Coronavirus thread

[Maple Syrup Actual]

If you lean more towards the German authorities, they are relying on their excellent, extensive healthcare system.

If you lean more towards international observers like NN Taleb, they are certifying under a better-looking comorbid CoD whenever remotely possible. If you look at things like how some European countries tend to categorize infant mortality, that would make some sense, though in all fairness, it's probably some of both.

China, for example, (rarely a good example of accurate statistics) has an absurdly low number of deaths from influenza, like <200 per year for 1.4 billion people, because their recording methods are almost directly opposite to those in the US. Where the US estimates flu deaths mathematically and records them in practically any case of "deaths that occur in people for whom influenza infection was likely a contributor to the cause of death, but not necessarily the primary cause of death”, in China if there is anything else at all going on, either pre-existing or secondary to the flu, that goes on the records instead.

This is definitely more plausible than the explanation my wife gave.

[YVK]

For some best-case scenario stuff...why not Zoidberg? Or Germany?



What is that, a .26% mortality rate? What are the Germs doing that makes them so superior?

I was listening to the BBC interviewing some German health official woman yesterday or the day before. The answer was that they didn't know. The speculative points made were a generally healthier population, stronger health care system, or that they will eventually catch up. The fact that Germany has more known cases than US points out to wider testing so maybe better isolation. But certainly interesting how Germans and Koreans enjoying a relatively low mortality rate.

[peterb]

These are valid numbers, but we should be cautious about whether they are actually "comparable". For example, almost all of them occur at relatively static rates (when viewed in terms of years, rather than decades), and those rates are influenced more by long-term trends in behaviour and healthcare services/technology/pharmacology, not by the introduction or proliferation of something with the potential for rapid, open-ended multiplication. While an infectious disease like COVID-19 has a high potential (probability, really) to increase rapidly and exponentially in a relatively short amount of time, the same can't be said of cerebrovascular disease.

Agree. But when people start talking about numbers of deaths, it's useful to have "standards" for comparison. If you want to know if number X is large or small, you have to compare it to something.

But the problem with looking at raw fatality numbers is that they're not equivalent in terms of impact. My understanding is that each COVID death probably represents a week or more of ICU time, along with all the resources and person-hours that entails. That's a huge difference from someone dying at home or on-scene in an accident.

[Caballoflaco]

I think our testing is so limited in the US that we’re just finding the worst cases. Here in central AL you still have to have a fever or known contact to be guaranteed a test. Our drive through tests fill up in a couple of hours and the test a couple hundred people a day. In mobile they haven’t instituted widespread testing because there isn’t enough ppe for the folks taking samples.

If you look at the cruise ship, Germany and Korea where there seems to be the most widespread testing the death rate seems to be lower than many estimates.

[OlongJohnson]

Go in your man cave. Turn on the stereo. Reload ammo until you run out of a component.

Then change calibers and keep going.

I was listening to the BBC interviewing some German health official woman yesterday or the day before. The answer was that they didn't know. The speculative points made were a generally healthier population, stronger health care system, or that they will eventually catch up. The fact that Germany has more known cases than US points out to wider testing so maybe better isolation. But certainly interesting how Germans and Koreans enjoying a relatively low mortality rate.

Several years ago, as I was doing my part in getting a whole bunch of people to be better direction followers, it occurred to me that there was likely an imperfect yet distinct tendency for direction followers to have greater odds of surviving something with life-threatening consequences for a lot of people and strict procedures/best practices that need to be adhered to for a best outcome. (I was thinking about war, but...) In other words, where the game is: get sloppy, get dead.

It's my observation that both Germans and Koreans tend to be excellent direction followers. I have no idea whether that is actually a factor in recent observations.

[HCM]

It has begun,

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/cr...I-TqxchzwR0EPU

Northern California woman attacked and robbed of her groceries outside Raley’s store

[willie]

Early in this thread, this possibility was put forth--that up to 500,000 Americans might die. Is this prediction still a consensus? Mention was made that some say that covid-19 virus is merely similar to flu. I'm curious about this viewpoint's origin. Can anyone explain?

I posed this question because I was seeking a concise reply to a family member who told me that the threat is overblown and compared it to the flu. Most certainly do I think he is wrong. Most assuredly do I believe he out of touch. I helped raise this man and am dismayed. So dismayed that his comment pushed me into despair. But I snapped back. I can summarize data from immunologists as well as the next guy and have been sending him our links. I guess it's a tinfoil thing. I have a roll somewhere. I must share.







back. I did tell him that unless his

[GyroF-16]

Is it an assumption that the area under the curves is the same? If so, does anyone with more bio knowledge than me think that assumption is justified? I get the math, and I understand the problems with the Lancet study. Just trying to get as good a technical grasp on it as possible.

If that's covered in the study, I apologize, I only read someone else's highlights.

To be clear- that chart was from the Imperial College study, not a Lancet article.

[Seven_Sicks_Two]

What is that, a .26% mortality rate? What are the Germs doing that makes them so superior?

With the world being what it is, I'd be real hesitant to call the Germans "superior" unless you want to feel the wrath of Woke Twitter

[hufnagel]

With the world being what it is, I'd be real hesitant to call the Germans "superior" unless you want to feel the wrath of Woke Twitter

maybe if we got the twits raging about that, instead of chicken littling this whole virus deal, we could get some calming going on?