Coronavirus thread

[Erik]

...

But Massachusetts, where I see when I look outside, is pretty much a nightmare. We have 100-200 deaths per day. We have some days with more new cases per day, than Oregon has total. We have, offense to New York fully intended, the best hospitals in the country and yet we have deaths of young people who attended the same bars that I do, and life-ruining consequences for marathon runners in their 30s. It looks very different to me here than it does outside Nighvisionary's window and that's just a fact. He's not crazy to notice.

...

Not crazy to notice, no, but pretty fucked up not to acknowledge the situation in places like NY, NJ and MA and think, well thank fucking God it's different outside my window and let's try and keep it that way. Arguing with the honest to God actual experts on the subject is just icing on the cake.

[Maple Syrup Actual]

Honestly, I don't think the "what are your credentials" thing is that convincing. You don't need to be a Doctor to read a graph and make a judgement. I just think Nightvisionary's judgement is wrong, but I can understand why. If I lived in Oregon, I'd probably look outside and think that we're wildly overreacting. One hundred deaths total is amazingly low.

But Massachusetts, where I see when I look outside, is pretty much a nightmare. We have 100-200 deaths per day. We have some days with more new cases per day, than Oregon has total. We have, offense to New York fully intended, the best hospitals in the country and yet we have deaths of young people who attended the same bars that I do, and life-ruining consequences for marathon runners in their 30s. It looks very different to me here than it does outside Nighvisionary's window and that's just a fact. He's not crazy to notice.

Why is that? Are there different strains of the virus loose (maybe)? Is population density really that different (maybe)? Did MA have more initial cases before quarantine measures (maybe)? Or is it some conspiracy to defraud the American people into voting for Justin Amash and investing in shares overpriced teleconferencing startups? I don't think so, but given the different views out our window I can understand why people in some places are asking.

It would be nice to acknowledge that other people's views are filled with death and uncertainty, though.

I agree, I never find that whole credentialing thing particularly convincing.

Here, we're opening up, and were never locked down very tight. I never stopped going to the beach. My favourite local cafe went to a take-out format but that was the biggest change.

Our actual experts are recommending people go outside and enjoy themselves, and are confident we're past the worst of it, which peaked at around 150 people hospitalized out of 5.5 million. Our worst day I think we had 10 deaths.

How upset about it do I have to be? More than our experts who are successfully managing it? I'm sorry that some places are hit hard but lots of places aren't. Do we all have to act like everywhere is going to look like NYC if we don't stay indoors?

Because I don't think that's the case and given that our chief health officer agrees, I don't think my problem is the lack of a medical degree.

[JHC]

I continue to be amazed by the ferocity and conviction people speak about whole fields of endeavor (particularly on the internet) that they have no training/education/experience in, direct, indirect or even anecdotal in any meaningful way. This is particularly true re Law Enforcement, Military Service, Law generally but most often re criminal and domestic matters and Medicine.

(This is offense is the first cousin to those who say stuff on the internet but would never say it to the face of the person they are "speaking" to or to a fit, adult representative of the group being discussed. But that is a whole different discussion.)

RANT ON

What then adds insult to injury is that people then have the gall to get their butt up on their back when they are called to account for it and asked to provide their credentials.

Crickets and the hooting of owls generally occurs more often than not as the person in question cannot "put up." Unfortunately, they only "shut up" for a bit and dive right back in.

I know I am getting a bit salty given my present station in life but... people need to STFU unless they have done the work or at least have the grace and sense enough to weigh in being somewhat humble.

Quoted for Truth because Like just doesn't cut it!

If rebuilding auto transmissions became nationally controversial, wacko birds that never turned a wrench would be weighing in with equal vigor.

This can't be read enough. I sent it to someone that sent me a hoaxish piece that referenced freakin Steve Hilton for fucksakes as an infectious disease smart guy. That's when the fight really started. LOL

https://thefederalist.com/2014/01/17...-of-expertise/

[TheRoland]

Not crazy to notice, no, but pretty fucked up not to acknowledge the situation in places like NY, NJ and MA and think, well thank fucking God it's different outside my window and let's try and keep it that way. Arguing with the honest to God actual experts on the subject is just icing on the cake.

If the internet is not built for arguing with experts about things you don't understand (and they've studied their whole life), what's it for? One of my favorite things about twitter is watching people do things like explain basic statistics to Nobel mathematicians and recommend The Wire to the creator of The Wire.

More on topic, I've been trying to keep local situation awareness through data analytics. MA has a strong data science scene, and there's someone on Reddit who feeding the state's data into Tableau daily, producing really visually interesting reports:

Here's one from yesterday:


Better link
I imagine many heavily impacted states have similar people doing work to try to understand their situation. To me, this is encouraging, because tests are up but positive rate is down. Absolutely value of positive tests is steady, thought, which suggests we likely still need more testing.

[JDD]

In most places this fraud against the American people will end up as an insignificant statistical blip.





Oregon Leading Causes of Death, 2017
1. Cancer 8,083
2. Heart Disease 6,942
3. Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases 2,088
4. Accidents 2,076
5. Stroke 2,066
6. Alzheimer’s disease 1,850
7. Diabetes 1,243
8. Suicide 825
9. Chronic Liver Disease/Cirrhosis 642
10. Flu/Pneumonia 573

COVID-19 as of 4/29/20 101

The two leading causes of death across the U.S. are Heart Disease and Cancer. From the 2017 CDC data, they kill about 1,772/day and 1,642/day respectively. Across the U.S., and these numbers are underreporting because we still don't have enough tests, we have been between 2k and 3k deaths a day for weeks. That is damn near one 9/11 a day, and yesterday we hit one Vietnam war worth of unnecessary and untimely U.S. deaths (60k, neglecting Vietnamese deaths). Keep in mind, we don't even have a good idea what the other impacts with regard to knock on casualties caused by this crisis, but early numbers from CDC show that total deaths are significantly above average. It is not just a matter of the folks who were gonna die anyway are getting bumped off by the ol 'rona instead of the seasonal flu. I use those comparisons, because they are events that had a fairly dramatic impact on public policy in the US.

- https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...oll-total.html

This is only after we have - for the most part - been using economically crippling damage control measures to keep the tyranny of exponents from pushing our case count and the number of associated deaths into the literal millions while we scramble to come up with effective treatment measures and/or a vaccine. The folks who are using various cherry picked statistics and pseudo science to try to call this a scam are trying to trade 'murican lives for some sort of benefit: economic, political, or strategic other.

Our country is the scientific and economic titan with more brains and logistic depth to throw at this problem than any other country in the world. Between our advantages, and our advanced warning, it is frankly shameful that we are currently in the situation we are in right now. Various plague enthusiasts who somehow feel that we have over-reacted or gone too heavy with what are almost criminally minimal measures are a further national embarrassment showing the failures of the American educational system and general scientific literacy.

[JDD]

You scoff at the wisdom of the shaman? The impertinence!


/sarc

I had to resolve a workplace kerfuffle a few years ago, in which black magic featured prominently, to include dueling animist curses/counter curses. Oddly enough, our HR policies did not have clear guidance for the situation.

[JHC]

If the internet is not built for arguing with experts about things you don't understand (and they've studied their whole life), what's it for? One of my favorite things about twitter is watching people do things like explain basic statistics to Nobel mathematicians and recommend The Wire to the creator of The Wire.

More on topic, I've been trying to keep local situation awareness through data analytics. MA has a strong data science scene, and there's someone on Reddit who feeding the state's data into Tableau daily, producing really visually interesting reports:

Here's one from yesterday:


Better link
I imagine many heavily impacted states have similar people doing work to try to understand their situation. To me, this is encouraging, because tests are up but positive rate is down. Absolutely value of positive tests is steady, thought, which suggests we likely still need more testing.

Awesome! The understated hilarity of that observation will not be justly recognized by history. I salute you!

[0ddl0t]

No speech. You’re out of your lane.

So only metropolitan elites can use the "covid19 prophylaxis vs liberty" lane and those of us in rural areas should simply shut up and be your subjects?

Oregon has 12 times the land area and nearly half the population which has resulted in Massachusetts having 25 times more cases. Oregon residents are naturally more physically distanced so an appropriate response should differ accordingly.

[Welder]

I'm always reminded of that saying, "Figures don't lie but liars figure."

My grandfather said it to me first when I was 10 years old, and much later I heard it weekly in Stats class.

It's easy to create and understand charts, graphs, etc. I agree that neither takes a degree, nor even a High School education. The whole reason we have graphical representations of numbers is because it helps us to visualize trends and make comparisons.

Where people get in trouble is when liars start figuring. Using incomplete information, adjusting chart scales to make trends appear or disappear in a way that is deceptive compared to the reality, choosing to represent only certain segments of time to inflate or deflate a point being made...this stuff happens all of the time. Someone who is 'outside of their lane' is unable to know where the truth ends and the lies begin. Having no original knowledge, they are simply a parrot for the liars doing the figuring. Before you know it, the truth, whatever it is, has been swallowed up by the deception...usually the loudest mouth is also the dumbest.

This is why I prefer Pistol-Forum to any other forum of which I'm a member. It's chock-full of SME's on just about anything. In the last few years it's become increasingly infected by those who can't seem to get a clue, but the truth about many, many subjects is still here...and we are still allowed to call out those who don't have it.

You won't see my opinion about the coronavirus here because I have zero experience in the medical field. I'm not connected to it. I'm not about to start regurgitating anything I've read because I don't know what door has the full truth behind it. I count on a limited few in this thread for that, and I thank them for that immensely.

[Joe in PNG]

The difference between Ignorance and Stupidity is that Ignorance is willing and able to be corrected, while Stupidity sticks to its guns.