Coronavirus thread

[Sensei]

A couple of discussions: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/h...-immunity.html and https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...01.18.427166v1 . Hopefully the PF med dudes and dudettes can chime in on the reliability of the second source. The gist of it is that the South African variant is less effected by both monoclonal antibodies and convalescent plasma, and possibly less vulnerable to the effects of the vaccine.

And by the way, to steal shamelessly from Dave Barry: "Little Lebowski and the Practicing IDBIL" would be a great name for a rock band.

I’ve got some bad news and not-so-bad news. The bad news is that it is correct that these monoclonal antibodies and convalescent plasma will not provide a meaningful benefit to the novel strains. The not-so-bad news is that this is not a departure from the status quo since these treatments really don’t work for our current stains. The data to support monoclonals is very week (especially in hospitalized patients who may be harmed), and the RECOVERY Trial just halted enrollment in the convalescent plasma arm after the planned interim analysis showed no benefit.

Some good news is that the current crop of mRNA vaccines will likely provide protection against severe disease from all of these strains. Protection against mild or asymmetric disease, or actually preventing infection is unknown.

[mtnbkr]

Depending on the size of the town/who get tested and why, I could imagine lots of reasons % positivity rates would swing wildly between town to town.

I wasn't questioning the swings, but the high numbers themselves in light of apparent fraud.

Still, if they're just anecdotes from friends of a friend, I would take them with a grain of salt. I don't really know if t's worth getting worked up over specific % positivity either way. We already known COVID is out there (not news anymore) and that it is highly contagious, and that the B117 strain circulating in teh community now is even more contagious than older clades.

These anecdotes are from unrelated and unconnected people (I would be the only connection) from divergent areas and backgrounds. The issue I have is that the numbers aren't trustworthy and people seem to be making it up as they go.

Cat's kind of out of the bag, these numbers may be interesting for public policy folks to stroke their beards over, but from a personal decision making perspective the only numbers I am reading are deaths and total hospitalized in my state/healthcare system. I just assume everyone out in the world has it and could give it to me and wear masks/distance/etc accordingly.

I haven't changed my habits. But, I am concerned that policy could be made/adjusted based on these positivity rates that are apparently fabricated. Look at what's going on in California with the insane (and apparently arbitrary) lockdowns and restrictions for example.

The reality is scary enough. We don't need to inflate numbers. That only serves to further erode trust in the government and organizations attempting to manage this.

Chris

[0ddl0t]

Re: pooling samples for faster tests


Dr. Ghaly (sort of California's version of Dr. Fauci) said today that one of the things California did to speed up testing was to not only pool test samples, but to vary the pool sizes depending on their estimated probability of a sample being positive. I.e. a low risk asymptomatic person getting a routine test would be pooled in a very large group, while a symptomatic person from a hot zone would have their test put in a small or no pool. Makes sense to me, and I thought it was interesting.

California has pulled 1 lot (41L20A) - 330,000 doses - of Moderna's vaccine due to alergic reactions (6 reported at one San Diego clinic)

The rest of the lot has been cleared to use

[idahojess]

I haven't changed my habits. But, I am concerned that policy could be made/adjusted based on these positivity rates that are apparently fabricated. Look at what's going on in California with the insane (and apparently arbitrary) lockdowns and restrictions for example.


Chris

The State of Inslee's Governor Inslee has made a less-than-10 percent test positivity rate a factor in whether a "regions" can reopen. Like, whether restaurants can serve indoor diners.

It seems incredibly arbitrary to me (and I'm just an attorney, not a man of "science").

The state's own website says that test positivity should be interpreted with caution, and it seems like the varying scenarios for why people are getting tested would skew the significance of a positivity rate. I.e. people getting tested before flying to Hawaii aren't likely to test positive, but people going to the doctor because they have symptoms are.

[Totem Polar]

Christ almighty, it’s Thursday of the first week of class, and I already have 5 students in quarantine, with two testing positive, and the rest awaiting results on themselves and roommates. This is going to be a brutal sprint to the finish—which I define in Machiavellian fashion as: me and mine getting dose #2.

At any rate, carry on...

ETA: y’all realize that tomorrow is the 1-year anniversary of this thread. What a hell of a thing.

[DrkBlue]

Christ almighty, it’s Thursday of the first week of class, and I already have 5 students in quarantine, with two testing positive, and the rest awaiting results on themselves and roommates. This is going to be a brutal sprint to the finish—which I define in Machiavellian fashion as: me and mine getting dose #2.

At any rate, carry on...

ETA: y’all realize that tomorrow is the 1-year anniversary of this thread. What a hell of a thing.

B.1.1.7.
It rolled the Brits. Likely what may be hitting your classes.

One of our local historians did some interesting small town write-ups on 1917-20 Pandemic. I say that because we treat it like a short duration event, but it was killing people for years. The deaths started in soldiers and young women who had recently moved away from town, then a few months the deaths slow arrived in small town. The stories from then were heart-rending, whole families except one child dying or both parents dying. The deaths would come in waves, which was probably some form of viral mutations manifesting.



But for the darkness in the history, I recognized a lot of family names of kids I grew up with 50 years later. The Spanish Flu was a bitch, but life went on and babies got made. We’ll get through this one too and then conveniently forget the lessons.

[pangloss]

The stories from then were heart-rending, whole families except one child dying or both parents dying.

My grandmother was born in 1908, so she was a little girl when the Spanish flu hit. I remember her telling me about a neighbor family that died--an entire household lost. Seven decades later, the thought of it was still enough to bring a tear to her eye.

[rdtompki]

And in the latest WHO (the hell are they to tell us what to do) has revised their PCR test guidelines having determined that 40 cycles creates way too many false positives, something that has been reported over the last several months. And we're rejoining and funding this clown show?

[Caballoflaco]

My grandmother was born in 1908, so she was a little girl when the Spanish flu hit. I remember her telling me about a neighbor family that died--an entire household lost. Seven decades later, the thought of it was still enough to bring a tear to her eye.

We still put flowers on the five unmarked gravestones of an entire family who was passing through my Grandmother’s small town in a wagon when they got sick and were allowed to stay in the local church. She helped my great grandmother and great grandfather bring them food and medicine and watched them die one by one.

[Welder]

We still put flowers on the five unmarked gravestones of an entire family who was passing through my Grandmother’s small town in a wagon when they got sick and were allowed to stay in the local church. She helped my great grandmother and great grandfather bring them food and medicine and watched them die one by one.

I don't know whether a like is appropriate but wow.