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Thread: Coronavirus thread

  1. #3351
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    Jul 2016
    Away, away, away, down.......
    919 people died in Italy yesterday. They continue to add 5-6 thousand cases a day.

    Pure Speculation based on the numbers of new cases vs number of deaths for the last couple of weeks. I think they’ve got at least a week of 800-1000 dead a day until they can slow down the rate of new infections.

  2. #3352
    STAFF Nephrology's Avatar
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    Sep 2011
    Mountain West
    Quote Originally Posted by Redhat View Post
    Thanks for the break down, but not needed in this case...wife's in the med field.

    Current hot topic seems to be vents so that's all I hear about...not much mention in the MSM about people to run them.
    I think it's easier to fixate on ventilators because it's very easy for lay people to understand that if you need one and can't get it, you will die. Ventilator shortages are definitely something that are on the horizon. On the pulm conference call just an hour ago I learned we have a specific plan in place on how to triage ventilators. It was pretty grim.

    The subtleties about nursing ratios and the relative ability of a pulm/crit care physicial to manage a vent vs. a cardiologist or a surgeon a little harder to turn into a sound bite.

  3. #3353
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    Aug 2011
    Quote Originally Posted by HCM View Post
    As I’m sure your wife can tell you, not every doctor or nurse is qualified to run people on event and as I’m sure you know from your military leader ship time staffing burn out etc. are all factors so maintaining one person on duty at all times requires more than one person.

    We’re not hearing about it Because it doesn’t make as good a soundbite.
    I'm sure it will come up eventually. Last week was N95 masks, then before that test kits. The MSM rarely offers useful least not to me.

  4. #3354
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    Aug 2011
    TEXAS !
    Quote Originally Posted by RoyGBiv View Post
    Once I can confirm I can deliver bulk cargo I'll follow up with you.. Thanks.
    Is China going to release these type of materials? Or would they declare them essential for domestic use and keep them in country?

    My understanding is that India, the other significant producer of Pharma and PPE has declared all such materials essential for domestic use and prohibited their export.

  5. #3355
    STAFF Nephrology's Avatar
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    Sep 2011
    Mountain West
    Quote Originally Posted by Redhat View Post
    I'm sure it will come up eventually. Last week was N95 masks, then before that test kits. The MSM rarely offers useful least not to me.
    N95s and testing reagents are still very much in short supply, for what it's worth. Testing is improving, but Denver has a critical PPE shortage (as does every other major city in the US it seems). PPE in the hospitals is for certain low, but for Fire/Police/EMS and testing personnel it is almost non-existent out here.

  6. #3356
    Site Supporter Maple Syrup Actual's Avatar
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    Aug 2011
    in the desert, culturally appropriating your organs
    Not sure if this will prove interesting to anyone or not.

    My province released their modeling data this morning; it was available as a document on Scribd which seems to have been removed, but can still be seen embedded at this link:

    I haven't had the chance to go through it at all myself so the only highlight I'm aware of is that we've reduced our daily increase of known cases down to about 12% day over day since the social distancing measures began; hopefully as compliance becomes more widespread it will drop further.

    They are currently predicting no shortage of ventilators, which is hopeful.

    Anyway not that anyone would specifically be interested in my province but I thought the data itself might be interesting to some of you who might be able to apply the underlying assumptions etc to your own jurisdictions.

  7. #3357
    Quote Originally Posted by RoyGBiv View Post
    Been working supply base to source PPE past few weeks. Some success, some fail. Biggest problem is logistics. I can find supply, but the first hopeful news (still verifying) I heard on being able to move things in bulk with a booked schedule was less than an hour ago.

    Been able to move some stuff and help some folks on a small scale, but my frustration on cargo limits (and stories of shipments gone missing) had my anxiety boiling. 10 days ago an express package took 5 days. Today it's taking 10 days. Too long! Lost my shit earlier in the week and started making calls and shaking trees.

    Got in touch with <redacted>.gov 2 days ago through an old colleague. Working on getting integrated with their process. I was surprised that I was being asked intelligent questions and there were already boots on the ground doing source quals. Blood pressure down 30 points, but still high.

    Got a note this morning with an offer to spend $1M on masks for donation to NYC. No pressure.

    Feels like we are on our own for Vents. When every bent of media and POTUS is still calling it some version of "Chinese Virus", there are limits to what they will be willing to do for you. Working some angles but not very hopeful. Praying for GM and others to pull off a win. I have family in NYC and they are rightly afraid.

    I know we have some pilots here... If anyone has the ability to fly an aircraft capable of reaching Shanghai, I'd like to get a basic cost analysis for that. Aircraft, fuel, fees, crew, and all the other stuff I don't know to ask. I can handle export/import. Ideally, something with minimum cargo capacity of a 20' container, about 30 CBM. I need a backup plan if air cargo doesn't work.

    Down about 8 pounds now. Not hungry, force myself to eat at least 2 meals/day. Hydration pretty good, but fell off the wagon yesterday. Climbing back on. Still exercising. Spend a lot of time on the phone pacing with frustration. Check in here when I can... I sure would like to see better news, but thanks for the reality at least. I'd feel better if I could drive over there to pick stuff up.

    Was pacing my yard yesterday and had a thought. At least i could go in the yard or take a walk. Imagine all the folks in Asia that can't leave their small apartments filled with family. Then I thought about Manhattan and Chicago. And the kid at Kroger that's going to pick my to go order tomorrow (hopefully tomorrow).

    Thanks for listening... Time to eat something. Stay safe.

    Corey... thinking of you. Wishing you strength. [/ramble]
    Called my dad who knows a TON of people in SE Asia but no contacts that can assist with flights. Sorry man and best of luck getting something worked out.

  8. #3358
    Gray Hobbyist Wondering Beard's Avatar
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    Nov 2011
    The Coterie Club
    Quote Originally Posted by RevolverRob View Post
    Doc, you can file this one away for a later date:

    If you click the box next to "reply with quote" it will give you a check mark. That tells you that post is being multi-quoted. Check as many as you like next to posts to respond to them in one post.

    It's times like this, where I wish I was a lawyer. I would get a kick out of suing the living shit out of these scumbags.
    Quote Originally Posted by peterb View Post
    For those skeptical about the numbers from China......
    A spate of mysterious second-time infections is calling into question the accuracy of COVID-19 diagnostic tools even as China prepares to lift quarantine measures to allow residents to leave the epicenter of its outbreak next month. It's also raising concerns of a possible second wave of cases.

    From March 18-22, the Chinese city of Wuhan reported no new cases of the virus through domestic transmission — that is, infection passed on from one person to another. The achievement was seen as a turning point in efforts to contain the virus, which has infected more than 80,000 people in China. Wuhan was particularly hard-hit, with more than half of all confirmed cases in the country.

    But some Wuhan residents who had tested positive earlier and then recovered from the disease are testing positive for the virus a second time. Based on data from several quarantine facilities in the city, which house patients for further observation after their discharge from hospitals, about 5%-10% of patients pronounced "recovered" have tested positive again.

    Some of those who retested positive appear to be asymptomatic carriers — those who carry the virus and are possibly infectious but do not exhibit any of the illness's associated symptoms — suggesting that the outbreak in Wuhan is not close to being over.
    We tend to find out more about China's "truth in numbers" through other seemingly irrelevant news and numbers. For example:
    China Shuts Down All Cinemas, Again
    “An ill-educated person behaves with arrogant impatience, whereas truly profound education breeds humility.” Alexander Solzhenitsyn
    "There are problems in this universe for which there are no answers." Paul Muad'dib

  9. #3359
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    Oct 2011
    Asuncion, Paraguay
    Just to show how this touches us all:

    In my country there are currently only 52 confirmed cases (likely 10-20X more, who knows?). One of them is my cousin (56), caught it in Peru and he is doing fine so far.

    One of my friends (55 years old) from my old rugby team was recently in NY for knee replacement surgery (he has already changed the other side a couple years ago), and it was cancelled due to COVID-19 concerns. He and his wife got infected, very mild symptoms for him, a bit more severe for his wife (51).

    My wife's cousin lives in Barcelona, Spain. He (53), his wife (51) and his twin sons (29) were infected, via one of son's girlfriend who is a nurse (28) ten days ago. He was admitted to the hospital yesterday, not very serious condition so hopefully he'll recover soon. The wife and kids have relatively mild symptoms.

    We'll see how it hits us here. Apparenly A LOT of us will get infected.

  10. #3360
    don't gaslight me, bro' blues's Avatar
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    Aug 2016
    blue ridge mtns
    Sounds like you're playing six degrees of separation, @TiroFijo. I wish you buena suerte, amigo.
    Dare to speak the truth

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