My otherwise healthy and vibrant 89yr old mother-in-law has been diagnosed with Covid [emoji853]
Praying for her.
My otherwise healthy and vibrant 89yr old mother-in-law has been diagnosed with Covid [emoji853]
Praying for her.
Ditto on that. All the best hopes!
Praying for her here.Originally Posted by luckyman
So I admit that I am way out of my lane, regarding COVID discussion with the associated medical professionals here. But I read this analysis, and thought I would bring up the discussion here.
BLUF: CDC data does not show any excess deaths during 2020 compared to the previous several years. Expected data would show rise in total deaths due to normal causes added with COVID. Data does not seem to support. Thoughts? Reactions?
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-th...from-covid-19/
Pull quote:
“ When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, … the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19. [emphasis mine]”
Here is some CDC data from the article comments which summarizes the issue:
US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
"Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master"
See https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid for data on total deaths by country. There are several ways to break it out, such as by age. The provide raw death numbers and percent change, using 2015-2019 as a baseline. They show the USA at about 6% above baseline through October 18. In raw numbers, they show USA at 350,000 excess deaths through October 18 compared to the 5 year average. These numbers don't break it out by cause of death; only total numbers. They cut off at October 18 due to the lag in reporting. I don't know how reliable this site is compared to other sources.
The following, from October, doesn't help the confusion: Biden Got the Coronavirus Death Toll Wrong | Opinion
""The case definition is very simplistic," Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of Illinois Department of Public Health, explains. "It means, at the time of death, it was a COVID positive diagnosis. That means, that if you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means, technically even if you died of [a] clear alternative cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it's still listed as a COVID death."
"Such expansive definitions are not the fault of rogue public health officials. The rules direct them to do this. "If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death," White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx noted multiple times."
"The Centers for Disease Control guidance acknowledges the uncertainty that doctors face when identifying causes of death. When coronavirus cases are "suspected," the agency counsels doctors that "it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate." This advice has produced a predictable inflation in the numbers. On April 21, when New York City's death toll rose above 10,000, The New York Times reported that the city included "3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive"—a more than 50 percent increase in the number of cases."
"There are financial incentives for doctors and hospitals to report deaths this way. The CARES Act adds a 20 percent premium for COVID-19 Medicare patients. Birx and others are also concerned that the CDC's "antiquated" accounting system is double counting cases and inflating mortality and case counts "by as much as 25 percent." When all these anomalies are added up, it becomes apparent that we simply don't have an accurate coronavirus death toll. But it seems clear that at least two-thirds of the reported fatalities are actually due to causes other than the coronavirus."
"The number of cases is also greatly exaggerated, with many states counting the number of positive tests rather than the number of individuals with the virus. In July, CovidTracking.com found that about half the states were reporting "tests in units of specimens (tests) rather than individuals (people tested)." This is a problem because, if someone is in the hospital for a couple of weeks, he or she might be tested daily.
All these data problems make it very difficult to determine how the U.S. is doing relative to other countries or even relative to other diseases."
" La rose est sans pourquoi, elle fleurit parce qu’elle fleurit ; Elle n’a souci d’elle-même, ne demande pas si on la voit. » Angelus Silesius
"There are problems in this universe for which there are no answers." Paul Muad'dib
A great Twitter thread about the vaccine effort, likely the most meaningful scientific/technology breakthrough since the Internet?
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol...71238771630080
“The lion cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must therefore be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten wolves.” Machiavelli, The Prince
I'm not involved directly in the vaccine effort. My company doesn't make therapeutics directly, but we make a lot of building blocks and tools that those who make therapeutics use. Even we have seen things moving radically faster than they normally would. New product approvals happening in the speed it would normally take to get an email response from some people, that sort of thing. I've never gotten so many "just do whatever it takes" directives from management.A great Twitter thread about the vaccine effort, likely the most meaningful scientific/technology breakthrough since the Internet?
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol...71238771630080
Hopefully without sacrificing quality?
As a supply chain guy, I can certainly see where management getting out of the way would speed things up substantially.
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." - Thomas Jefferson, Virginia Constitution, Draft 1, 1776
As an outsider, the accelerant seems to be an acceptance of inefficiency— being willing to four-branch stuff and let what doesn’t work fall to the floor.
Ignore Alien Orders
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