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Thread: Week 335: Grounded Reaching

  1. #1
    Leopard Printer Mr_White's Avatar
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    Week 335: Grounded Reaching

    Week 335: Grounded Reaching

    Results may be posted until September 23rd, 2019.

    Designed by: Gabe White
    Range: Shooter’s choice
    Target: USPSA upper A-zone
    Par time: Shooter’s choice
    Start Position: Holstered – see below for alternatives
    Rounds Fired: Varies

    The title (and goal) of this drill refers to a productive application of your existing skill level. The task is to select a distance and time where you can draw and hit a USPSA upper A-zone at least three times consecutively – and there’s a little more to it than that.

    Procedure: Hang the target at a distance of your choice. Set the par time of your choice. The handgun starts loaded and holstered – if restricted by range rules, you can start at ready instead. At the start signal, draw/present and fire one shot to the upper A-zone. If you draw/present and hit the upper A-zone three times consecutively AND under the par time, you have successfully completed the drill and it is over.

    Each time the shooter fails – whether on accuracy, time, or both – add one to the number of consecutive successful repetitions required to complete the drill. Example: The shooter sets the target at 25 yards and chooses a 5-second par time. The shot misses the upper A-zone and is fired at 7.5 seconds, which fails on both accuracy and time. The shooter now must perform four repetitions successfully in order to complete the drill. If the shooter fails again, they must now complete five consecutive repetitions to complete the drill, and so on.

    Change the distance/time parameters anytime you wish. Same example continued: The shooter who set the target at 25 yards and used a 5-second par might conclude that they are unlikely, having failed once, to complete (now four!) consecutive attempts. Rather than continuing to dig a deeper hole by attempting more shots that are not certain enough, the shooter might sensibly conclude that they should try a distance and time that they can realistically make three times consecutively.

    Here’s a little math to drive the point home: If a shooter has a 50% success rate on a given shot, that shooter has a 12.5% chance of making three consecutive hits right out of the gate (.5 x .5 x .5 = .125). That is not a good bet. That shooter is highly likely to stack up more and more required successful reps to complete the drill. They would be better served by selecting a distance and time where they have a lot higher than 50% success rate.

    At the other extreme, a shooter might select a task that is SO far within their skill level that the drill essentially contains no challenge. The reason not to do that lies between the shooter, their pride, and the internet. I personally would like to post success on a drill that was at least somewhat challenging to me, rather than so easy that there was basically no risk of failure. Pick the toughest shot that you think you can make three times in a row. This will require skill, a realistic frame of reference of that skill, and humility.

    Please report the following when you post your results in this thread:

    Starting position (concealed, holstered, ready)
    Starting distance and par time
    Any changes to the distance or par that you made along the way
    How many successful consecutive reps you ended up needing to make
    Pass (successfully completed the required number of consecutive reps) or Fail (fell in a hole, didn’t get out, and gave up)
    Anything you noticed

    Training with firearms is an inherently dangerous activity. Be sure to follow all safety protocols when using firearms or practicing these drills. These drills are provided for information purposes only. Use at your own risk.
    Last edited by Mr_White; 08-23-2019 at 04:38 PM.
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  2. #2
    Member JHC's Avatar
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    I love it. Too much math notwithstanding.
    "I realized all the mindset talk was useless without action and that with action, all the mindset talk was unnecessary." - Mike Pannone
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  3. #3
    Leopard Printer Mr_White's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JHC View Post
    I love it. Too much math notwithstanding.
    LOL. I thought the basic math behind 'rolling the dice' on uncertain shots was worth considering. Really, I think this is part of the difficult and maybe deceptive nature of 'guaranteeing' stuff in shooting. I laid out the numbers for hitting a 50/50 task three times consecutively (not good, there's a 12.5% chance of doing that.) How about a task where we are 90% likely to succeed on a single iteration? .90 x .90 x .90 = 72.9% chance of succeeding at three in a row (I would have thought that would be higher, absent doing the math.) What if we want to end up with a 95%+ chance of completing a task successfully across three out of three attempts. Being 98% likely to complete a single task ALMOST gets us there for three in a row. .98 x .98 x .98 = 94.11%.

    I see a few implications to this. To me, this is a powerful mathematical argument for discipline in training and practice. I also think it's illustrative of what I've seen in competitive shooting - higher skilled shooters make fewer and less severe mistakes than lower skilled shooters. Everyone is trying not to make mistakes, but everyone still makes them. The math suggests to me that there are so many chances to make mistakes in a match that the probability wins out and some mistakes still get made.
    Technical excellence supports tactical preparedness
    Lord of the Food Court
    http://www.gabewhitetraining.com
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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr_White View Post
    LOL. I thought the basic math behind 'rolling the dice' on uncertain shots was worth considering. Really, I think this is part of the difficult and maybe deceptive nature of 'guaranteeing' stuff in shooting. I laid out the numbers for hitting a 50/50 task three times consecutively (not good, there's a 12.5% chance of doing that.) How about a task where we are 90% likely to succeed on a single iteration? .90 x .90 x .90 = 72.9% chance of succeeding at three in a row (I would have thought that would be higher, absent doing the math.) What if we want to end up with a 95%+ chance of completing a task successfully across three out of three attempts. Being 98% likely to complete a single task ALMOST gets us there for three in a row. .98 x .98 x .98 = 94.11%.

    I see a few implications to this. To me, this is a powerful mathematical argument for discipline in training and practice. I also think it's illustrative of what I've seen in competitive shooting - higher skilled shooters make fewer and less severe mistakes than lower skilled shooters. Everyone is trying not to make mistakes, but everyone still makes them. The math suggests to me that there are so many chances to make mistakes in a match that the probability wins out and some mistakes still get made.
    +1 I'm sure you're right. My math was even more basic. Don't MISS first time out!


    Penalties for missing is really popular in some circles.
    "I realized all the mindset talk was useless without action and that with action, all the mindset talk was unnecessary." - Mike Pannone
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  5. #5
    Slammin' with Abandon
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    5" m&p 2.0 w/ dawsons
    Jmck 2.5 aiwb w/ phlster tuckstrut
    T shirt concealment
    Cold first 3 shots of the day

    Distance - 7 yards
    Par - 2.5


    1. 1.83 - hit
    2. 2.02 - hit
    3. 1.86 - hit

    Pass

    Turns out i underestimated myself on this one. 2.5 was nearly a half second too generous. Even on the last two runs, i felt like i took forever but still had too much time left. First three shots of the day and clean, not a bad watt to start the day.

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    "If failure is not an option, then, most of the time, neither is success." - Seth Godin

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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by backtrail540 View Post
    5" m&p 2.0 w/ dawsons
    Jmck 2.5 aiwb w/ phlster tuckstrut
    T shirt concealment
    Cold first 3 shots of the day

    Distance - 7 yards
    Par - 2.5


    1. 1.83 - hit
    2. 2.02 - hit
    3. 1.86 - hit

    Pass

    Turns out i underestimated myself on this one. 2.5 was nearly a half second too generous. Even on the last two runs, i felt like i took forever but still had too much time left. First three shots of the day and clean, not a bad watt to start the day.

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    IIRC PatMac has something similar in a class I read about a few years back. In his context it was about accountability and it was a 10 yard D1 to the headbox or a 3x5. I am fuzzy about which. His too was about finding your own par for sinking the dang shot.


    I'm thinking of starting out a 5 yards and 2.0. I'd rather not miss right out the gate and then see where I can stretch to.


    Once when working up a "standard" with coaching from Kevin B he noticed I was factoring in what was a realistic par for a good shooter etc etc


    His counsel was to the effect "define the problem you're trying to solve and make a best effort to determine how fast that problem would need to be solved. That's your par. Not what you or anyone else can shoot it in. The problem is the problem independent of shooter skill." I went to contemplate on the Tree of Woe.
    Last edited by JHC; 08-29-2019 at 12:24 PM.
    "I realized all the mindset talk was useless without action and that with action, all the mindset talk was unnecessary." - Mike Pannone
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr_White View Post
    Week 335: Grounded Reaching

    If you get off the plane with an abacus under your arm next year I'm putting you right back on it.
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  8. #8
    PF9C
    DIY AIWB
    Concealed, under t shirt
    10yds.
    3 sec. par

    1=2.42
    2=2.06
    3=2.24

    Barely pulled it off:

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    Ran it again, just to make sure that wasn't a fluke.

    1=1.96
    2=2.44
    3=2.10

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    I guess I sold myself short on the par time, but felt like that's what I'd need to sink the shot. The psychological effect of knowing how much (or how little) time you have to make the shot sure messes with ya.

    That's good though.
    Last edited by ViniVidivici; 08-30-2019 at 08:09 AM.
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  9. #9
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    This was great. I started with the 43X shooting from concealed AIWB. Shot cold insofar as I'd only shot 5 at 40 yards before kicking this off.

    43X from AIWB under a buttoned up flannel shirt

    Par set at 2.5 sec

    Distance 5 yards.

    Shots:
    1. 2.30 bravo dang it! Now I have to shoot 4.
    2. 2.23 alpha
    3. 2.09 alpha
    4. 2.06 alpha
    5. 2.14 alpha YAY four.

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    Then I moved out to 7 yards, same par.
    Times were similar. But it went thusly: 1. alpha. 2. alpha. 3. bravo dang it!!! 4. bravo grrrrr. 5. alpha! 6. bravo. FUCK IT!


    Later re-shot it with the 9mm Operator from OWB but started out at 7 yards, same 2.5 par.


    1. 1.80 alpha

    2. 1.75 alpha

    3. 1.75 alpha Too easy.


    Good times
    Last edited by JHC; 09-06-2019 at 09:14 AM.
    "I realized all the mindset talk was useless without action and that with action, all the mindset talk was unnecessary." - Mike Pannone
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  10. #10
    Slammin' with Abandon
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    Quote Originally Posted by JHC View Post

    Later re-shot it with the 9mm Operator from OWB but started out at 7 yards, same 2.5 par.


    1. 1.80 alpha

    2. 1.75 alpha

    3. 1.75 alpha Too easy.


    Good times
    Damn cheater guns
    "If failure is not an option, then, most of the time, neither is success." - Seth Godin

    Got money, cigarettes, the time?
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