Coronavirus thread

[MickAK]

I think there's a certain amount of garbage in/garbage out on that state-by-state breakdown. I've been watching that site, and we've been fitting their projected curve reasonably well here in Washington.

In West Virginia, they've done very little testing, so I wonder how accurate the forecast is.

Guess we'll see.

I doubt there's going to be much that isn't GIGO until we have widespread antibody tests, and by the time we have those most people won't care enough to take them.

That being said, I think it's important to keep in mind that even we're in a situation where 'experts' are being put on the spot to make predictions and give information with incomplete data and a rapidly changing situation. If they say 'Well, not sure' people will just move on to the next 'expert' that will give an actual prediction or a soundbite worthy proclamation. They might equivocate a bit after giving it but of course people won't listen to that. My biggest concern about this whole thing is when it's over we're going to have a tough time getting people to take the next one seriously.

"All models are wrong, but some are useful."
George Edward Pelham Box

[scjbash]

I think there's a certain amount of garbage in/garbage out on that state-by-state breakdown. I've been watching that site, and we've been fitting their projected curve reasonably well here in Washington.

In West Virginia, they've done very little testing, so I wonder how accurate the forecast is.

Guess we'll see.

You may have heard some of the same things I'm hearing in regards to testing here. Quarantined because of exposure to a Covid patient? No test. Symptomatic but not sick enough to be hospitalized? Most likely told to stay home with no test. Symptomatic and sick enough to be hospitalized, but positive for flu? No test. Symptomatic, negative for flu, and hospitalized with pneumonia but the pneumonia "looks different than Covid pneumonia"? No test.

And locally the largest tri-state hospitals are in WV, so the Ohio and Kentucky residents who work here, spend their extracurricular time here, and are hospitalized and dying here are not on our official tally and don't get reported on.

I hear people saying they're glad it's not in my county yet, meanwhile I know that one of the county's largest businesses closed its doors because an employee tested positive. He lives five minutes away in Kentucky though so he doesn't exist...

[MVS]

If you take sotalol, Tikosyn or amiodarone to treat atrial fibrillation, you can cause a phenomenon called QT prolongation when combined with hydroxychloroquine. QT prolongation encourages the ventricular tachycardia. Hydroxychloroquine can also decrease the metabolism of beta blockers like metoprolol (but not atenolol). The AFib itself does not predispose you to having this problem. As always, this is the internet: if you have questions/concerns, ask your personal doctor.

Thanks. I take Flecanaide and Atenolol. I will ask my cardiologist just for the heads up.

[RoyGBiv]

If you take sotalol, Tikosyn or amiodarone to treat atrial fibrillation, you can cause a phenomenon called QT prolongation when combined with hydroxychloroquine. QT prolongation encourages the ventricular tachycardia. Hydroxychloroquine can also decrease the metabolism of beta blockers like metoprolol (but not atenolol). The AFib itself does not predispose you to having this problem. As always, this is the internet: if you have questions/concerns, ask your personal doctor.

Possible contraindication of meds put a scare into me because I've been on Labetalol for a few years now.
I went looking and found some lit on the combination which actually sounds positive.
Hopefully I read that right. My PCP is a Luddite and doesn't have a way to contact him by email.

https://www.drugbank.ca/drugs/DB00598 (scrolled to Drug Interactions and used searched box for Chloroquin)
Emphasis mine.

Chloroquine: The metabolism of Labetalol can be decreased when combined with Chloroquine.
Hydroxychloroquine: The risk or severity of QTc prolongation can be decreased when Hydroxychloroquine is combined with Labetalol.

[RoyGBiv]

My friend, the China warehouse owner, drove 20 hours (nobody wants to fly over there if it can be avoided) to meet with the owner of the China-brand mask supplier we've been sourcing. We have requests in hand totaling over 5 million masks. Seemed prudent to have a face to face on that size purchase.

The factory showed him into their materials warehouse, half full of rejected materials. They will be forced to shut production tomorrow for lack of acceptable incoming materials. From ~200K/day down to zero.

The meeting reinforced to us that the factory doesn't skimp on QC, and it was a good relationship builder. If there is supply from them down the road, we're in a better position to get a share of production. Small consolation for now.

Equally disappointing, the global-brand distributor we've been working with is still waiting for product that was ordered and paid for several weeks ago. Product is being diverted to highest cash bidder. Spot price is approaching what would have been considered "gouging" just a week ago. We're assessing what to do. If we buy at spot price and ship it, when will 3M catch up and price start to go down.? If we buy at spot, pay for shipping and duties, will I get arrested for selling it, even at cost, if some AG believes that price to be gouging?

On the plus side, we're hearing reports of many .Gov aircraft on the tarmac at PVG awaiting deliveries.

We're working to pick up quality product at a reasonable price where we can. Short term outlook is not good. We're not going to touch anything we think might be substandard.

[DC_P]

Here's a brilliant idea:

Red Bull Racing adviser and former racing driver Helmut Marko pushed for a "Corona Camp" to infect (and therefore inoculate) drivers as the team waited out downtime stemming from the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/03/30/...onavirus-camp/

[Paul D]

Possible contraindication of meds put a scare into me because I've been on Labetalol for a few years now.
I went looking and found some lit on the combination which actually sounds positive.
Hopefully I read that right. My PCP is a Luddite and doesn't have a way to contact him by email.

https://www.drugbank.ca/drugs/DB00598 (scrolled to Drug Interactions and used searched box for Chloroquin)
Emphasis mine.

The simple answer is that if you are hospitalized for COVID, they will stop all your medications and place you on the meds that are needed at that time. Most the interactive drugs (except for amiodarone) get out of your blood stream completely within 72 hours. The treatment protocol with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin is only like 5 days total. The chances of VT with the use of these drugs are super low but yet another burden on the care team to monitor during treatment.

[5pins]

I assumed it was due to trying to save PPE for frontline health workers, but after giving the "experts" the benefit of the doubt the whole time and them being wrong every time, I'm just assuming as a country we're going to learn through experience instead of copying what many in asia have already learned in SARS.

A related graphic I saw for mask usage
Attachment 50960

I found it funny when all this started and we were told not to wear masks because it wouldn't help. Yet I remember being told to wear a mask when I was having chem to help prevent me from getting something.


Anyway seems like the CDC is having second thoughts.

CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public.

Officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are considering altering the official guidance to encourage people to take measures to cover their faces amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a federal official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because it is an ongoing matter of internal discussion and nothing has been finalized.

[blues]

If it turns out we should've been wearing masks all along there are going to be some pretty unhappy campers out there...since a lot of time and effort will have been wasted while we could've been acting in more useful and constructive fashion.

Maybe we should turn to the South Koreans to run our health system.

[Nephrology]

I found it funny when all this started and we were told not to wear masks because it wouldn't help. Yet I remember being told to wear a mask when I was having chem to help prevent me from getting something.

The surgical/procedural masks probably won't help you avoid contracting the disease out in the world . I don't fully understand why the CDC recommended it, the most logical thing in my mind is that this may reduce spread by asymptomatic carriers.