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Thread: Coronavirus thread

  1. #6081
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balisong View Post
    It's very cool that they're already manufacturing it. But risky, cuz man if it doesn't get approved I can't imagine how much money that is down the drain. Fingers crossed for all of us though
    I'm not familiar with the process, but I wouldn't be surprised if they had assurances or expected to be able to get assurances. A problematic vaccine for, say, a cold is bad because getting a cold isn't that bad. An imperfect vaccine for something like Covid is a lot more acceptable. A vaccine aiming to prevent an active ebola outbreak can be even more imperfect, etc.

  2. #6082
    Good news on improved treatment lowering fatality rates in the US:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...19-death-rates

    Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups, including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness.
    The study, which was of a single health system, finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance.

    A look at the effectiveness of masks for air travel:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-plane-flights

    The new evidence comes largely from Hong Kong, where health officials have been meticulously testing — and tracking — all passengers who land in the city. "They test everybody by PCR on arrival, quarantine them in single rooms for 14 days and then test the passengers again," says infectious disease doctor David O. Freedman at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. So health officials there know which passengers boarded the plane while already infected with the virus and whether they could have infected anyone else on the plane.

    Freedman and his colleague have been analyzing these data, with a specific focus on one airline: Emirates.

    "Since April, Emirates has had a very rigid masking policy," Freedman says. Not only does the airline require passengers and crew members to wear masks, but flight attendants also make sure everyone keeps on their masks, as much as possible, throughout the entire flight.

    Freedman looked at all Emirates flights from Dubai to Hong Kong between June 16 and July 5. What he found is quite telling. During those three weeks, Emirates had five flights with seven or more infected passengers on each flight, for a total of 58 coronavirus-positive passengers flying on eight-hour trips. And yet, nobody else on the planes — none of the other 1,500 to 2,000 passengers — picked up the virus, Freedman and his colleague report in the Journal of Travel Medicine.

    "Those were flights with higher risk, and yet there was no transmission," Freedman says.

  3. #6083
    Member Balisong's Avatar
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    Those are a couple pieces of good news overall. Hopefully they're able to definitively lock down on those causes of lower mortalities and keep at improving it.

  4. #6084
    Site Supporter Sensei's Avatar
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    I was talking with a colleague and mentor last week about the impact that masking may have on disease severity. We know there is a LD50 (dose of pathogen that results in 50% mortality) in animal microbiology and virology studies. For example, I do studies on sepsis where I inoculate mice with pneumococcus and the concentration of bacteria injected down their trachea directly impacts the severity of their sepsis/pneumonia (and sometimes meningitis) that results. A very similar method is done in small animal respiratory virus studies.

    Thus, there is a very real possibility that masking is reducing the dose of COVID delivered to the nasopharyngeal region and therefore impacting mortality. If this is the case, the better the mask, the less severe the symptoms...
    I like my rifles like my women - short, light, fast, brown, and suppressed.

  5. #6085
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sensei View Post
    I was talking with a colleague and mentor last week about the impact that masking may have on disease severity. We know there is a LD50 (dose of pathogen that results in 50% mortality) in animal microbiology and virology studies. For example, I do studies on sepsis where I inoculate mice with pneumococcus and the concentration of bacteria injected down their trachea directly impacts the severity of their sepsis/pneumonia (and sometimes meningitis) that results. A very similar method is done in small animal respiratory virus studies.

    Thus, there is a very real possibility that masking is reducing the dose of COVID delivered to the nasopharyngeal region and therefore impacting mortality. If this is the case, the better the mask, the less severe the symptoms...
    This had made sense to me from very early on, given that the onset of symptoms is so offset from inoculation.

    However..... If an infected person wears a mask, are they constantly reinfecting/inoculating themselves, I wonder?
    "No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." - Thomas Jefferson, Virginia Constitution, Draft 1, 1776

  6. #6086
    Things are not going so well in Europe. France and Germany just announced lockdown's through November 30th. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN27D1JN has the full article. My favorite line is Macron saying "“We are all in the same position: overrun by a second wave which we know will be harder, more deadly than the first,” he said. “I have decided that we need to return to the lockdown which stopped the virus.” We'll, if the first lockdown had actually "stopped" the virus, they wouldn't be in worse shape now and needing a second lockdown, would they?
    I think this also pokes a big hole in the "if only Evil Orange Man had done better we wouldn't have such a bad pandemic now." France and Germany did pretty hard lockdowns with good public compliance and they're getting creamed again anyhow. Maybe flatten the curve was more like flatten the first curve. This was always my question when this thing started: what's the end game of the lockdown? We flatten the curve, then go back to normalish, and then start all over again. We've learned a lot about treatment and maybe that's the best we could hope for in the time frame we're considering; that's certainly an important win. But what did anyone really expect in terms of spread unless we get a solid vaccine?

  7. #6087
    A few additional data points if it helps...

    I'm on about day 12 of COVID now. I started with a cough for the first few days, followed by aches, chills and a fever for about 4 days. After that it moved into my sinuses and felt like a cold. Taste and smell went out around day 4 and are starting to come back now. Currently I'm still dealing with fatigue and a nagging cough. My wife has had a similar experience and is about 4 days behind me. We're both in our 40s in fairly good health overall.

    For the most part we're good about wearing masks when we're out. The only times I had direct contact with people without wearing a mask was while coaching my youngest daughter's volleyball team. It's possible one of the girls there had it and passed it along.

  8. #6088
    Member Balisong's Avatar
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    Sounds like you're both on the mend, hopefully you continue to improve quickly!

  9. #6089
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyGBiv View Post
    This had made sense to me from very early on, given that the onset of symptoms is so offset from inoculation.

    However..... If an infected person wears a mask, are they constantly reinfecting/inoculating themselves, I wonder?
    No. The titer of virus in the respiratory tract (i.e. the source of the virus in this case) would be much higher than any amount of virus that is exhaled onto the mast and subsequently inhaled. Also, I can't cite the study, but it seems like I've read that it's pretty difficult to get virus off a mask. Having said that, best practice is to treat our masks as contaminated objects.

    The immune response is very dynamic and during an immune response a lot of things all happen at the same time. To my knowledge, no one has been able to recover live virus from an infected individual after day 8-10. If you took some one on day ~10 after infection and inoculated them with virus, I'd be very surprised if it lead to a productive infection. By that point, the infected individual will have antibodies against the virus and plenty of activated T cells. The virus would be dropping into a very hostile situation with an immune system that is focused on killing virus. The number of immune cells looking for that specific virus as their target is orders of magnitude higher than when the infection started.

  10. #6090
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    Welp...my hospital has now doubled our COVID cases in the space of a week. Now 90+ positives up from 45.

    Won't be long before we go back to doubled rooms. This is going to be a long, cold winter.

    Sent from my moto g(6) using Tapatalk

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