Tensions with Iran

[Borderland]

Pretty much sums up how I feel about the whole thing..I’m 65, and I remember the oil embargo that OPEC put on the U.S. in the 70’s..and how the price of gas would jump every time some Arab would fart. Well, the tables have turned, and we really don’t need them, I’m all for pulling our troops out of the entire region, and let the chips fall where they may.. Let them settle their problems...

It's not that simple. Iran is making a play for more middle eastern oil. Saddam did the same thing in the first gulf war with Russian arms. Russia is helping Iran do that again. If Iran controlled more middle eastern oil, Russia could literally bring Europe to its knees. Most of their imports are from Russia and Saudi Arabia. I think Russia has a plan for Europe and it includes the Iranians.

https://www.iene.eu/europe-increasin...sia-p2795.html

Of course there's no reason we should feel compelled to bail out Europe again either. Didn't really do much for us the first time. People in Europe should be alarmed at what is transpiring in the middle east. They're the ones that need to do something about it, not the US.

[ralph]

It's not that simple. Iran is making a play for more middle eastern oil. Saddam did the same thing in the first gulf war with Russian arms. Russia is helping Iran do that again. If Iran controlled more middle eastern oil, Russia could literally bring Europe to its knees. Most of their imports are from Russia and Saudi Arabia. I think Russia has a plan for Europe and it includes the Iranians.

https://www.iene.eu/europe-increasin...sia-p2795.html

Of course there's no reason we should feel compelled to bail out Europe again either. Didn't really do much for us the first time. People in Europe should be alarmed at what is transpiring in the middle east. They're the ones that need to do something about it, not the US.

That’s exactly right...that’s the EU’s problem.. Not ours, let them get in bed with the Russians/Iranians, and take it in the ass, We have enough of our own problems here in the U.S. to deal with. Fuck the EU, this time around, they can bail themselves out.

[Zincwarrior]

Also China. They get their oil and gas from the ME primarily.

[TAZ]

Also China. They get their oil and gas from the ME primarily.

If Iran turns the ME into a bigger dumpster fire than it already is, there is a good chance the Russians will come out ahead. They will be the easiest energy market for the EU and China. Maybe a bidding war will screw both their economies. Who will Putin screw over the hardest? Either way the US can stave off the negative effects with correct economic policies. At least for short term. No true ideas on the long term viability of US based energy fields. AFAIC, the us needs to continue the drilling and slow the exportation. Preferably standardize gasoline formulations across the country to make refining more efficient. And we could pop some corn and watch the EU squirm. Even though I’m from Europe and still have relatives there, I’m over the whole spill US blood and bankrupt generations of American kids to help them..... a third time. Same for the Saudis and the rest of the ME. If they want to butcher themselves, go for it. That sand can suck up a lot of blood. Keep it there and I don’t have a problem with it.

[45dotACP]

Fuck it I'd buy a Prius or an electric car if it meant spending less on Middle East energy sources.

They can sort this mess out their own damn selves.

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[rcbusmc24]

Suddenly all the Black bottom MPF squadrons are moving.... For a " exercise"... normal movement is Five or Six ships a year for rotational reset. There are many more moving right now.... Last time they moved in these numbers was right before the invasion of Iraq.... Just saying...

[JRB]

Suddenly all the Black bottom MPF squadrons are moving.... For a " exercise"... normal movement is Five or Six ships a year for rotational reset. There are many more moving right now.... Last time they moved in these numbers was right before the invasion of Iraq.... Just saying...

Our optempo locally has increased a good bit as well. Thus far it has the vibe of maximizing available options, not committing to any specific course of action.

[rcbusmc24]

There are a bunch of things in the last year or so that have occurred that are intriguing... None of if will ever be repeated in a open forum but I recall one particular brief where the phrase "empty the nation's magazines" was not used ironically....

Logistics are fun......

[trailrunner]

That’s exactly right...that’s the EU’s problem.. Not ours, let them get in bed with the Russians/Iranians....

One of our reasons for staying in the ME is to keep our enemies out. If we were to throw up our hands and egress all forces, Russia allied with Iran would expand their control in the ME both politically and militarily. Could Europe take our role in this? Highly doubtful.

Iran is poking the western allies, trying to get a reaction, seeing how much we'll take before we react, or hopefully, over react. They shoot down a drone. They fly small UAVs near our ships in the gulf. They point small, fast boats at our ships to simulate an attack. This fund the Houthis to do more direct attacks and then conveniently deny their involvement. All of this is easy. It's low risk. They deny it, or they'll say we were in their airspace or in their waters. For direct attacks on the Saudis, it's the Houthis.

What would happen if Saudi Arabia directly retaliated? What would they retaliate against? Targets in Saudi are easy, because they can target the wealth of the tankers or the refineries. What is an equivalent target in Iran? Maybe they could attack a missile site, or an airfield. So what? Say Saudi Arabia retaliated, then it escalates into another full-blown Iran-Iraq war? That would get a little complicated with Iraq in the middle, and I don't think Saudi Arabia is ready for a large ground war, so it would probably take place largely over the gulf, which in turn would shut down the tankers, and have a huge effect on the worldwide economy. Iran wants this to blow up. They don't have much to lose.

[FredWyn]

What I can't figure out is what does Iran have to gain by poking the bear and finally being destroyed in a huge ground conflict?