Hurricane Season 2019

[Drang]

And so it begins...

Pull in your ears, Gulf Coast.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm, Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[RoyGBiv]

We had the busiest, longest spring storm season (lasting into July) in memory. Now we jump straight to hurricane season?

Weather is fun!

[theJanitor]

The water is really warm in the pacific this year, I see a busy season for us. It's been brutally humid for the past three weeks. That's always a bad sign here

[jwperry]

Make sure you have your waterBOBs, batteries, portable fans and composting toilets ready.

My liquor cabinet is 5x what it was for Irma, I'm sure I can make new friends now if we get hit again.

Sent from my Moto G (5) Plus using Tapatalk

[revchuck38]

I need to stock up on beer...oh yeah, and water.

[Hambo]

And so it begins...

It didn't last long, but the first storm of the year was in May.

[texasaggie2005]

After living thru the depths of Harvey, I'm having a hard time getting worried about any type of hurricane that doesn't involve massive winds.

[Rex G]

After living thru the depths of Harvey, I'm having a hard time getting worried about any type of hurricane that doesn't involve massive winds.

Claudette, some time ago, probably the late Seventies, or very early Eighties, and Allison, early in this century, were record-setting rain events, in their day, for SE Texas, at 26 and 36 inches, respectively, even though they were “merely” tropical storms. I am not saying that one should “worry” about anything, but we are going to be ready for street flooding to keep us confined, and prepare for extended periods without electrical power service. We are OK with canned food, but might add a bit extra, for good measure.

We are calm, but, paying attention.

It took Harvey to actually put water in our house. One would think that this storm will not dump 50-60 inches of rain,
as did Harvey, but, well, I will presume nothing.

A big tree, that has weakened since the previous strong wind, can kill a guy during a Spring thunderstorm. Let’s be safe.

[Drang]

Local information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two: New Orleans/Baton Rouge LA, Lake Charles LA

000
WTNT32 KNHC 101731
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 86.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk...please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic...available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning, followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 18 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Drang]

It didn't last long, but the first storm of the year was in May.

Yes, but Subtropical Storm Andrea was far out to mid-Atlantic. (And technically "pre-hurricane season", which officially began on June 1st.)

BTW, the official "Name List" for hurricanes this year:
Atlantic
Andrea Barry Chantal Dorian Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen
Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

Eastern Pacific:
Alvin Barbara Cosme Dalila Erick Flossie Gil Henriette Ivo Juliette Kiko Lorena
Mario Narda Octave Priscilla Raymond Sonia Tico Velma Wallis Xina York Zelda

Central Pacific
Akoni Ema Hone Iona Keli Lala Moke Nolo Olana Pena Ulana Wale

The name lists for the Atlantic and East Pacific rotate every six years; there are 4 lists for the Central Pacific (Hawai'i). Presumably, since the lists are so short they will go to the next list if they exhaust one during a year. Historically, though, Hawai'i doesn't get that many tropical cyclones.