Or maybe people will pull their heads out of their asses and start following best practices for containment and mitigation which will make rules like this unnecessary.Originally Posted by TheNewbie
Or maybe people will pull their heads out of their asses and start following best practices for containment and mitigation which will make rules like this unnecessary.
Ken
BBI: ...”you better not forget the safe word because shit's about to get weird”...
revchuck38: ...”mo' ammo is mo' betta' unless you're swimming or on fire.”
If covid-19 is truly a zoonotic disease, i.e. reservoir in bats that jumped to humans, than no it won't disappear. It wouldn't completely die out unless we can also completely exterminate the animal host. Think Ebola, where it isn't circulating constantly in humans because it kills us too fast. Now and then it jumps from it's animal reservoir into a human (or a few humans) and we see another outbreak.
Hopefully Chinese college researchers will be a little more careful...
Ken
BBI: ...”you better not forget the safe word because shit's about to get weird”...
revchuck38: ...”mo' ammo is mo' betta' unless you're swimming or on fire.”
I'm not really sure how to square that with the vaccine efficacy data we have from Moderna and Pfizer so far. Does he mention vaccines? The interview does appear to be recorded before that data was released, so not sure if he's changed his thoughts since then.The ID doc interviewed recently on Sam Harris feels we are stuck with this Coronavirus permanently. Just like the other 4-5 that cause colds.
I found the interview very informative. A bit chilling, but also encouraging. Essentially we are screwed until the end of 2021, PTSD'd from the virus til 2024 then a party breaks out
https://samharris.org/podcasts/222-p...-incompetence/
Would listen to the whole thing but I am in full time thesis writing mode so my brain has incredibly limited space for anything else ...
He mentioned vaccines and mentioned that we would need massive quantities of folks vaccinated and would take most of 2021. Basically said there would be no in person larger conference type meetings for sure til 2022. But this pre dates the vaccine releases recently. But these releases are still not available outside of trials right? So despite encouraging data, we don't have a vaccine available.
Yes, but it sounds like they are planning to roll out fairly quickly; I believe moderna and pfizer are both planning to apply for EUAs at the end of this month. Pfizer alone says they will be ready to distribute 20 million doses of their vaccine in the US in the first month of 2021. Hopefully coupled with products from other companies it will be rolled out fairly quickly.
I've made friends with people in pharma since this shit started, and this is their current opinion, too. I do not know if it's based on real numerical forecasts, though.
Moderna says 20 million doses available by end of this year.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...tephane-bancel
Pfizer says up to 50 million doses GLOBALLY this year and 1.3 billion through 2021
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-re...vid-19-vaccine
Will be interesting to see how Pfizer deals with their transportation and storage issues.
We'll be lucky to have widespread availability here by end of Q1, in my totally unqualified opinion.
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." - Thomas Jefferson, Virginia Constitution, Draft 1, 1776
Can other manufacturers be licensed to produce the vaccines to speed it to market?
Ken
BBI: ...”you better not forget the safe word because shit's about to get weird”...
revchuck38: ...”mo' ammo is mo' betta' unless you're swimming or on fire.”
To put those numbers @RoyGBiv shared, I recall seeing estimates earlier this based on R0 that we'd need about 2/3 of the population to have immunity for herd immunity to work. So something like 220M people in the USA, if we ignore those that have immunity from catching COVID already and whatever population % for which the vaccine is not effective.
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