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Thread: Coronavirus thread

  1. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by RJ View Post
    I was wondering what “R0” was upthread, so I searched and found this helpful:

    https://www.healthline.com/health/r-...duction-number

    On topic - This stuff scares me. I have friends at work with family in China. Flu is no joke. We both had it last year; Mrs.RJ worse than me. We were getting treated at the clinic, and the Doc said he had four deaths in greater Clearwater FL alone (where we were living at the time). This crap is serious as a heart attack.

    I hope our respective governments get on top of this ASAP.
    First off, I'm not a virologist nor microbiologist - just a guy who researches just about everything in existence for the hell of it. So I'm sure others with much more actual knowledge will come along to elaborate or correct mistakes.

    For a bit of perspective -- if I remember correctly, which is a hit or miss these days, mumps had an R0 of around 8, and measles about 12 -- which are ridiculously infectious.

    The insidiousness of this one is the lack of immunity + the length of time people can show no symptoms at all and be spreading the virus + the length of time it can survive outside of a host on the back of an airplane seat or tray, luggage, pants leg, whatever, or floating in the breeze, etc.

    An early preliminary Wuhan 'study' with a very small sample (I think it was 41, which is next to nothing scientifically, but they were attempting to learn anything they could about this as quickly as possible for obvious reasons) indicated that males are actually more susceptible than females due to a naturally higher level/ratio of a specific enzyme which allows the virus to attach to the cells more easily.

    On a brighter note... Not long ago one of the ebola variants mutated into a less deadly form which pretty much snuffed out that epidemic by natural inoculation. Many influenza variants have done this as well. Mutations are not always a bad thing. The virus itself may intervene to slow itself down.
    You will more often be attacked for what others think you believe than what you actually believe. Expect misrepresentation, misunderstanding, and projection as the modern normal default setting. ~ Quintus Curtius

  2. #122
    Chasing the Horizon RJ's Avatar
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    I just heard Dr. Oz say on TV that the death rate on normal Flu is 1:1000, but this Corona virus is 1:50.

    Holy shit. Is that true?!

  3. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by RJ View Post
    I just heard Dr. Oz say on TV that the death rate on normal Flu is 1:1000, but this Corona virus is 1:50.

    Holy shit. Is that true?!
    I have been reading various versions of that number for days. After spending quite a bit of time looking in to it, the only honest answer is: how could anyone know? The Chinese have blocked all information and the only statistics available come from them.

    I will say this, everyday new information comes to light. Each time it’s the worst case scenario. Airborne? Check. Long incubation period? Check. Passed on during incubation period? Seems like it is. And on and on.....it’s like some perverse “choose your own adventure” children’s book where we keep getting the worst case scenario.

    As someone with kids who lives 8 miles from a major international airport in one of the most international cities in America I’m following this closely.

  4. #124
    Chasing the Horizon RJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EPF View Post
    I have been reading various versions of that number for days. After spending quite a bit of time looking in to it, the only honest answer is: how could anyone know?
    Crap I have no clue either.

    I know where I used to live in Clearwater, we had a lot of retirees, and of course one would expect the mortality rate to be higher than average, but it did shock me to hear we had 4 deaths last year just in the immediate area of our small clinic. And that was a normal, routine illness. You get a flu shot, hope to not get the flu, but if you do, you stay home and get rest and avoid contact to not give it to others. But that's it.

    As to mortality rates of this new virus, maybe @Nephrology or another board doc can weigh in.

    Seems like whatever the number, the Authorities are treating this pretty damn seriously.

  5. #125
    Quote Originally Posted by RJ View Post
    Crap I have no clue either.

    I know where I used to live in Clearwater, we had a lot of retirees, and of course one would expect the mortality rate to be higher than average, but it did shock me to hear we had 4 deaths last year just in the immediate area of our small clinic. And that was a normal, routine illness. You get a flu shot, hope to not get the flu, but if you do, you stay home and get rest and avoid contact to not give it to others. But that's it.

    As to mortality rates of this new virus, maybe @Nephrology or another board doc can weigh in.

    Seems like whatever the number, the Authorities are treating this pretty damn seriously.
    Definitely taking it seriously. Maybe mutation in the concern? Who knows.

    I guess the point I was trying to make is that no matter how much knowledge anyone has, doctor or otherwise, without reliable information from the Chineese no assessment can be made. It makes me very uncomfortable that they have refused international scientific help and specifically refused the American offers.

    It seems clear that the numbers of cases they are providing are low just based on anecdotal evidence. I watched the WHO press conference this week and let’s just say that confidence was not inspired 🙄

  6. #126
    Member TGS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RJ View Post
    Seems like whatever the number, the Authorities are treating this pretty damn seriously.
    Quote Originally Posted by EPF View Post
    Definitely taking it seriously.
    Well, by comparison, we only let non-essential personnel at US Embassy Freetown fly home during the last Ebola scare, whereas US Consulate Wuhan has been ordered evacuated and is essentially shut down, and every other mission in China that isn't directly in a "Coronavirus crisis zone", if you will, still having the option to fly home non-essential personnel.

    So, if we take as a barometer......
    "Are you ready? Okay. Let's roll."- Last words of Todd Beamer

  7. #127
    THE THIRST MUTILATOR Nephrology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RJ View Post
    I just heard Dr. Oz say on TV that the death rate on normal Flu is 1:1000, but this Corona virus is 1:50.

    Holy shit. Is that true?!
    The mortality rate for influenza depends on which numbers you use.

    Because the number of people who get sick from flu every year is so large as to be impossible to measure directly, the CDC uses mathematical modeling to estimate the number of people who a) get symptomatic flu; b) seek medical care for flu; c) are hospitalized for flu ; d) die from flu.

    So, the mortality rate depends on which number you use as the denominator (is it # of deaths vs everyone who gets sick? sees an MD for flu? requires hospitalization?) and how you think that compares to coronavirus numbers.

    Most likely the "total cases" of reported coronavirus are most comparable to either b or c. This is because without PCR based testing, you have no way of knowing if your upper resp. infxn is flu, coronavirus, or one of a million other viruses out there. You will not get PCR based testing unless you seek medical care, so the "denominator" for these stats is probably a big under-estimate of total patients actually sick with the virus (i.e. the current number of 12,000 mostly represents those sick enough to require care).

    If we accept that the mortality rate for coronavirus is probably based on a total case # that represents a a mix of people who present for medical care (b) and those who require hospitalization (c), a more comparable mortality rate for influenza is between 7% and 0.2% (based on most recent preliminary flu season data for 2018-19, found here).

    I will say that this new coronavirus has spread more rapidly than SARS, which is an interesting development. We'll see what happens in the long run but I am still not freaking out. It is still not anywhere near the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic in terms of overall # of cases (infected 61 million people in USA alone) and also still very unlikely to kill nearly as many Americans this year as regular influenza.

  8. #128
    Revolvers Revolvers 1911s Stephanie B's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe in PNG View Post
    Tyrannical states can't help it. Everything that makes the State look bad MUST be suppressed and covered up and lied about- even if thousands of people will die because of inaction.
    More like a classical monarchy. Nobody wins favor by being the one to bring bad news to the emperor. Nobody wins favor by being the one who makes the emperor look bad. So the tendency of the imperial bureaucracy will always be to try and minimize bad news and adverse effects. It's a pattern that's been repeated over and over again in China.
    If we have to march off into the next world, let us walk there on the bodies of our enemies.

  9. #129
    Quote Originally Posted by RJ View Post
    I just heard Dr. Oz say on TV that the death rate on normal Flu is 1:1000, but this Corona virus is 1:50.

    Holy shit. Is that true?!
    Ehhh whats his data. Hes a tv doc... salt shaker worth of salt.

    Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

  10. #130
    Chasing the Horizon RJ's Avatar
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    Jan 2014
    Quote Originally Posted by Nephrology View Post
    The mortality rate for influenza depends on which numbers you use.

    Because the number of people who get sick from flu every year is so large as to be impossible to measure directly, the CDC uses mathematical modeling to estimate the number of people who a) get symptomatic flu; b) seek medical care for flu; c) are hospitalized for flu ; d) die from flu.

    So, the mortality rate depends on which number you use as the denominator (is it # of deaths vs everyone who gets sick? sees an MD for flu? requires hospitalization?) and how you think that compares to coronavirus numbers.

    Most likely the "total cases" of reported coronavirus are most comparable to either b or c. This is because without PCR based testing, you have no way of knowing if your upper resp. infxn is flu, coronavirus, or one of a million other viruses out there. You will not get PCR based testing unless you seek medical care, so the "denominator" for these stats is probably a big under-estimate of total patients actually sick with the virus (i.e. the current number of 12,000 mostly represents those sick enough to require care).

    If we accept that the mortality rate for coronavirus is probably based on a total case # that represents a a mix of people who present for medical care (b) and those who require hospitalization (c), a more comparable mortality rate for influenza is between 7% and 0.2% (based on most recent preliminary flu season data for 2018-19, found here).

    I will say that this new coronavirus has spread more rapidly than SARS, which is an interesting development. We'll see what happens in the long run but I am still not freaking out. It is still not anywhere near the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic in terms of overall # of cases (infected 61 million people in USA alone) and also still very unlikely to kill nearly as many Americans this year as regular influenza.
    Thanks Neph. Hope all is well.

    I appreciate you guys who have to deal with this posting. I honestly dunno if I’d like to even go to a Hospital or ER these days. Eek.

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