Coronavirus thread

[Rex G]

Do you want the apolitical answer to that question?

We have a globally connected population. Where viruses originate really doesn't matter much, if they are allowed to spread unchecked, they become a global problem (e.g., pandemic). Since many countries and societies refuse to acknowledge the epidemiological impacts of viral spread, it isn't really "foreign" in many respects. The people making Americans sick are Americans at this point.

For example, if HIV originated in the Belgian Congo (one leading theory), do we call HIV/AIDs a foreign viral invasion? Or do we call it what it is a global pandemic?

At this point, we need not worry where the thing came from, we need to worry how we stop it from spreading unchecked. POTUS and many others want to play a political blame game, "This is China's fault!" -

No, it's the fault of ignorant people, ignoring the advice of intelligent people, and choosing to believe that they are smarter/stronger/faster/whateverer in the face of reality.

This is Dunning-Kruger run amok - it's hubris at, literally, the highest level of our country and society. Our own president and vice president have been exposed to this virus, not by the Chinese, but by an American. Security protocols should have been in place to prevent that from occurring, period. Calling this a 'foreign viral invasion' does not underscore the reality that we are at fault for our own problems.

This.

I am a blue-collar layman, but did actually start college with the idea of ending up somewhere in the biology or medical world. (I detoured into law enforcement, and stayed there.) Moreover, my wife has a Masters in public health, and an M.D. Though she was never licensed to practice medicine in the USA, she worked for an eye bank, and then for 21 years as a forensic investigator for the third-most-populous county in the USA, and she remains affiliated with the local OEM, on a volunteer basis. (Unfortunately, for this situation, she has to self-isolate, being in a worst-risk category for dying of COVID-19.)

Having said the above, we both see the staggering level of willful, ignorance, on so many levels, including the top elected levels of the federal government, particularly including the tweeter-in-chief, in all areas of science.

[Aisin Gioro]

Regarding the persistence and viability of the virus in the air and on surfaces, here is a new paper out from a Princeton/NIH/UCLA/CDC study (pending peer review):

[For reference: SARS-CoV-1 is the original SARS; HCoV-19 is the causative agent of COVID-19]

Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....09.20033217v1

The key points are:

• "We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel."
• "Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days."
• "On cardboard, HCoV-19 showed a considerably longer half life than SARS-CoV-1. Both viruses showed markedly longer viability on stainless steel and polypropylene"
• "Our results indicate that the greater transmissibility observed for HCoV-19 is unlikely to be due to greater environmental viability of this virus compared to SARS-CoV-1. Instead...Instead, there are a number of potential factors which could account for the epidemiological differences between the two viruses. There have been early indications that individuals infected with HCoV-19 may shed and transmit the virus while pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic...Other factors likely to play a role include the infectious dose required to establish an infection, the stability of virus in mucus, and environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity"
• "in contrast to SARS-CoV-1, most secondary transmission has been reported outside healthcare settings and widespread transmission in the community is being seen in several settings, such as households, workplace and group gatherings."

Nothing shocking, and it's actually a little better than some of the initial estimates that were based on similarities with prior documented coronaviruses, but something to be aware of. It's a bit longer in practical terms than something like influenza, but fortunately it's not looking like 14+ days as some early projections indicated. However, in epidemiological terms, the persistence of the virus in aerosols and on surfaces, especially combined with the ability of infected but asymptomatic people to transmit the virus for a substantial amount of time, all work as force multipliers for spreading infections.

[blues]

Having said the above, we both see the staggering level of willful, ignorance, on so many levels, including the top elected levels of the federal government, particularly including the tweeter-in-chief, in all areas of science.

So true.

It's reminiscent of...

[theJanitor]

If the man in the street ought not buy masks, then why are mask vendors shipping masks to stores? Would not limiting sales to health care institutions make more sense? At Walmart Everyman, Oedipus, and Antigone as well as the unfortunate Willie Horton will buy masks if they see them on shelves.

Back in early February, I tried ordering my masks for our business, from our ususal supplier, Grainger. They told me only gov't agencies and healthcare facilities were the only groups that could buy them. Sucks for my business, but it was the right thing to do

[Nephrology]

I’m trying to decide whether I will fly home from Manchester, NH Sunday or rent a car and drive. MHT is a small airport and I won’t be checking bags so I would clear Midway quickly. I think I’ll take my chances and mask up.

Drive, just my opinion

[Robert Mitchum]

Indoor range ….
not busy when I go in the afternoon … most times I am the only one there ...
I go Once a week.

Stay home for a Month and dry fire more .. or still go ?
Are the risk higher in that environment ?

[TC215]

NRA has cancelled the annual meeting in Nashville.

I just got notice a few minutes ago as I was finishing up my daughter’s T-ball practice that Little League International has suspended all activities nation-wide.

[JHC]

Regarding the persistence and viability of the virus in the air and on surfaces, here is a new paper out from a Princeton/NIH/UCLA/CDC study (pending peer review):

[For reference: SARS-CoV-1 is the original SARS; HCoV-19 is the causative agent of COVID-19]

Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....09.20033217v1

The key points are:

• "We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel."
• "Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days."
• "On cardboard, HCoV-19 showed a considerably longer half life than SARS-CoV-1. Both viruses showed markedly longer viability on stainless steel and polypropylene"
• "Our results indicate that the greater transmissibility observed for HCoV-19 is unlikely to be due to greater environmental viability of this virus compared to SARS-CoV-1. Instead...Instead, there are a number of potential factors which could account for the epidemiological differences between the two viruses. There have been early indications that individuals infected with HCoV-19 may shed and transmit the virus while pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic...Other factors likely to play a role include the infectious dose required to establish an infection, the stability of virus in mucus, and environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity"
• "in contrast to SARS-CoV-1, most secondary transmission has been reported outside healthcare settings and widespread transmission in the community is being seen in several settings, such as households, workplace and group gatherings."

Nothing shocking, and it's actually a little better than some of the initial estimates that were based on similarities with prior documented coronaviruses, but something to be aware of. It's a bit longer in practical terms than something like influenza, but fortunately it's not looking like 14+ days as some early projections indicated. However, in epidemiological terms, the persistence of the virus in aerosols and on surfaces, especially combined with the ability of infected but asymptomatic people to transmit the virus for a substantial amount of time, all work as force multipliers for spreading infections.

Does aerosolization mean a cloud of it hanging in the air or what? I hear droplets and I think mist settling quickly.

[Nephrology]

Does aerosolization mean a cloud of it hanging in the air or what? I hear droplets and I think mist settling quickly.

Effectively yes. Microscopic droplets that you produce each time you sneeze, cough, talk, burp, etc.

[MandoWookie]

Do you want the apolitical answer to that question?

We have a globally connected population. Where viruses originate really doesn't matter much, if they are allowed to spread unchecked, they become a global problem (e.g., pandemic). Since many countries and societies refuse to acknowledge the epidemiological impacts of viral spread, it isn't really "foreign" in many respects. The people making Americans sick are Americans at this point.

For example, if HIV originated in the Belgian Congo (one leading theory), do we call HIV/AIDs a foreign viral invasion? Or do we call it what it is a global pandemic?

At this point, we need not worry where the thing came from, we need to worry how we stop it from spreading unchecked. POTUS and many others want to play a political blame game, "This is China's fault!" -

No, it's the fault of ignorant people, ignoring the advice of intelligent people, and choosing to believe that they are smarter/stronger/faster/whateverer in the face of reality.

This is Dunning-Kruger run amok - it's hubris at, literally, the highest level of our country and society. Our own president and vice president have been exposed to this virus, not by the Chinese, but by an American. Security protocols should have been in place to prevent that from occurring, period. Calling this a 'foreign viral invasion' does not underscore the reality that we are at fault for our own problems.

I can't really summon much outrage at what boils down to a semantic argument. And I would classify HIV/Aids as an invasive foreign virus that became a pandemic. Same as this current one. I agree that it doesn't make much difference now.

But to my mind the failures dont seem to have been directed from on high, but have been systemic to the very groups and agencies that are supposed to be the experts on these events. And from my recollection this isn't a recent phenomenon. Or isolated to this administration.

We seem to have been very lucky for many years, and the institutions that we have set up and invested in to handle these events, have become unfocused and unserious in regards to their actual purpose. The people at the top of any agency or political body are fundamentally interchangeable. It doesn't matter if the people actually charged with carrying out the edicts and policies of the administration, dont actually do there jobs. If the actual bureaucracies tasked with implementing responses are unable to adequately perform there tasks because they have succumbed to the Iron Law of Bureaucracy, and have lost mission focus, and have been more concerned with political kowtowing, I dont see how any effective response can be expected, and they haven't been noted with previous responses to similar potential pandemics.