Continuing the theme of noting just how fucked crime statistics are, it's worth pointing out yet again that participation with the UCR is voluntary and that a sizeable chunk of police agencies in the US do not send numbers to the UCR, or do not send accurate numbers to the UCR. This includes some of the places with the worst crime problems.
In 2021 only a little more than half of police agencies in the US actually sent numbers in to the UCR:
https://observablehq.com/@themarshal...ata-collection
And "incident based reporting" is still bullshit.
Sadly, now the Bureau of Justice Statistics has transitioned to the NIBRS system, too:
https://bjs.ojp.gov/national-inciden...g-system-nibrs
The translation you can take from that set of propaganda is that yet again crime numbers will be dramatically divorced from reality due to a couple of simple factors. The BJS is no longer going to be gathering information independent of the FBI's fucked up system, and we know that lots of places are simply not reporting data to the FBI's fucked up system. So that means that magically violent crime will be lower, just in time to be a talking point to deny the damage done by the national Democratic party's war on policing and self defense in general.The 2021 data year will mark the first time that the FBI and BJS estimate reported crime in the United States based solely on NIBRS data. Those crime estimates will be derived from data submitted by states and local agencies that were certified to report data in the 2021 data year.As of June 2022—
- all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are certified to report crime data to NIBRS
- 66% of the U.S. population is covered by NIBRS-reporting law enforcement agencies
- 62 NIBRS-certified agencies serve cities with a population of 250,000 or more, covering a total population of more than 37 million persons
If you think this is all coincidental, I have a bridge for sale.
3/15/2016
Forty years ago in my Intro To Criminal Justice class one of the things that stuck out is exactly what TCinVA talks about. It’s also skewed by how the Chief wants crime stats reported at any given notice. We had ComStat and one of the biggest jokes was vehicle burgs. We got ordered had to add criminal damage to the reports. It’s one of the elements of burglary already. I’d bet they classified burglaries as criminal damage as much as they could. Attempted vehicle burglary with nothing taken? That’s criminal damage not a Part 1 crime. Wow look at how our vehicle burgs dropped this quarter.
Just a dog chauffeur that used to hold the dumb end of the leash.
We did that with residential burglaries where nothing was taken. Either Trespassing or Criminal Mischief. If the officer didn't classify it "correctly" then the Sgt would. If he didn't, Report Review clerks would.
I got assigned to a Burglary Task Force during the Copper Crisis of 2009-2012 and was told that this fuckery was at the behest of the Chamber of Commerce because business/residential burglaries have a huge impact on the attractiveness of a city to investors and businesses as well as the Social Media Realtor ranking sites.
Locally, I found that a criminal's arrest record that showed a bunch of Trespassing and criminal Mischief arrests meant that he was a frequent flyer burglar who was pleading down burglary and skating off because the prosecutors simply couldn't a)manage the insane volume of offenses and b)were under so much back pressure from the Judges and State Prisons to only send up violent offenders due to consent decrees about overcrowding.
It's a self licking ice cream cone: go easy on crime until it's so out of control that you are forced to go easy on crime because there's so much of it you can't incarcerate enough criminals because we need to understand that Systemic Racism causes crime so we need to go easy on crime...
We did the same thing. They're still doing as far as I know. Auto Burglaries without a suspect in custody are titled "Theft, From Locked Auto". Kept the burglary stats down, and also dramatically increased the arrests to incidents rate. Our local DAs office also had an unwritten triage policy that they would not actually charge a suspect until their 5th arrest for Auto Burglary. Combine that with the Public Safety Realignment Acts sentencing guidelines, Prop 36, Prop 47 etc. making almost everything a misdemeanor, and our local policy of "shall not pursue for property crimes", and you have a situation where LE and the criminal justice system literally cannot fix the problem, which has of course continued to get worse. We had a prolific local booster who was CONVICTED 3 times in an 18 month period for Auto burglary.....served a total of 8 months county jail time....no State time. Tell me again the Booster Task Force is gonna make a dent in that....
On the bright side, I've noticed recently that the dealing out of summary justice in big cities in the Pacific Northwest is greeted with a lot less gasping and 911 calls these days.
A lot of these people have called 911 by now and not got any sort of meaningful response, so while you'd still have a hard time getting them to admit that guy just needs an ass kicking they are fine with not paying attention.
Progress.
”But in the end all of these ideas just manufacture new criminals when the problem isn't a lack of criminals.” -JRB