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Thread: Coronavirus thread

  1. #1

    Coronavirus thread

    The following is directly from my infectious diseases doctor brother in law this morning.

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    This was Monday. as of Tuesday now over 400 as of last night.

    It has spread and human to human

    Chinese New Year is in 3 days. Very critical next few weeks

    Will know more about lethality and who is dying (chronic illnesses, propelling diseases or young) or hospitalized.

    Spread to countries with freedom of press so information updates will be rapid

  2. #2
    Cases now up to 543

    Hong Kong case is 39 yo male who took high speed train with family of 4. The family are already in Manila. So safe to say cat is out of the box.

  3. #3
    40 Year Old Glock Boomer Casual Friday's Avatar
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    Feb 2013
    We have a confirmed case of it in WA. The infected subject is at Providence Hospital in Everett.

  4. #4
    Site Supporter
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    Mar 2011
    Greater PDX, OR
    My wife just left on Monday for a two week work trip to Manila with layovers both ways in Japan. I'm sure the risks are pretty low, but it is still worrisome.
    Last edited by Seven_Sicks_Two; 01-22-2020 at 11:15 AM.

  5. #5
    Soul Brother Number 1 Greg's Avatar
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    Jul 2015
    SARS 2.0 ?
    Donít blame me. I didnít vote for that dumb bastard.

  6. #6
    They are saying not as bad as sars but id be concerned. China saying dont travel to Wuhan during lunar near year is a big red flag people should be noticing.

    Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

  7. #7

  8. #8
    Site Supporter RoyGBiv's Avatar
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    Jan 2012
    Fort Worth, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by FPS View Post
    Better late than never...

    Chinese started traveling for the holiday a week ago.

    Population of Wuhan is >11 million.
    Professor Neil Ferguson, an expert in mathematical biology at Imperial College London told reporters in London the death rate for the new strain of coronavirus is "roughly the same as for The Spanish flu epidemic, at around one in 50".
    "No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." - Thomas Jefferson, Virginia Constitution, Draft 1, 1776

  9. #9
    Just going to post this again:

    Wikipedia on SARS:

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory disease of zoonotic origin caused by the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Between November 2002 and July 2003, an outbreak of SARS in southern China caused an eventual 8,098 cases, resulting in 774 deaths reported in 37 countries,[1] with the majority of cases in China and Hong Kong[2] (9.6% fatality rate) according to the World Health Organization (WHO).[2]
    Influenza-associated mortality in the US (per CDC, emphasis mine):

    As it does for the numbers of flu cases, doctorís visits and hospitalizations, CDC also estimates deaths in the United States using mathematical modeling. CDC estimates that from 2010-2011 to 2017-2018, influenza-associated deaths in the United States ranged from a low of 12,000 (during 2011-2012) to a high of 79,000 (during 2017-2018). The model used to estimate flu-associated deaths uses a ratio of deaths-to-hospitalizations in order to estimate the total flu-related deaths during a season.
    I don't have great comparative data re:mortality rate in flu positive patients, but roughly speaking, pneumonia and influenza account for ~7% of all deaths in the United States per year.

    Last edited by Nephrology; 01-22-2020 at 03:30 PM.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by RoyGBiv View Post
    Better late than never...

    Chinese started traveling for the holiday a week ago.

    Population of Wuhan is >11 million.
    Lol, comparing mortality rate of this coronavirus vs. historical mortality of 1918 flu pandemic is silly for a few reasons :

    1. This bug is still new and majority of cases likely are yet to present; selection bias means these first detected cases are unlikely to be representative of total patient pop (i.e. currently numbered cases do not include people not sick/concerned enough to seek medical care)

    2. All stats re: 1918 Spanish flu pandemic are hard to compare for many reasons; data are incomplete and less rigorously collected, patients received wildly different standard of care in 1918 than they do today, etc. It does make for very sensational quotes however.

    3. His numbers are correct per the WHO's most recent release. 278 lab confirmed cases and 6 reported deaths = ~2.15% mortality rate. All of these patients are admitted to the hospital and in isolation per same source.

    Versus a study of mortality among hospitalized flu patients:

    Of the 396 patients who tested positive for influenza 96 (24.2%) had influenza A and 300 (75.8%) influenza B. Twenty-two (5.6%) died in hospital and the 90-day mortality rate was 9.4%.
    This is sort of an apples-to-oranges comparison as likely all patients with lab confirmed novel coronavirus are being admitted for isolation precautions, whereas not all Austrians with flu like symptoms were admitted to the hospital. However, vs. people sick enough with flu to warrant being admitted to the hospital, 90 day mortality rate is 5 fold lower vs. this population of Austrian flu patients. YMMV
    Last edited by Nephrology; 01-22-2020 at 03:52 PM.

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