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Thread: Coronavirus thread

  1. #2561
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    Early in this thread, this possibility was put forth--that up to 500,000 Americans might die. Is this prediction still a consensus? Mention was made that some say that covid-19 virus is merely similar to flu. I'm curious about this viewpoint's origin. Can anyone explain?

  2. #2562
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom_Jones View Post
    I wouldn’t claim anything I say is educated, but I suspect, depending upon your definition of “normal”, sometime between 18 months and never.
    Youre right, I was a bit vague. According to my fiancee (just asked her) "normal" is:

    - overwhelming vast majority of people not being encouraged to stay home or engage in social distancing.
    - Most places not shut down due to the virus.
    - stores have a reliable stock of TP.
    - It stops being the only topic her coworkers discuss.

  3. #2563
    THE THIRST MUTILATOR Nephrology's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangloss View Post
    I didn't click through, but just seeing this post makes me think think that I should have offered @Nephrology a formal wager on chloroquine when it came up about 100 pages ago!
    Let's wait for the smoke to settle and see what ends up sticking. It's still very early days.

    An article by a NY area peds surgeon:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/o...gtype=Homepage

  4. #2564
    Quote Originally Posted by willie View Post
    Early in this thread, this possibility was put forth--that up to 500,000 Americans might die. Is this prediction still a consensus? Mention was made that some say that covid-19 virus is merely similar to flu. I'm curious about this viewpoint's origin. Can anyone explain?
    I don’t think there is a consensus yet about the most likely scenario. Data from other countries is, as they say, all over the map. If you go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you can see that Italy’s fatality rate for resolved cases is close to 40%, while in other countries it’s closer to 5%. Rates of increase in detected new cases also vary widely, partly due to differences in rates of testing.

    On March 16th the US had 4500 known cases. Today we’re almost at 12,000. Our fatality rate for closed cases is 60%, but we had a lot of elderly in the first wave.
    Last edited by peterb; 03-19-2020 at 03:41 PM.

  5. #2565
    Site Supporter ccmdfd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterb View Post
    I don’t think there is a consensus yet about the most likely scenario. Data from other countries is, as they say, all over the map. If you go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you can see that Italy’s fatality rate for resolved cases is close to 40%, while in other countries it’s closer to 5%. Rates of increase in detected new cases also vary widely, partly due to differences in rates of testing.

    Also,

    As a country we didn't start taking this thing really seriously until just a few days ago. Admittedly, there were some people and companies ahead of the game, and there are still some people out there who being dumbasses about it.

    It will probably take another week if not two to see if these measures have made any effect.

  6. #2566
    Quote Originally Posted by Warped Mindless View Post
    Is there still no reliable educated guess on when things will start to go back to normal?
    Honestly, I don't think we'll have any idea how this is going to play out until China lifts its lock down. If they lift their lock down and the virus takes off again, then we won't have "normal" until a reliable, safe vaccine is widely available, which is a year out at least.
    "Trying is the first step toward irritating those around you who know better." - @angry_prof

  7. #2567
    Wannabe Privateer RevolverRob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by willie View Post
    Early in this thread, this possibility was put forth--that up to 500,000 Americans might die. Is this prediction still a consensus? Mention was made that some say that covid-19 virus is merely similar to flu. I'm curious about this viewpoint's origin. Can anyone explain?
    There is no way of knowing at this point where the dust will settle. We're very much in the uphill portion of this disease.

    I think folks need to hear/read this in big bold letters so here goes:

    We are not going to return to "normal" for months, years, perhaps even decades. We are in the midst of a long-term, life and culture altering event, similar to a World War or 9/11 for the younger generations. A new normal will be established and we will eventually recover. However, before that many more people will get sick and more people will die.

    All Americans should begin to recognize and come to terms with a radically altered landscape the likes of which we haven't seen in the continental United States since the Civil War. There is no 'going back', while this is not a wholly existential threat for our nation and our people it is an existential threat for many individual Americans. To that end, we must work together while we simultaneously maintain our distance. We must support our healthcare workers, biomedical workers, and scientists to the extreme. We MUST recognize that our world today is vastly different from the one that existed 3-months ago. And that in 3-months it will be vastly different again.

    We must be patient and we must be strong in the face of the unknown, we must not fear it. The American people are resilient, strong, adaptable, and amazing. We will survive and we will thrive. We must work towards those goals, and though I know many are scared, terrified, afraid, we must never cease in achieving these goals. Each individual here and around our country needs to embrace this adversity. Allow it to shape them, make them stronger, make them more resilient. There will be more tests in our future and more threats to come. To that end, I call on each of you to help your neighbors, your fellow man, and yourselves. Together, we will endure.
    Seriously guys, are we not doing 'phrasing' anymore?

  8. #2568
    Quote Originally Posted by HCM View Post
    https://www.ksat.com/health/2020/03/...-social-norms/

    ’Quarantine shaming': US navigates radical new social norms
    I'm totally OK with this practice. Stupid should be made fun of and people should be shamed for acting like retards. Sorry, but we are little bit past this is just a stronger flu thing and just as we make fun of the flat earth idiots, so should we make fun of these idiots having parties and going to parties for no value added reason.

    Quote Originally Posted by Warped Mindless View Post
    Is there still no reliable educated guess on when things will start to go back to normal? I only ask because my fiancee ask me at least 10 times a day as does her mother.
    Anyone giving you what they claim to be a reliable estimate better have brown eyes, cause they are full of shit.

    Quote Originally Posted by RevolverRob View Post
    Stop giving them hospital beds. Problem solved.
    100000x to this. It would be a self limiting problem in short order.

    Quote Originally Posted by willie View Post

    Not related to the above is the question that my Catholic wife just now asked which is, "Where is the Pope, he hasn't said anything?"
    LOL... not worried for the Pope. Where are the poor altar boys?????

  9. #2569
    Mr. Shovel Lover Hambo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warped Mindless View Post
    Youre right, I was a bit vague. According to my fiancee (just asked her) "normal" is:

    - overwhelming vast majority of people not being encouraged to stay home or engage in social distancing.
    - Most places not shut down due to the virus.
    - stores have a reliable stock of TP.
    - It stops being the only topic her coworkers discuss.
    Same disclaimer as Tom. China isolated cities and in three months has more or less stopped the increase in cases. We've just started getting more serious about testing in some areas, and not too serious about isolation. It's going to be months, and people better start wrapping their heads around that.
    John Wick didn't kill all those people because they broke his toaster.-MickAK

  10. #2570
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    Quote Originally Posted by willie View Post
    Early in this thread, this possibility was put forth--that up to 500,000 Americans might die. Is this prediction still a consensus? Mention was made that some say that covid-19 virus is merely similar to flu. I'm curious about this viewpoint's origin. Can anyone explain?
    I think it's going to be eleventy billion

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