By some measure we’ve already been fighting Iran for decades. At one point in the 80s we were in a direct shooting war with their military. Given their domestic instability , Iran’s got motivation to escalate matters. Why shoot your own dissidents when a foreigners army can do it for you?Originally Posted by Borderland
The Minority Marksman.
"When you meet a swordsman, draw your sword: Do not recite poetry to one who is not a poet."
-a Ch'an Buddhist axiom.
The gov't only allows those with the means, (moola), to decide what kind of community they reside in and where they send their kids to school. (Campaign contributions cheerfully accepted.)
Ironic given that the animus of various groups toward one another hasn't gotten any better and may very well have gotten worse since trying to enforce everyone living together in harmony. It makes for happy commercials on TV.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. I don't like it but pretending doesn't accomplish anything.
There's nothing civil about this war.
Like the military folks have been saying, killing US troops for years is pretty crazy. It is just that it has been slow-motion, long term crazy to help people like these two monsters avoid sudden meetings with things like SeALs and Hellfire missiles while encouraging the U.S. to declare victory and get out.But, Soleimani is a household name in Iran. The hero of the Iran/Iraq war and viewed as the equivalent of George Washington and Audie Murphy had a baby. They WILL do something crazy now. The regime can’t let this go. It will be serious enough that we have to retaliate. And so forth. I can’t see how this act leads to anything good for America long term. I’m glad he’s dead, but personally I’m not willing to sacrifice anymore American blood and treasure into this black hole. Nuke the place from orbit, it’s the only way to be sure.
Maybe I overestimate our military and politicians, but I can't help but think that at least at the military table, someone said "And what will they do? Then what will we do next? Then what is likely? How would we respond to that?" with some flow-chart looking things on a PPT. Kinda like chess, planning out the moves and countermoves. Maybe not all the time, but as someone pointed out in this thread...hitting a couple of high ranking clowns as they walk down the ramp into the circus if definitely a new way of doing things. SURELY we are a couple of moves ahead, and maybe the Marines to the embassy and the 82nd to Kuwait are their way of saying, "Nope, you can't do that. Next choice?"
I'm pretty much down with anything that involves total destruction of the mullahs from orbit or just from drone/Hellfire range.
I'm not military, politician, or even educated in this stuff, but when what you are doing hasn't been working, maybe do something else? Beats a few pallets of cash. What are they gonna do, kill start killing our people?
Last edited by Jhp147; 01-03-2020 at 10:12 AM. Reason: spelling and the like
I agree with most of what you are saying, but I think there is a second message for current and future Iraqi leadership, namely "Choose your factional allies carefully." The location of the attack is a clear message to Iran to step back from Iraqi affairs as well as a statement to Iraqi leadership about the negatives of embracing Iranian leadership.
SP-MAGTF-CR aren't a dramatic response of any type to the Iranians themselves and making a statement to them. That's strictly a pragmatic bolstering of security at the embassy by request of the Ambassador, as advised by the RSO, and entirely a different conversation tree than CENTCOM drawing up plans for the POTUS' response/political objectives.
SP-MAGTF-CR (both AFRICOM and CENTCOM) is a result of Benghazi. They're basically a light MEU in a company sized (versus battalion) concept, but staged in place instead of on a float looking for fights, with some organic assets unlike a FAST Co that makes them more deployable and scalable, though less specialized compared to FAST.
ETA: The IRF from the 82nd is a response to the deployment of the SP-MAGTF-CR in the current environment, essentially to backfill and provide CENTCOM additional resources on immediate tap. Not necessarily a response/show of force to Iran.
Last edited by TGS; 01-03-2020 at 10:38 AM.
"Are you ready? Okay. Let's roll."- Last words of Todd Beamer
I didn’t say that officials made claims that Iranians would not be hostile to a presence. I said that U.S. officials have made hundreds of statements arguing that the average Iranians want regime change.
I used the example of U.S. officials claiming that the Iraqis wouldn’t be hostile to a U.S. presence to demonstrate that our analysts and diplomats can’t be trusted in their analysis of events on the ground in a foreign country.
For evidence that the U.S. gov opinion is that we should support the Iranian people in the overthrow of a government that supposedly hate, simply google any appearance on the Sunday talk shows, CSPAN, etc by John McCain, Lindsey Graham, or Obama admin officials such as Susan Rice during the 2008-9 or 2011 protests. There are to many examples to count.
Protesting gasoline prices hikes is a long way from wanting the religious leadership removed.
I understand that we can’t allow attacks on our personnel or Embassies. I guess the problem I have is when I look at that giant FORTRESS we call an embassy in Baghdad all I see is a monument to failure. (Is it still the largest most expensive embassy ever?). Failure because we don’t seem to know what the hell we are doing there and still don’t have an endgame. That’s a personal problem I know 🙂
Last edited by EPF; 01-03-2020 at 10:42 AM.
I actually understand what you are saying even without Googling the acronyms. I guess this isn't mobilizing an invasion level force, but I hope that this and the mean something, taken together. One thing I know from working as a cop and a public info officer-there are things you see, things you don't see, and then there is the press release!SP-MAGTF-CR aren't a dramatic response of any type to the Iranians themselves and making a statement to them. That's strictly a pragmatic bolstering of security at the embassy by request of the Ambassador, as advised by the RSO, and entirely a different conversation tree than CENTCOM drawing up plans for the POTUS' response/political objectives.
SP-MAGTF-CR (both AFRICOM and CENTCOM) is a result of Benghazi. They're basically a light MEU in concept, but staged in place instead of on a float looking for fights, with some organic assets unlike a FAST Co that makes them more deployable and scalable, though less specialized compared to FAST.
ETA: The IRF from the 82nd is a response to the deployment of the SP-MAGTF-CR in the current environment, essentially to backfill and provide CENTCOM additional resources on immediate tap. Not necessarily a response/show of force to Iran.
Last edited by Jhp147; 01-03-2020 at 10:51 AM.
If things spin up fast, I bet we'll find out the truth of that rather quickly, as something between justification and propaganda to give cause to any action(s) we take.
To me the bottom line is that if you run a company and some of your employees are backstabbing, resentful little fucks, you have to expect they will keep stealing time and materials until you teach them to GENUINELY fear you. Those people will never love you, so all the positivity in the world won't erase the giant list of transgressions they have in their mind that justify for them the theft and the poor performance. You asked them to work on their birthdays in the first year of the company, plus you couldn't remember their name at the company Christmas party you threw for them, and now you drive a 2020 Lexus and they still drive a 97 Cavalier. Their resentment is largely driven by an internal envy you can't control, and that will never die and they will never love you.
If you punish them, but the punishment is carried out through an administrative process by which their coffee breaks are shortened to ten minutes instead of fifteen and their union rep keeps showing up in your office demanding for more fair treatment and this whole thing drags on forever, they don't learn to fear you, they learn NOT to fear you.
When you walk out on the shop floor and fire three people, THAT'S when they learn to fear you.
America has spent a lot of time trying to be fair and generous. That works well with people who don't hate you. I strongly encourage you to be fair and generous to Western Canada, for example.
If you play that game with people who hate you, you're just dragging it out.
I'm not really especially schooled on global politics - I mean technically that's my field and international relations was my undergrad but I haven't worked in that and I could tell you a lot more about designing telecom systems for small towns than I could about the theories of Max Weber now.
But in my opinion, managing global politics in an anarchic world doesn't necessarily require a ton of detail about the specifics of each instance, nor does it benefit from a ton of thought on whether the state needs a monopoly on the legitimate use of force or whether subjective acceptance of objective reality really is a core principle of political thought.
What is needed is a gut understanding of human power politics, and those don't change much from dealing with a bunch of welders to a bunch of schoolteachers to a bunch of nations.
Not every lesson is about fear. But some relationships can only be managed through those means. America needs to be capable of placing fear in the minds of its enemies and yes that will have costs but there will also be costs not to be a convincing strongman and you're already paying those. I think this is a smart move and I would further extend the play to say that the next problem person who pokes their head up in the region ought to have it blown off very publicly, immediately.
Unless you want the crooks to treat the new sherriff like the old one, you better convince them there's a new sherriff in town. This seems like a solid play, and I like the social media double-down. Damn right we did it, pray we don't do it any further. America has big muscles and it's very costly to drive those muscles with a mind that pussyfoots. Once the kids realize the giant ogre is softhearted, they lose all their fear of him. You guys ended up in the lousy position of being the giant that didn't want to swing the club and everybody knew it. Go flatten a few skulls for a while, show that the giant has had a change of heart. It's your best option as far as I'm concerned.
The 82nd is a Strategic asset. Deployment of the a BN sized IRF, QRF etc. to an AO is very noteworthy and sends a clear message along with the surgical strike on key leaders.
