Something tells me that we are headed into the recession that was forecasted last year to hit right around this time. It may have been accelerated a bit by trade policies, but the tech and oil sell offs tell me that 2019 is going to hurt. We’ll know more in the next 5-6 months.
I like my rifles like my women - short, light, fast, brown, and suppressed.
Economy is strong. More jobs than people looking. Market is correcting, not crashing. Divided government is historically good for the stock market.
Nobody's done their 2018 (new regs) taxes yet. Once they do, we'll see what that does to consumer confidence.
YMMV, of course.
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." - Thomas Jefferson, Virginia Constitution, Draft 1, 1776
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Last edited by Mark D; 11-20-2018 at 11:15 AM.
10-year and 2-year treasury notes are yielding nearly the same. If 2-year notes get ahead of 10-year notes? The recession is more or less an absolute. FED will have to raise interest rates to correct this, not good news for heavily endebted or creditors.
Other indicators, consumer retail spending is high, unemployment low - two great signs of economic progress. But the problem is - spending is high and unemployment low, because interest rates are low. When FED raises the interest rates, corrections will occur.
Now is a good time to consider buying into 2-year CDs or Treasury notes. The yields will be lower, but the risk will be much lower too. Some CDs are as high as 3% yield, which is a half point higher than expected inflation. You’ll come out the otherside in good shape. I don’t expect this recession to last as long as the last one.
Last edited by RevolverRob; 11-20-2018 at 11:51 AM.
Think we could weather an EU recession without going into one officially? Italy is being watched with concern.Originally Posted by Sensei
I haven't seen anything on bond yields lately to know if they are close to inversion.
“Remember, being healthy is basically just dying as slowly as possible,” Ricky Gervais
Trump said that it is not 'interesting' to talk about the economy right now.
I suspect it will remain uninteresting until we see a rebound ... and I'm not holding my breath.
I am pretty sure that some of my aggregated investments are lower than when he took office - need to go check.
Are you now, or have you ever been a member of the Doodie Project?
Having been through a few major market drops, bear markets, and corrections over the past 35 years or so, my philosophy remains a simple one:
Keep your portfolio aligned with your ability, willingness and need to take (additional) risk to meet your goals...and re-balance, (%equities / %bonds / %cash), once they get out of kilter by 5% or more. Then, as John Bogle would advise: sit tight and stay the course.
There's nothing civil about this war.
Financial markets and private citizens prefer stability. Neither group is feeling warm and fuzzy about now.
I wouldn't get too excited about oil prices. A lot of that aspect is drummed up fear in the current market. OPEC plans aren't working out to their benefit. Domestic oil production is both high and profitable, even at $45/bbl. I mean hell, Oil got hammered in 2014 and did it REALLY damage the economy? It certainly didn't send us into a recession. There's some concerning trends with the Fed and interest rates. That's the kind of thing I would be more concerned with.
Yup.
I’m of the chilling opinion myself, and my 401k lets me rebalance 1/qtr, so I’m planning to move most of my account into bonds and a few conservative funds after December 13.
I’m trying to figure out what potential aggressive moves I want to make with my gambling fund within my IRA come January.
I’m not rosy about the next year or so, but not doomy either. But, after being the only member of my family that went with my instincts before 2008 cut them all in half, I’m willing to leave a little on the table to avoid that outcome whenever I start to smell a stink.
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