Coronavirus thread

[TiroFijo]

Argentina has been in lockdown for 7 1/2 months now, and the curve has just strarted flattening a couple weeks ago...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...1be_story.html

Lockdown is surely positive at some stage, but there are likely many more complex issues not yet completely understood in play.

Brazil has been a "bad example" of how to handle the epidemic, their number mirror those of the USA. Yet Argentina is probably going to surpass their percentage of dead population in a few days.

We Paraguay are in between Brazil, Argentina and Bolivia, one of the worst geographical places to be to avoid the virus, yet our numbers are MUCH lower in spite of a poor public health public system, modest social restrictions and people not adhering too strickly to them.

When you look at the stats in places like south america you have to take into account that testing is very limited (easy to see when you crunch the % of deaths vs confirmed cases) and basically only the people who have economic means to (repeatedly, as you always have a positive nearby) pay for a test or those who have severe symptoms are represented in the confirmed cases. Thus, the infections curve do show a trend but the really trustworthy numbers are the deaths.

[ffhounddog]

Personally I think this crap is so overblown. People tell me oh my god 200K people die in the US. I am like okay, how many would have died anyway? Yes I am cold but so many people have said things like well if it saves just one person but they keep forgetting that we have had a rise in other issues like Alcoholism and Mental health. I am more worried about that than C19. Just wash your hands and you will be fine. Problem is most do not do that basic thing. Also stop using Antibacterial soap just used normal soap and press on.

[MSparks909]

Personally I think this crap is so overblown. People tell me oh my god 200K people die in the US. I am like okay, how many would have died anyway? Yes I am cold but so many people have said things like well if it saves just one person but they keep forgetting that we have had a rise in other issues like Alcoholism and Mental health. I am more worried about that than C19. Just wash your hands and you will be fine. Problem is most do not do that basic thing. Also stop using Antibacterial soap just used normal soap and press on.

I’ve been saying the same thing since the beginning. Haven’t worn a mask either. Call me selfish if you just, but I live out in rural ENC where we’ve had a grand total of 30 CV-19 deaths in my county since March...a county of 100K people. I’ll take my chances.

[0ddl0t]

Personally I think this crap is so overblown. People tell me oh my god 200K people die in the US. I am like okay, how many would have died anyway? Yes I am cold but so many people have said things like well if it saves just one person but they keep forgetting that we have had a rise in other issues like Alcoholism and Mental health. I am more worried about that than C19. Just wash your hands and you will be fine. Problem is most do not do that basic thing. Also stop using Antibacterial soap just used normal soap and press on.

2.3 million Americans die each year so covid19 currently represents about a 10% increase. Based on non-covid excess deaths, I estimate that our response to the pandemic has resulted in an additional 5% more deaths. On the other hand, without any interventions the fovid deaths would have been higher.

Fuck lockdowns, wear a mask, modify your other behavior based on the risks at your locality...

[Caballoflaco]

Honestly, not sure about it.

Deniers will not care, those of covid is a lesser evil position will accept all human losses from it and from healthcare overload, both groups doubting the veracity of data. Their right, and there's no point arguing.

The rest of the crowd, that's a more interesting question. Local news even today are reporting 75% ICU statewide bed utilization, as they have had for a couple of weeks, I have a hard time believing that they don't know that us, our main hospital, and the University are at full or over the capacity; some of that was made publicly known. Local press is underrepresenting the hospital situation, likely by adding numbers of ICU beds from small local facilities. So it seems like right now there is a concerted effort by local news to inform people who much covid we have but not let "the kind of stuff" known. I was scoffing at it at first but now I think it is probably an effort to prevent a panic.
[/FONT]

You’re right.

But, the info the professionals here have posted has been used to effect change in my small social circle, including the entire speech pathology department a friend works at in a local hospital. (Some of the links and policy info posted when this thing kicked off helped them to procure better ppe through their hospital and gave them a starting point to get good safety protocols in place)

[TiroFijo]

I’ve been saying the same thing since the beginning. Haven’t worn a mask either. Call me selfish if you just, but I live out in rural ENC where we’ve had a grand total of 30 CV-19 deaths in my county since March...a county of 100K people. I’ll take my chances.

30 out of 100K is 300 per million, less than half the US average but not too great.

We in Paraguay are at 214 deaths per million, and thank our lucky star. In cities I personally don't like people taking "their" chances too freely when they can affect mine, it is a public health issue. In rural areas is different, there have been very few cases in my country despite very little restrictions.

You don't have to wear a mask in a well ventilated open space, where there is a lot of distance between people. Here in the cities is compulsory in public spaces, but not enforced in thinly ocupated neighbourhood sidewalks, etc. and of course not for walking/running/biking in parks, etc.

We have the particularity that every single shop/office no matter how small must have a sink for washing hands at the entrance, you get the compulsory thermometer reading at the entrance in larger shops/offices/supermarkets, and lots of alcohol to dissinfect available everywhere.

[HeavyDuty]

I’ve been saying the same thing since the beginning. Haven’t worn a mask either. Call me selfish if you just, but I live out in rural ENC where we’ve had a grand total of 30 CV-19 deaths in my county since March...a county of 100K people. I’ll take my chances.

And the chances of everyone you meet, and they yours.

[HeavyDuty]

My take: if people would universally wear masks, practice good sanitation and take precautions (temp checks) to prevent exposing others, we wouldn’t need lockdowns.

[Nephrology]

Personally I think this crap is so overblown. People tell me oh my god 200K people die in the US. I am like okay, how many would have died anyway?

It's funny you ask this question, because we actually have a pretty specific answer for you.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771761

Between March 1 and August 1, 2020, 1 336 561 deaths occurred in the US, a 20% increase over expected deaths (1 111 031 [95% CI, 1 110 364 to 1 111 697]). The 10 states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths were New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Arizona, Mississippi, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Michigan. The states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths changed from week to week (Video). The increase in absolute deaths in these states relative to expected values ranged from 22% in Rhode Island and Michigan to 65% in New York (Table). Three states with the highest death rates (New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts) accounted for 30% of US excess deaths but had the shortest epidemics (ED90 < 10 weeks). States that experienced acute surges in April (and reopened later) had shorter epidemics that returned to baseline in May, whereas states that reopened earlier experienced more protracted increases in excess deaths that extended into the summer (Figure).

Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states.

It is not overblown. Just go back and read some of YVK's or Sensei's posts if you would like specific examples to underline this point.

[Caballoflaco]

An interesting point from a sociological perspective is that this disease kills mainly the elderly who are already “invisible” for lack of a better term in our society. I might be wrong, but if the 15-50 year old demographic were being killed like during the Spanish flu I think there would be a different national reaction.