Originally Posted by HCM
Aaaand... first time I’ve seen this from SGA:
Aaaand... first time I’ve seen this from SGA:
”But in the end all of these ideas just manufacture new criminals when the problem isn't a lack of criminals.” -JRB
Are you self-quarantining?
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Not another dime.
You should honestly self quarantine for 2 weeks and monitor for symptoms. It's the responsible thing to do
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The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team study has been discussed up thread. There may have been a link to the actual paper, but I didn't see it. In case anyone is interested, here it is, straight from the source,
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19mortality and healthcare demand
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
Opens to a pdf. Twenty pages long and well written, i.e. you don't need to be a MD or researcher to get the main points.
That would be easy. Just close it up for a week and let the virus decay out.
I wouldn't say it's like the flu. I don't think we have a good answer yet, but my guess is that it's somewhere in between the flu and chickenpox. I haven't had time to read as much as I'd like, but some coronaviruses are cleared and some are not. We don't know yet what the correlate of protection will be, but for the vast majority of viruses, you need antibodies for protection. This whole pandemic emerged from a single event. That is a severe bottleneck. The kind of genetic diversity that is present across all serotypes of influenza A is far far greater than the diversity in the quasispecies of SARS-CoV-2 that is circulating now.
I am hoping for this fall. Don't plan any trips this summer. There's a good chance that Tom is right, so you might not want to plan on any trips next summer either.
I don't think the data exist to support a two significant figure answer here. Based on what little I've read, I'd guess 60-70% infection rate. This math is based on the reproduction rate of the virus. If a virus has a reproductive rate of 10, then you need 90% immunity to prevent epidemic spread in the population. If a virus has a reproductive rate of 2, then you need at least 50% immunity to prevent epidemic spread, roughly speaking. So the 56% prediction would say that the reproductive rate for this virus is slightly above two, which I think is optimistic. The whole point of the social distancing is that it reduces the frequency of susceptible contacts, so the reproductive rate under social distancing conditions will be lower than it would be at a concert. Theoretically, if we all stayed home for ~3 weeks and had no contact with anyone outside our household groups, then everyone who has the virus now would die or recover and then we could all go about our business again. I'm sticking with my prediction of 2 million deaths in the US, and hoping that I'm wrong. The worldwide mortality rate is slightly greater than 4% now for confirmed cases.
Anticipated ship dates for swabs by some vendors is not until June, but the FDA has approved more swabs for use. Yesterday there were two preferred swabs and today perhaps a dozen additional models were approved. Those have rapidly gone out of stock, but at least they'll be used for additional testing. This will help a lot and is the main thing that I was trying to deal with today/tonight. The FDA also approved collection in saline, so the shortage of transport medium shouldn't jam people up anymore. Lots of details in swabs -- different coatings on the bristles, different head diameters and lengths, different materials. Cotton on a wood shaft is no good because it screws with the RT-PCR reaction.
You sir are a class a douche fruit, I hope you are outside the statistical age range for survival so WHEN you are infected you can't receive treatment.
I heard the term covid-19 denier equated with climate change denier and used in a context written by a one of the latter, and this statement was from a gentleman living in downtown Seattle.
https://abc13.com/6013971/?fbclid=Iw...JAqi5EGuzJ-OVA
Texas couple hires mariachi band to play inside a crowded H-E-B to help ease coronavirus tensions
SCHERTZ, Texas (KTRK) -- Many Texans have been frantically searching local grocery stores to prepare their homes for the COVID-19 outbreak.
One couple attempted to ease this anxiety at their local grocery store.
Emmanuel and Maira Mallen hired a band to serenade frantic shoppers with mariachi music at their local H-E-B Plus.
"I woke up to my feed full of coronavirus stuff. I just felt it would be an uplift at our local H-E-B," the couple told ABC13. "It has been so tense lately. When they started playing, the mood (changed) immediately."
Customer Ashley Lyons shared a video on Facebook showing the band playing around 11:30 a.m in Schertz, Texas, 25 miles northeast of San Antonio.
"So, we are going down the same way the titanic did, just in the San Antonio way," Lyons wrote in the caption. "Thanks to Emmanuel Mallen for bringing the fun in!"
As the numbers of coronavirus cases rise in the Houston area, locals have been stocking up on food and supplies. Many shoppers have reported seeing empty shelves at their local grocery stores.
From up thread:
This totally blows my mind, we are planning on going to NC this summer. I'm now thinking that we my be canceling that as well. I'm not crying on my beer, just starting wrap my head around the impact that this is going to have on just about every facet of our (collective our) lives. I work at a small college, we were already making serious cuts (as a lot of high ed is doing) to stem the red ink, this my be the final nails in the coffin for a lot of struggling businesses.But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
Last edited by Whirlwind06; 03-20-2020 at 05:22 AM.
A look at why COVID-19 has been so deadly in Italy:
https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausa...y-c4200a15a7bf
"The bottom line is that the coronavirus hit Italy and South Korea very differently in terms of age at around the same time and the same level of the outbreak — at least the level that we noticed in terms of confirmed cases — thereby causing a much higher number of deaths in Italy. An implication is that simply tracing the number of confirmed coronavirus cases by country over time, as many graphs and website currently do, is not telling the full story. The raw number of cases is a rather poor predictor of deaths by COVID-19, at least in the short-run. If the virus spreads predominantly among young people, as appears to have been the case in South Korea, there is no immediate risk of collapse to the hospitals. However, if it spreads to the old population, as in Italy, collapse is looming; and it might be a matter of days."
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