Coronavirus thread

[Sensei]

Do we have more evidence for/against COVID seasonality yet? That seems like an open question and I haven't come across much in the way of an answer.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.was...outputType=amp

Not great evidence which is why I refer to season variations as luck. However, there are 4 other Coronaviruses in seasonal circulation and the SARS-Cov-1 disappeared in the Summer 17 years ago. We need that luck since New Yorkers are trying their hardest to replace Poles as the butt of all stupid jokes.

[Nephrology]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.was...outputType=amp

Not great evidence which is why I refer to season variations as luck. However, there are 4 other Coronaviruses in seasonal circulation and the SARS-Cov-1 disappeared in the Summer 17 years ago. We need that luck since New Yorkers are trying their hardest to replace Poles as the butt of all stupid jokes.

Interesting. Yeah, the UW projections have it peaking here around May 1. So far Denver is OK, but we have a young and stupid demographic in this city so who knows.

While NY isn't doing great, I am also pretty worried about other growing hotspots - in particular, Florida and Louisiana. I can't really say those states have done a better job with social distancing, either, and they have a lot less in the way of healthcare infrastructure and a lot more poor (LA) and elderly (FL) residents than NY. Their only hope is that lower population density buys them some time.

There was an article recently that suggested COVID had made its way into the Villages. That seems like a recipe for disaster.

[farscott]

NYC has become a giant roadblock to a quick, seasonal resolution in the US. By quick I mean it was very possible that we could see a peak in new cases in roughly 4 weeks followed by a gradual decline over 4-8 weeks to the point where social distances could be relaxed in certain regions. That would have meant a 2-3 month curve predicated on a little luck from seasonal variation and extreme social isolation. Of course, the virus would likely return in the Winter, but at least our mitigation strategies would be strengthened by then.

Unfortunately, NYC is not on board with this program and is still half-assing the necessary social distancing to allow a quick seasonal resolution. Making matters worse, the region has become a virtual shipping center for infection around the country. Every hour this continues the likelihood of a quick, 2-3 month return toward some semblance of normalcy goes down.

Thus, I think the real danger (and irony) of this virus is its variable clinical course and relatively low mortality. This has caused us to avoid and delay acting on the difficult Constitutional and societal questions regarding the liabilities of an open, heterogeneous society in the face of extreme danger that would be forced upon us if this was SAR-CoV-1 or MERS (both have roughly 20% case fatality rate).

I have been wondering if we might see a nationwide "ground stop" for commercial aircraft and other travel restrictions as a means of "flattening the curve". It might kill some of the airlines, but it could save lives if the delay in spreading the virus can be leveraged.

[Balisong]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.was...outputType=amp

Not great evidence which is why I refer to season variations as luck. However, there are 4 other Coronaviruses in seasonal circulation and the SARS-Cov-1 disappeared in the Summer 17 years ago. We need that luck since New Yorkers are trying their hardest to replace Poles as the butt of all stupid jokes.

Another interesting look here at the world case map.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...w-coronavirus/

While I would certainly not consider this any kind of hardcore evidence, the southern hemisphere has been in its summer time, and across the board seems to have less cases than the northern hemisphere, although their cases are rising also. Now, maybe that's just because people were already laying low at home like we usually do here in Phoenix in the summer. Or maybe all those places have far less population density, I'm not sure. It will be interesting to see case growth/decline as the north heats up and the south cools down.

[Nephrology]

Another interesting look here at the world case map.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...w-coronavirus/

While I would certainly not consider this any kind of hardcore evidence, the southern hemisphere has been in its summer time, and across the board seems to have less cases than the northern hemisphere, although their cases are rising also. Now, maybe that's just because people were already laying low at home like we usually do here in Phoenix in the summer. Or maybe all those places have far less population density, I'm not sure. It will be interesting to see case growth/decline as the north heats up and the south cools down.

It's also important to note that countries in the southern hemisphere probably aren't testing nearly as rigorously as they are in SK/CN or even western europe/USA.

[Balisong]

Also probably true. But I wonder if that's due to them not having as many suspected cases of it, or not having the means/materials to do it but WANTING to do it?

This would all be so fascinating if it wasn't so terrifying.

[Wondering Beard]

Israeli doctor in Italy says new, innovative treatments ‘flattening the curve’

"In Padua, the autoimmune medicine Tocilizumab has proven effective, but can only be used once it is established that no other viruses or bacteria are present in the patients’ bodies, he said. The hospital where he works has also seen positive results from the antiviral drug Remdesivir, he added."

"He said medics have been forced to be creative, giving an example from the city of Parma where patients who couldn’t be put on a respirator using a tube were attached to it using a snorkeling mask, with a part that connects it to the machine being printed in a 3D printer."

"While at first, doctors viewed the new coronavirus as an extremely infectious flu, they have since learned that the disease is highly unpredictable and that patients’ conditions can change drastically several times during a day, while a medication can take hours to show an effect."

"One technique he said had yielded dramatic results was to have patients lie on their stomach instead of on their back while on a ventilator. “Suddenly the oxygen level in the blood jumped by hundreds of percents,” he said."

That last bit seems counter intuitive, but I'll let our medical professionals judge it and the whole article for accuracy.

[Wondering Beard]

Coronavirus cure: French researchers completed new additional study on 80 patients, results show a combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to be effective in treating COVID-19

80 patients and no control group sounds unconclusive to me, but I would like to have hope.

[peterb]

"One technique he said had yielded dramatic results was to have patients lie on their stomach instead of on their back while on a ventilator. “Suddenly the oxygen level in the blood jumped by hundreds of percents,” he said."

That last bit seems counter intuitive, but I'll let our medical professionals judge it and the whole article for accuracy.

I’ve seen several mentions of prone ventilation for COVID -19 patients.
Found this:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4408655/

[Rockey]

I’ve seen several mentions of prone ventilation for COVID -19 patients.
Found this:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4408655/

Placing ventilated patients in the prone position when they are having a hard time oxygenating on maximum ventilation support is pretty standard practice. We have specialized beds that we used to accomplish this in the ICU.

It seems counterintuitive until you look at the shape of the lung and blood vessels and then take into account how gravity and disease affect the alveoli and interchange of gases within the lung in various positions.