Page 266 of 725 FirstFirst ... 166216256264265266267268276316366 ... LastLast
Results 2,651 to 2,660 of 7244

Thread: Coronavirus thread

  1. #2651
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Heading for the hills
    Quote Originally Posted by peterb View Post
    A look at why COVID-19 has been so deadly in Italy:

    "The bottom line is that the coronavirus hit Italy and South Korea very differently in terms of age at around the same time and the same level of the outbreak — at least the level that we noticed in terms of confirmed cases — thereby causing a much higher number of deaths in Italy. An implication is that simply tracing the number of confirmed coronavirus cases by country over time, as many graphs and website currently do, is not telling the full story. The raw number of cases is a rather poor predictor of deaths by COVID-19, at least in the short-run. If the virus spreads predominantly among young people, as appears to have been the case in South Korea, there is no immediate risk of collapse to the hospitals. However, if it spreads to the old population, as in Italy, collapse is looming; and it might be a matter of days."
    I’m sure this is an overly simplistic explanation, but I wonder if it spread the way it did among the age groups of those two countries because of how those groups did, or did not, using social distancing. My observation of people in the U.S. is that the fairly young (teens) and the fairly old (60’s and older) are the ones mostly blowing off social distancing. (This is a sweeping generalization with all the caveats that go with that sort of thing.).

  2. #2652
    Quote Originally Posted by Tensaw View Post
    I’m sure this is an overly simplistic explanation, but I wonder if it spread the way it did among the age groups of those two countries because of how those groups did, or did not, using social distancing. My observation of people in the U.S. is that the fairly young (teens) and the fairly old (60’s and older) are the ones mostly blowing off social distancing. (This is a sweeping generalization with all the caveats that go with that sort of thing.).
    "Hence, the question remains why the age distribution of cases is shaped so differently in Italy compared to South Korea. It has also been pointed out that the testing procedures for coronavirus in the countries are very different — Italy has predominantly been testing people with symptoms of a coronavirus infection, while South Korea has been testing basically everyone since the outbreak had become apparent. Consequently, South Korea has detected more asymptomatic, but positive cases of coronavirus than Italy, in particular among young people.
    A complementary reason is that the Korean outbreak took place mainly among followers of the Shincheonji megachurch/sect in and around the city of Daegu. Possibly, many followers of this movement are of relatively young age, explaining the unusual spike of cases among the 20–29-year-olds once testing intensified around this group. This might have also prevented the virus from spreading extensively among the Korean elderly so far. With regard to Italy, we do not know who spread the virus among the old population of the North — but the surprisingly high number of tourists that have been diagnosed with coronavirus after returning from trips to Northern Italy suggests that the unnoticed and asymptomatic spread of the virus has probably been going on there for quite some time, building up to then ravage the elderly."

  3. #2653
    Member JHC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    North Georgia
    Quote Originally Posted by Tensaw View Post
    I’m sure this is an overly simplistic explanation, but I wonder if it spread the way it did among the age groups of those two countries because of how those groups did, or did not, using social distancing. My observation of people in the U.S. is that the fairly young (teens) and the fairly old (60’s and older) are the ones mostly blowing off social distancing. (This is a sweeping generalization with all the caveats that go with that sort of thing.).
    On report about Italy I read had an interesting angle. Italy it said had a high-ish older population of course but also, young Italians interact with their grandparents a lot. Sounded like normal daily life was sharing dinner with them and often times homes. So this increased the broad sweeping of the infection from the socially active young into the older folks environment.
    “Remember, being healthy is basically just dying as slowly as possible,” Ricky Gervais

  4. #2654
    Quote Originally Posted by JHC View Post
    On report about Italy I read had an interesting angle. Italy it said had a high-ish older population of course but also, young Italians interact with their grandparents a lot. Sounded like normal daily life was sharing dinner with them and often times homes. So this increased the broad sweeping of the infection from the socially active young into the older folks environment.
    And if you only test people with strong symptoms, you're going to miss a lot of asymptomatic carriers.

    I read another story in which several Italian priests were quoted as saying things like "It seemed like an unusually hard winter for the old people...", suggesting that it was incubating well before it was recognized as coronavirus.

  5. #2655
    One thing I haven't seen mentioned is testing to see who has HAD the virus. That's probably going to be a blood draw and titer? As this goes on, and a lot of people get through it with few or no symptoms, it's going to be important to identify who is "immune" and can resume contact with some degree of safety.

  6. #2656
    Site Supporter
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Location
    Away, away, away, down.......
    Quote Originally Posted by peterb View Post
    One thing I haven't seen mentioned is testing to see who has HAD the virus. That's probably going to be a blood draw and titer? As this goes on, and a lot of people get through it with few or no symptoms, it's going to be important to identify who is "immune" and can resume contact with some degree of safety.
    Check post 2656 in this thread, and a buddy sent me a link to another company that’s rolling out an antibody test.

  7. #2657
    Quote Originally Posted by peterb View Post
    And if you only test people with strong symptoms, you're going to miss a lot of asymptomatic carriers.

    I read another story in which several Italian priests were quoted as saying things like "It seemed like an unusually hard winter for the old people...", suggesting that it was incubating well before it was recognized as coronavirus.
    That younger crowd on the chart? -- hand delivering it to the elderly of their families, who then pass it to each other, etc. - untested in Italy because no to mild symptoms in the young carriers but tested and isolated in S. Korea.
    You will more often be attacked for what others think you believe than what you actually believe. Expect misrepresentation, misunderstanding, and projection as the modern normal default setting. ~ Quintus Curtius

  8. #2658
    Modding this sack of shit BehindBlueI's's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Location
    Midwest
    Quote Originally Posted by DIESEL View Post
    You sir are a class a douche fruit, I hope you are outside the statistical age range for survival so WHEN you are infected you can't receive treatment.
    He's been put on read only but let's dial back on the wishing for other people's deaths to teach them a lesson.
    Sorta around sometimes for some of your shitty mod needs.

  9. #2659
    banana republican blues's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    Blue Ridge Mtns
    Quote Originally Posted by Sidheshooter View Post
    Depends if he lives through this.

    I’m only fractionally joking, considering his age and recent heart attack; so many of our key political leaders are just so old. Biden? Trump has a clean bill of health, but he’s still in the high risk zone. And don’t even get me started on RBG—she really needs to avoid this virus to keep her spot on the bench. What happens if the top dem contenders end up on ventilators? Not probable, but stranger things have happened. It’ll be interesting to watch all this unfold.

    I'm not speaking of Bernie's health. I'm speaking about the concept of healthcare for all. Whether he lives or dies doesn't change whether the voting public will come around to that point of view, now or in the future.
    There's nothing civil about this war.

    Read: Harrison Bergeron

  10. #2660
    Site Supporter HeavyDuty's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
    Location
    Not very bright but does lack ambition
    I’m not a medical person. Yeah, I was an EMT decades ago and a First Responder (its an actual class of license in IL) for twenty years after that, but I was only concerned with knowing stabilization techniques until the pros showed up. But, I was also a planner in the emergency management community for those same twenty years, and professionally I’m an insurance underwriter and risk manager so I have opinions.

    We absolutely need to get to the SK model of widespread testing as soon as possible. They had the advantage of a smaller population and the ability to manufacture tests quickly, but they also have what I think is a cultural attitude to protect the herd that we don’t - my experience with the Japanese is the same, and I suspect other Asian cultures too. Until we start identifying asymptomatic carriers we are shooting in the dark.

    And, closer to home - identifying asymptomatic carriers will allow us to get their antibodies into the IVIG supply faster. We have an entire class of people who are at much higher risk for this because they are either situationally immunocompromised or truly immunodeficient like my partner’s kids, and getting the plasma from asymptomatic carriers with COVID-19 antibodies into processing will be critical.
    Ken

    BBI: ...”you better not forget the safe word because shit's about to get weird”...
    revchuck38: ...”mo' ammo is mo' betta' unless you're swimming or on fire.”

User Tag List

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •