Coronavirus thread

[jtcarm]

the deaths attributable Spanish Flu pandemic of 1917 (ironically, likely originated in the US and not spain) are very hard to get a fix on for lots of reasons. However, no matter how you slice the numbers, a shitload of people died, and there is no reason to think this virus won't lead to a similar outcome. Even a 1% case fatality rate is a lot of people.

There's debate about whether it originated in the U.S. or British troops in France. The fact that it started around 1917 sort of hints at the AEF carrying it to France.

It killed approximately 0.6% of the US population, including my great-grandmother.

While health care and health awareness are exponentially better today, our population is also far more concentrated and mobile.

[Mark D]

My wife's internship for her Master's in Environmental Health was with the Medical Reserve Corps.

I guess if you need somewhere for The Infected to die while you make press releases that "we did something!" it's a good idea.

That was my interpretation. Thanks for the confirmation.

[critter]

There's debate about whether it originated in the U.S. or British troops in France. The fact that it started around 1917 sort of hints at the AEF carrying it to France.

It killed approximately 0.6% of the US population, including my great-grandmother.

While health care and health awareness are exponentially better today, our population is also far more concentrated and mobile.

And, as noted upthread, the supply line/life saving supplies/ICU bed situation are under the JIT/full capacity model. The exponentially better care available is pretty meaningless to the seriously ill overflow.

[Stephanie B]

The Tokyo Olympic Games have been pushed to 2021.

[Mark D]

Stanford University has developed an interactive model showing the impact of social distancing. It's similar to the Imperial College study released a week or two ago, but appears to be written for the lay person.

Similar to the Imperial College study, they show the effect of stopping and starting social distancing, in distinct phases. They call it the "light switch" approach. The government implements social distancing to flatten the curve, then a month or two later relaxes the requirements. When the new cases start to climb again, social distancing is reintroduced, and so on.

The writing style is quite good. Maybe this will help the folks who have a hard time understanding exponential growth, limited hospital capacity, and why NPIs are important despite the economic impact.

https://covid-measures.github.io/

[Chance]

India just announced a "total ban on venturing out of your homes". Everyone knew that was coming, but it's still shocking to see.

[JclInAtx]

Most of the populous counties of Texas now going to shelter in place. Dallas has gone, central Texas is going in the next 24 hours.

Its official - Austin is through April 13th, San Antonio the 9th. I heard Williamson county too but haven't read anything yet.

[RoyGBiv]

Is there a "Staying Healthy - Coronavirus Edition" thread somewhere.?

Biggest issue for me is sleeplessness. Can't sleep more than 4-ish hours a night, not hungry but eating at least 2 good meals a day, lost 6+ pounds in last 10 days, not intentionally. At least my muscled BMI is heading towards the "Vent not excluded" zone. . Do docs consider physical condition as a factor in resource limitation decisions? I'm 55 but in pretty good shape. Broad shoulders and chest, but no 6-pack... Maybe a 2-pack. Low body fat but being broader and shorter puts the basic BMI number in the overweight category. I doubt anyone would say I'm overweight. The "no vent for you" possibility definitely occupies my mind more than other concerns.

Been eating healthy, actually, just not hungry so portions are smaller than usual. Exercising 2x-3x/day. Brisk 2-mile walks in AM, more casual walk and distance-visiting the neighbors after dinner (good for mental health). Crunches, push-ups, etc. 2-3x/week. The extra exercise + <appetite would explain the weight loss. I suppose worry burns calories too.

Back on a daily vitamin + extra D3, conscious of staying hydrated. Peeing clear all day. (you know you needed to know that ).

Working on work-related stuff trying to help where I can. That has been a big help for my mindset. And a good distraction. Being a good neighbor. Wife mowed the neighbors lawn (both of them are home-bound), told me to edge and blow (phrasing!). Their lawn service flaked out on them a few weeks ago... 75 bags of mulch in the driveway waiting on the rain to stop. Tomorrow looks possible.

I'm fairly proactive and finding it tough to watch the slow-motion tsunami heading our way with people still being stupid. Worried about my kids, one is bunkering in NC. Nothing I can do about it. Turned off the TV news a few days ago (too much noise and drama) which has proven helpful, get most of my updates from this thread (thanks!) and a bit from online news.

If I could get some better sleep, I think I'd be ok... Tried melatonin, OTC sleep aid, bourbon (not all together... may try that next ... (Kidding). Not too much trouble getting to sleep, but I'm done after 4 hours. Worked with a guy that took Ambien to sleep, he'd forget that we decided things and come in the next day all mad about things we worked out the day before. I don't need that.

I feel like I'm doing most of the "Healthy Lifestyle" things right. Any ideas on coping/mindset/etc are welcome. Wife suggested meditation... maybe yoga.

I briefly considered suggesting setting up a MS Team for this thread. Imagine the wondrous cluster that would be! Some things (and people) are better unseen.

I feel a bit better just having shared this. Hope you are all coping well. I imagine that people proactive enough to carry guns are struggling with a bit of helplessness right about now. You are not alone.

/core dump

[RevolverRob]

We will pass 400,000 confirmed cases today, case fatality rate (CFR) globally is ~4.3%, but Italy accounts for fully 1/3 of those deaths. Subtracting Italy we're at a 2.75% CFR. In the U.S. we're starting to settle in on a 1% CFR, at least in New York State, the only place where we have adequate testing to any degree, currently.

Stanford University has developed an interactive model showing the impact of social distancing. It's similar to the Imperial College study released a week or two ago, but appears to be written for the lay person.

Similar to the Imperial College study, they show the effect of stopping and starting social distancing, in distinct phases. They call it the "light switch" approach. The government implements social distancing to flatten the curve, then a month or two later relaxes the requirements. When the new cases start to climb again, social distancing is reintroduced, and so on.

The writing style is quite good. Maybe this will help the folks who have a hard time understanding exponential growth, limited hospital capacity, and why NPIs are important despite the economic impact.

https://covid-measures.github.io/

It's really good and the figures drive the point home, that a lot of people are going to die and hospital capacity will be overwhelmed not once but probably twice. Because Americans are not going to social distance for 90-days, then lift then go back then lift then go back. It simply will not happen.

BEST case scenario I can reasonably think of is this; I very generously gave the first case to social distancing time at 60-days (it is probably closer to 75), social distancing time is 45-days, because that's pretty much going to be it. Then we lift and have 90-days before cases rebound and we start social distancing again for another 45-days.



At this point we're just trying to buy time to get hospital capacity up for the eventual flood. It's not an if merely a when. The Spanish Influenza coming in 3-waves is the way to think about this. We'll be riding the coronavirus for 18-months and impact waves for years.

[Nephrology]

We'll be riding the coronavirus for 18-months and impact waves for years.

I'd like to believe this isn't true, but so far there is no real evidence to suggest this won't occur.