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Thread: Our new and improved Iraq discussion thread!

  1. #291
    sacred cow free zone blues's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BehindBlueI's View Post
    That would assume that they didn't have the resources to stop him prior to take off but had the plan in place immediately after taking off to fire missiles at the correct plane. That would be an incredibly narrow window in time were a pair of missiles was a better option than picking him up at the airport. As such, I find it rather unlikely.
    I don't see that scenario as realistic either.
    "Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing." - John Stuart Mill, 1867

  2. #292
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    Quote Originally Posted by UNK View Post
    I posted this earlier but it never was acknowledged responded to by anyone. I know there are some people on here that are much more astute than me so ill ask again. I have read that a lot of people around Soleimani were arrested the number i recall was 100-150. Is it possible someone on that jet was a person the Iranians did not want to escape?
    I guess we'll never know.
    Snubbies.....resolving CQC issues since nineteen fiddy.

  3. #293
    Quote Originally Posted by BehindBlueI's View Post
    That would assume that they didn't have the resources to stop him prior to take off but had the plan in place immediately after taking off to fire missiles at the correct plane. That would be an incredibly narrow window in time were a pair of missiles was a better option than picking him up at the airport. As such, I find it rather unlikely.
    It could be that I have binge watched entirely too much Blacklist. 😁 Small detour but has any body noticed the cocking sound the pistols drawn in that series make? Even the Glocks! 😂😂
    Last edited by UNK; 01-16-2020 at 08:07 PM.
    uneducated and low information
    I'll wager you a PF dollar™ 😎
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  4. #294
    Quote Originally Posted by UNK View Post
    It could be that I have binge watched entirely too much Blacklist. 😁 Small detour but has any body noticed the cocking sound the pistols drawn in that series make? Even the Glocks! 😂😂
    Well from that video upthread there was a gap of approximately twelve seconds between the first missile impact until the second missile launch. That's a pretty large gap for identifying a commercial pilot shouting "mayday mayday" to the tower, etc.. The transponder was active until just before the second missile struck the plane. Certainly low probability events do occur, but Occam's Razor slicing through the riff raff would indicate, to me anyway, that it is more likely this was a deliberate act and that they knew full well that it was a commercial airliner. If that is the case, your hypothesis of targeting a passenger(s) makes the most sense -- again, to me. Perhaps the more aviation/defense savvy here can explain how a commercial jet, on a commercial take-off pattern, transponding the entire pre-missile flight could be mistaken for a military drone. I don't get that. Militarily Iran may be using somewhat outdated Russian equipment, but still, this would be a blunder of incompetence that boggles the mind.
    God is not on the side of the big battalions, but on the side of those who shoot best. - Voltaire

  5. #295
    Moderator BehindBlueI's's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by critter View Post
    Well from that video upthread there was a gap of approximately twelve seconds between the first missile impact until the second missile launch. That's a pretty large gap for identifying a commercial pilot shouting "mayday mayday" to the tower, etc..
    So in your hypothesis the civilian airport's tower has direct comms to the military's anti-air defense battery that fired, realizes that the mayday is from the plane as a result of a missile strike, and communicates to the crew that they are firing on a civilian jet within 12 seconds?

    Also, the fact that media accounts state that the plane didn't communicate an emergency is part of the cover up?

    I'm not an aviation expert, nor am I an air defense expert, but that doesn't sound like how things work to me.

    How's about this for Occam's Razor. Nervous/trigger happy AA crew fires, realizes they hit but didn't down their target, and fires a second time still operating under whatever assumption lead them to fire the first time. AA crew has no new information in those 12 seconds other than "target hit, still flying and maneuvering" which is readily available from their own observations.
    L'otters are not afraid.
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    Quote Originally Posted by UNM1136 View Post
    Maybe with talented students I would lube up with baby oil and then go at it.

  6. #296
    Quote Originally Posted by BehindBlueI's View Post
    So in your hypothesis the civilian airport's tower has direct comms to the military's anti-air defense battery that fired, realizes that the mayday is from the plane as a result of a missile strike, and communicates to the crew that they are firing on a civilian jet within 12 seconds?

    Also, the fact that media accounts state that the plane didn't communicate an emergency is part of the cover up?

    I'm not an aviation expert, nor am I an air defense expert, but that doesn't sound like how things work to me.

    How's about this for Occam's Razor. Nervous/trigger happy AA crew fires, realizes they hit but didn't down their target, and fires a second time still operating under whatever assumption lead them to fire the first time. AA crew has no new information in those 12 seconds other than "target hit, still flying and maneuvering" which is readily available from their own observations.
    Maybe... I don't really have an hypothesis for what did occur. What has been reported thus far has 'triggered' my "this doesn't add up completely" sniffer. As further info comes out perhaps that "I got a funny feelin' about these people are sayin'"will subside. I guess it also depends on when radar began tracking. It seems reasonable that a missile battery near a major civilian airport would be advised that the airport is operational, and there are standard takeoff and landing patterns which should be recognizable to those manning the battery. Perhaps there is/was no monitoring or communication connection between a military station very near a major metropolis airport and that airport. You may be correct. I'm just not quite ready to accept the trigger happy blunder as factual until further details come out.
    God is not on the side of the big battalions, but on the side of those who shoot best. - Voltaire

  7. #297
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    Quote Originally Posted by BehindBlueI's View Post
    How's about this for Occam's Razor. Nervous/trigger happy AA crew fires, realizes they hit but didn't down their target, and fires a second time still operating under whatever assumption lead them to fire the first time. AA crew has no new information in those 12 seconds other than "target hit, still flying and maneuvering" which is readily available from their own observations.
    That's about my untrained hypothesis also.

    A poorly trained and motivated conscript crew figures, "If we allow a US aircraft through, we'll definitely be beheaded. If we shoot down a non-combatant aircraft, we might be beheaded..."
    Last edited by kwb377; 01-17-2020 at 02:56 PM.

  8. #298
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    Quote Originally Posted by critter View Post
    Maybe... I don't really have an hypothesis for what did occur. What has been reported thus far has 'triggered' my "this doesn't add up completely" sniffer. As further info comes out perhaps that "I got a funny feelin' about these people are sayin'"will subside. I guess it also depends on when radar began tracking. It seems reasonable that a missile battery near a major civilian airport would be advised that the airport is operational, and there are standard takeoff and landing patterns which should be recognizable to those manning the battery. Perhaps there is/was no monitoring or communication connection between a military station very near a major metropolis airport and that airport. You may be correct. I'm just not quite ready to accept the trigger happy blunder as factual until further details come out.
    Its ****ing Iran.
    Last edited by Wake27; 01-17-2020 at 03:05 PM.

  9. #299
    Moderator BehindBlueI's's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by critter View Post
    Perhaps there is/was no monitoring or communication connection between a military station very near a major metropolis airport and that airport.
    Between a station and between an individual battery are quite different things. Military comms are typically one level at a time. The bottom rung can only top to the rung above it directly. That rung can talk one up and talk one down. Platoon level talks to Company level but not to Battalion level, for example.

    And, again, there was no emergency broadcast from the plane. Most likely it's comms were damaged by the first strike.

    All of which leaves unanswered the most basic question: Why the need to down a plane to affect an arrest? Why not at passport control, the boarding gate, any host of alternatives that would be both easier, cheaper, and quieter? It presumes that they couldn't get "him" prior to boarding but were ready with authorization and ability to destroy a civilian airliner between that point in time and shortly after take off. That's way more complicated then poorly trained jumpy crew fires at blip on screen, blip turns out to not be the blip they were looking for.
    L'otters are not afraid.
    WWOMJD?

    Quote Originally Posted by UNM1136 View Post
    Maybe with talented students I would lube up with baby oil and then go at it.

  10. #300
    Site Supporter Borderland's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwb377 View Post
    That's about my untrained hypothesis also.

    A poorly trained and motivated conscript crew figures, "If we allow a US aircraft through, we'll definitely be beheaded. If we shoot down a non-combatant aircraft, we might be beheaded..."
    Trained by the Russians no doubt. It's a slippery slope.
    Snubbies.....resolving CQC issues since nineteen fiddy.

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