Our big, fun Iraq discussion thread

[Stephanie B]

Just as in the Civil War, serious after the 'end of the war' resistance didn't occur.

*Ahem* I disagree.

[GardoneVT]

You are correct and incorrect about fighting Iran, Gardone. If you look at the conventional panoply of arms - standard planes, tanks and ships - the Iranians would be at a severe disadvantage and these assets would be neutralized. Their irregular naval assets - interesting problem, given the past war game.

If you look at invading and occupying Iran, you are correct that our 'modern' forces would face a horror show of irregular but planned armed resistance that would make Iraq look simple.

This is a good point to note that during Gulf War I the Iraqi Air Force predominantly fled - to Iran. I doubt the IRIAF will give up so easily. A motivated enemy tends to make the most of the tools they have.

Its a calculated fact we’d defeat them militarily- eventually. I don’t agree with the notion it’d be an automatic curb stomp.

We do not have the forces to invade and occupy Iran. Nor is there is any conceivable circumstance that the US public would stand for that level of mobilization.

While an empirical question - The second Iraq war, the incomplete nuclear deal, Obama deals and Trump's immaturity and recklessness will be cited as the a major point in the diminution of the USA in the world. Could be wrong - I am not going to be here to read the 2050 history books.

We won the conventional wars against the Germans and Japanese as they decided at a point to give it up. Just as in the Civil War, serious after the 'end of the war' resistance didn't occur. Would a conventional war against Iran be the same? Does anyone think the Cheney doctrine that after we 'win', that country becomes suburban DC or Long Island?

The US public has long memories. The Hostage Crisis is still in the memories of many a voter. Between that mess and all the nasty half measures in the ME since the American Public is a lot more supportive of an Iranian invasion then you’d suspect. Naturally the media is wailing hysterics, but among ordinary folk they’re quite OK with an Iranian campaign. So long as it’s fought decisively and well.

[willie]

My uneducated opinion is that Iran's leaders know that our forces can neutralize theirs. They know that then they would face more threat from Israel. We would have no reason to fight Iran on the ground. Iran also is aware that their nuclear research sites including those underground would be destroyed. Trump's instability scares them and confuses their planning because he is not playing by the rules.

[LittleLebowski]

I'm thinking that at this point if there were any ongoing negotiations with the Iraqis secretary Pompeo would express that to the media. I think the US had an agreement that they were in a training capacity only and the Iraqis see the drone strike and other Iranian militia strike as some kind of huge violation. The strike killed an Iraqi military officer. I'm not sure the US knew who was in those vehicles for sure, or maybe they did and didn't care.

I'm sure they're communicating at the top levels but Pompeo sounds like there really isn't anything to discuss. We're here and we're staying here. Of course if Trump changes his mind (he does that) then maybe it's just a temporary position for media consumption.

I'm thinking a few moves ahead so mostly it's just a ball game for me. I don't have any skin in the game anymore.

I don't think that you can make a sound, informed decision on what's going on solely based upon media coverage. That's your call, though.

[Borderland]

I have been uncharacteristically silent in this thread, mostly because I don’t know what I don’t know, despite having actually lived in the ME for a bit when I was younger.

But here’s what I do know: Afghanistan is something we pretty much had to do, because hunt for Osama; had to respond somehow. I—along with much of the country—was in favor of that action at the time.

When it came time for 43 and crew to break Iraq, I have vivid memories of being in the trendy, affluent neighborhood bistro, watching all the occupants and most of America go 0-60 in under 5 on the jingo meter. It was pretty much me, Bernie, Barack, and this *incredibly* left-leaning psych major I knew from wine tastings who were wondering WTF was up with Iraq. Folks can look it up: the Bush admin ginned up cause, and all the congress critters went along with it.

Don’t get me wrong; Saddam sucked. And remember the boss’s kids? Uday and Qusay, or whatever? Those guys really were ambulatory pieces of shit who needed an ass kicking.

But the thing is, Iraq had toyota camrys and arts and genetic engineering departments in universities that educated women doctors and women pharmacists who wore pants and nice shoes to work instead of bags over their heads.

We fucked up Iraq, and a number of people got rich—and most of them weren’t the Iraqi people.

The facts of the matter are that large portions of the ME seem to do objectively better under ostensibly pro-west leaders who keep a lid on things, eg. Shah Reza. The fundamentalists in Iran fucked up their own country, but we broke Iraq.

I have to agree with all of that.

Not only did we break Iraq, it cost the US taxpayer a lot of money, not to mention the people that came home in a box or have disabilities associated with combat there. Those people aren't enjoying any of the dividends from US corporations like Halliburton which made 40 billion to 'rebuild' Iraq. Some would say we broke Iraq so we could fix it. Dick Cheney comes to mind here. The only problem there is we never fixed anything but it looks like we're still trying.

Edit. I worked with some Iraqis and Iranians who left the country before the shit storm.

[Borderland]

I don't think that you can make a sound, informed decision on what's going on solely based upon media coverage. That's your call, though.

Probably not. It's just my opinion based on what has happened. Trump makes the call and it's anybody's guess what he does next. I certainly wouldn't want to try and predict that.

By the way. I applaud your management of this forum. Must be like herding cats.

[LittleLebowski]

Probably not. It's just my opinion based on what has happened. Trump makes the call and it's anybody's guess what he does next. I certainly wouldn't want to try and predict that.

By the way. I applaud your management of this forum. Must be like herding cats.

Thank you, I really try to stay hands off. I'm acutely aware that this is my deceased friend's legacy on the internet and hope to keep the place running in the spirit he would wish.

[Bolt_Overide]

No, Iran is definitely behind it. That isn't the Iraqi gov't trying to burn the US embassy down and killing US civilians, it's Iranian backed militia in Iraq, the ones the US hit with air strikes a few days ago. The Iraqi gov't only has power as long as the US military is there, which probably won't be much longer. They're playing the long game here and dragging their feet, like they always do. Trump has said many times that he doesn't want troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. It's going to be really hard to keep saying that during a campaign while at the same time you keep sending more troops into the ME.


Mike Pompeo would make a really lousy poker player. His body language says he's lying.

I'm not sure that there is an appreciable difference between the two any longer. Iran has had it's fingers in that pie for a long time.

[Zincwarrior]

Looks like we are officially leaving Iraq.
http://news.trust.org/item/20200106193750-gbx3f

[Glenn E. Meyer]

*Ahem* I disagree.

My evaluation is that despite what actions you call serious resistance, Lee spoke against it, the states stayed part of the Union, the slaves stayed free. Thus, the resistance didn’t accomplish anything as far as the result. You may claim the Jim Crow actions were successful resistance but I will pass on that analysis. Similarly for Germany and Japan whatever one calls serious resistance, the Nazi state was done as was the Imperial military in Japan. By the 50’s both were integrated back into normal international society.

They didn’t fall apart as Iraq did.