Coronavirus thread

[TheNewbie]

It's been interesting watching what my parents, who are in their 70's, are reacting to this. They're basically making no changes to what they do, as they figure they only have so many active years left, and would rather do what they can while they can still so stuff, instead of hiding out and waiting for this to go away.

Contrast to their friends, who are hiding out in their house, doing nothing, and not seeing anyone.

I hope I have that mindset if I’m blessed to live to 70.


My buddy’s family has it. I think the worst thing for him is being stuck at home for two weeks.

[peterb]

I expect to run below normal on deaths in later half of 2021 and 2022 because (I suspect) a disproportionate number of this year's deaths would have occurred within 24 months. We are actually dipping slightly below mortality norms right now (a trend I expect to temporarily reverse with this winter covid wave):

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

[Nephrology]

This article does a good job giving a narrative description of what is going on with US healthcare systems and healthcare workers at the moment. I don't generally love the Atlantic but I think it is a fair representation of what is happening at hospitals across the country right now. It is consistent with what I know about our pulm/ICU division operations right now for certain, and is consistent with what others have shared in this thread as well (YVK Sensei etc).

It is the Atlantic so just skip the 2 egregious trump-bashing paragraphs... they have to keep their readers coming back somehow

[scw2]

I was doing some back of the envelope risk assessment estimations today, but I'm having a heck of a time finding one thing: How often does the average covid contact convert into a new covid infection?

We have assloads of contact tracers who I'd hope are following up with people after getting tested so this data should be out there - I just can't find it. The best I could come up with was way back from the Diamond Princess (~20% on board became infected) and Theodore Roosevelt (12% became infected in the initial 2 weeks at sea, ~25% had been infected after 2 months including their time on Guam). But cramped quarters at sea seem like the worst case scenario for disease transmission so I'd hope a random contact with a covid19 positive person at a grocery store doesn't result in your infection 25% of the time...

This article summarizes model-based estimates for spreading/catching covid. Obviously it's a model, and doesn't consider differences in genetics or individual immune systems, but it can help you get a rough assessment of relative risk in difference scenarios. I'd feel fairly comfortable in a grocery store if you aren't packed nuts to butts, most people are wearing actual masks (not gaiters/vented), try to maintain distance as best you can, and mostly get in and out.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2...h-the-air.html

[luckyman]

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

That’s lame that they didn’t show the graph with the axis starting at zero. The data is such that it would have still had an impact if displayed that way; now they’re just going to get pushback from skeptics about misrepresentation.

[peterb]

That’s lame that they didn’t show the graph with the axis starting at zero. The data is such that it would have still had an impact if displayed that way; now they’re just going to get pushback from skeptics about misrepresentation.

To start at zero we'd have to have a week with no deaths from any cause. It's a graph of all deaths. The cause of the spike is for the readers to argue about. ;-)

Annual deaths are roughly 3 million, so 50-60,000 per week seems about right for normal.

[0ddl0t]

This article summarizes model-based estimates for spreading/catching covid. Obviously it's a model, and doesn't consider differences in genetics or individual immune systems, but it can help you get a rough assessment of relative risk in difference scenarios. I'd feel fairly comfortable in a grocery store if you aren't packed nuts to butts, most people are wearing actual masks (not gaiters/vented), try to maintain distance as best you can, and mostly get in and out.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2...h-the-air.html

Thanks. I'm looking at swimming laps in a public pool every other day: 6' wide lanes, outdoors, and obviously no masks. Given the moderate-high prevalence in my county right now, the odds of everyone on the 10 other lanes being covid negative are about 91% so I'm leaning towards waiting out this wave of infections. I'm still able to run and cycle, I'm just really want to give my knees a good break every other day while still being able to get my heart rate up for an hour...

[randyho]

This article summarizes model-based estimates for spreading/catching covid. Obviously it's a model, and doesn't consider differences in genetics or individual immune systems, but it can help you get a rough assessment of relative risk in difference scenarios. I'd feel fairly comfortable in a grocery store if you aren't packed nuts to butts, most people are wearing actual masks (not gaiters/vented), try to maintain distance as best you can, and mostly get in and out.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2...h-the-air.html

I've seen NOTHING like that up to this point. Thank you.

[RoyGBiv]

Can you donate blood? If so, they'll probably test for antibodies and let you know...

We paid only $10 for my daughter to get antibody tested at LabCorp 2 weeks ago. Not an insurance copay, just $10. Registered on their website. Appointment next day.

[Sensei]

Transplant patients is much better - off nitric and pressors for a while. Sill on milrinone and inotropic dose epi to offload her RV. Neurologically interactive. Vent settings reasonable and will like be extubated in the next couple of days.