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Thread: Coronavirus thread

  1. #3591
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    Quote Originally Posted by FES313 View Post
    They just shut down my biggest by closing the boat ramps at the lakes I fish. They have shuttered 2 of the biggest state parks that are heavily used for mountain biking and hiking. They even closed the trailheads to the Appalachian trail.
    That's rationally indefensible kneejerk overreaction. Getting people outside and away from other people is a good way to improve health and flatten the curve.

  2. #3592
    Site Supporter Paul D's Avatar
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    Feb 2011
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    Scottsdale, AZ
    There is an increased risk of a potentially lethal arrhythmia called ventricular tachycardia (AKA torsades de pointe) with the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromyocin. This is not new news. As cardiologists we knew this can happen in folks who take the former drug over a long period of time. The rule in our hospital is to check an EKG on day zero and day 2 of drug initiation. We are trying to update our telemetry software so that that we can monitor for this with the patient's cardiac monitor without having to lay hands on them twice to do the EKGs. This normally a rare event (especially given that we will use it for <1 week to treat COVID); but we are talking about huge number of patients now.

  3. #3593
    Member MVS's Avatar
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    Apr 2014
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    MI
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul D View Post
    There is an increased risk of a potentially lethal arrhythmia called ventricular tachycardia (AKA torsades de pointe) with the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromyocin. This is not new news. As cardiologists we knew this can happen in folks who take the former drug over a long period of time. The rule in our hospital is to check an EKG on day zero and day 2 of drug initiation. We are trying to update our telemetry software so that that we can monitor for this with the patient's cardiac monitor without having to lay hands on them twice to do the EKGs. This normally a rare event (especially given that we will use it for <1 week to treat COVID); but we are talking about huge number of patients now.
    Should I assume that someone like me who suffers from Afib would be more susceptible to this affect?

  4. #3594
    Ky forbids travel outside the State within certain exceptions. Coming into State must self quarantine 14 days.
    Gun stores may stay open as long as they follow distancing guidelines. Stopped in today and I was only person there.
    I'll wager you a PF dollar™ 😎
    The lunatics are running the asylum

  5. #3595
    Deleted
    Last edited by UNK; 03-30-2020 at 09:35 PM.
    I'll wager you a PF dollar™ 😎
    The lunatics are running the asylum

  6. #3596
    Site Supporter Paul D's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MVS View Post
    Should I assume that someone like me who suffers from Afib would be more susceptible to this affect?
    If you take sotalol, Tikosyn or amiodarone to treat atrial fibrillation, you can cause a phenomenon called QT prolongation when combined with hydroxychloroquine. QT prolongation encourages the ventricular tachycardia. Hydroxychloroquine can also decrease the metabolism of beta blockers like metoprolol (but not atenolol). The AFib itself does not predispose you to having this problem. As always, this is the internet: if you have questions/concerns, ask your personal doctor.

  7. #3597
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    Away, away, away, down.......
    Here’s a modeling site that has projections for peak Covid broken down by state. They’re predicting a peak in NY of 798 deaths a day in NY on April 10.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    ETA it’s a good place to get a look at a forecast for your state.

    One more edit found on their methodology page:

    We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.

  8. #3598
    Quote Originally Posted by Caballoflaco View Post
    Here’s a modeling site that has projections for peak Covid broken down by state. They’re predicting a peak in NY of 798 deaths a day in NY on April 10.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    ETA it’s a good place to get a look at a forecast for your state.

    One more edit found on their methodology page:
    I think there's a certain amount of garbage in/garbage out on that state-by-state breakdown. I've been watching that site, and we've been fitting their projected curve reasonably well here in Washington.

    In West Virginia, they've done very little testing, so I wonder how accurate the forecast is.

    Guess we'll see.
    I was into 10mm Auto before it sold out and went mainstream, but these days I'm here for the revolver and epidemiology information.

  9. #3599
    Quote Originally Posted by Lester Polfus View Post
    I think there's a certain amount of garbage in/garbage out on that state-by-state breakdown. I've been watching that site, and we've been fitting their projected curve reasonably well here in Washington.

    In West Virginia, they've done very little testing, so I wonder how accurate the forecast is.

    Guess we'll see.
    They're behind on the information in my State. We've implemented travel restrictions and closed non-essential businesses, but that isn't listed.

  10. #3600
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lester Polfus View Post
    I think there's a certain amount of garbage in/garbage out on that state-by-state breakdown. I've been watching that site, and we've been fitting their projected curve reasonably well here in Washington.

    In West Virginia, they've done very little testing, so I wonder how accurate the forecast is.

    Guess we'll see.
    I did find it interesting that their models are based on observed death rates and not testing from their faq page.

    Are these models accounting for the low levels of testing in different states? Would more confirmed cases mean we’d predict more deaths?

    These models are based on observed death rates, and so are not influenced by differences in testing. This means that changes in death rates would alter the model, but changes in the number of observed cases, or in how states are testing, would not. We believe that in settings where testing is in relatively short supply, the sick and the very sick are getting tested; this is why we utilize deaths, as those patients are more likely to have been tested.

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