the WHO said they did not detect evidence of significant asymptomatic transmission in China, which if true means that means the case fatality rate is likely closer to 2%. On the other hand, a positive could be that at least you don't have people unknowingly transmitting the disease.
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