Predictive tests in water

[SiriusBlunder]

Test: .40 S&W 165 gr. Speer Gold Dot JHP

<snip>

Q-model
DoP: 11.404 inches
Wound Mass: 2.064 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.433 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 11.588 inches
Wound Mass: 2.097 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.488 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel

<snip>

On this round in 4LD testing, manufacturer data is:

Penetration: 17.55"
Expansion: .583"

http://www.le.vistaoutdoor.com/wound...omparison.aspx

One test from Doc I found shows:

.40 S&W Speer 165 gr Gold Dot JHP; ave vel=1092 fps (S&W 4006); gel cal=10cm@578fps
BG: pen=15.0" RD=0.63", RL=0.37", RW=165.2gr
4LD: pen=16.5", RD=0.55", RL=0.51", RW=165.4gr

https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread...65-gr-Gold-Dot

However, you are predicting about 11.5 inches of penetration?

[the Schwartz]

On this round in 4LD testing, manufacturer data is:

Penetration: 17.55"
Expansion: .583"

http://www.le.vistaoutdoor.com/wound...omparison.aspx

One test from Doc I found shows:

.40 S&W Speer 165 gr Gold Dot JHP; ave vel=1092 fps (S&W 4006); gel cal=10cm@578fps
BG: pen=15.0" RD=0.63", RL=0.37", RW=165.2gr
4LD: pen=16.5", RD=0.55", RL=0.51", RW=165.4gr

https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread...65-gr-Gold-Dot

However, you are predicting about 11.5 inches of penetration?

Good question, DMWINCLE.

With the test data that I have―

Diameter: 0.684 inch
Weight: 164.4 gr. (99.64% retained)
Velocity: 1,127 fps

Test Firearm: Steyr M40-A1 with a 4.00-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (~10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 79°F
Barrier: 4 layers of denim

―in which a Speer .40 S&W 165-grain Gold Dot expands to an average diameter of 0.684 inch (which presents 0.3675 in² of frontal presentation area as opposed to the listed JHP that expanded to 0.583 inch with a frontal presentation area of just 0.2669 in²), while retaining 164.4 grains of its initial mass with an impact velocity of 1,127 fps, that is correct. A JHP of the same mass and similar velocity exhibiting greater expansion will not penetrate as far as a JHP with a smaller expanded diameter (the 'averaged' data that you present).

In this case, all three models (the Q-model, the mTHOR model and the MacPherson bullet penetration model) using the test data supplied above agree with one another

Diameter: 0.684 inch
Weight: 164.4 gr. (99.64% retained)
Velocity: 1,127 fps

Test Firearm: Steyr M40-A1 with a 4.00-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (~10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 79°F
Barrier: 4 layers of denim

Q-model
DoP: 11.404 inches
Wound Mass: 2.064 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.433 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 11.588 inches
Wound Mass: 2.097 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.488 cubic inches

MacPherson
DoP: 11.160 inches (10.160 ― 12.160 inches)
Wound Mass: 1.841 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.061 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel

JHPs of the same manufacturing source and construction can, and often do, expand to significantly different diameters even under the same test conditions. Differences in impact velocities―sometimes in excess of 100 fps―amongst the test rounds, individual material irregularities that arise during the manufacturing process (in each bullet), etc.....these factors, and more, all contribute to such (unpredictable) behavior.

[the Schwartz]

Federal Classic .40 S&W 155 grain Hi-Shok JHP







Average Diameter: 0.533 inch
Recovered Weight: 154.4 gr. (99.61% retained)
Impact Velocity: 1,123 fps

Test Firearm: unmodified Steyr M40-A1; 4.00-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (≈10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 82°F
Barrier: 4 layers of denim

Predictive Analysis:

Q-model
DoP: 18.541 inches
Wound Mass: 2.037 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.389 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 17.877 inches
Wound Mass: 1.964 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.267 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated 10% ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel

[the Schwartz]

Winchester .40 S&W 180-grain PDX1 JHP (S40SWPDB1)



Average Diameter: 0.609 inch
Recovered Weight: 179.9 gr. (99.94% retained)
Impact Velocity: 1,081 fps

Test Firearm: Steyr M40-A1 with a 4.00-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (≈10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 78°F
Barrier: 4 layers of denim

Q-model
DoP: 15.712 inches
Wound Mass: 2.254 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.749 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 15.511 inches
Wound Mass: 2.225 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.702 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel

[the Schwartz]

Winchester .45ACP 230-grain PDX1 JHP (S45PDB)



Average Diameter: 0.680 inch
Recovered Weight: 229.7 gr. (99.87% retained)
Impact Velocity: 889 fps

Test Firearm: Springfield XD with a 5.00-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (≈10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 80° Fahrenheit
Barrier: 4 layers of denim

Predictive Analysis:

Q-model
DoP: 13.726 inches
Wound Mass: 2.455 ounces
Wound Volume: 4.083 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 13.745 inches
Wound Mass: 2.458 ounces
Wound Volume: 4.089 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel

Both penetration models are in tight agreement with one another regarding predicted maximum penetration depth, wound mass and permanent cavity volume. The PDX1 is a bonded design that has its roots in the bonded Ranger line up. I have never seen a PDX1 not expand to a 'picture perfect' mushroom either in water or in 10% gelatin. The consistency of this design always impresses me.

[the Schwartz]

Winchester Ranger 9mm 147 gr. SXT JHP (RA9T)





Average Diameter: 0.4975 inch
Recovered Weight: 141.4 grains (96.19% retained weight)
Recovered Length: 0.470 inch
Impact Velocity: 1,085 fps

Test Firearm: stock Glock 17 with a 4.49-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (≈10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 82° Fahrenheit
Barrier: 4 layers of denim

Predictive Analysis:

Q-model
DoP: 19.353 inches
Wound Mass: 1.853 ounces
Wound Volume: 3.082 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 18.319 inches
Wound Mass: 1.754 ounces
Wound Volume: 2.917 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel

Expansion of this round against 4LD, which was 1.404 times caliber, left a little to be desired and resulted in an average predicted maximum penetration depth of 18.836 inches. Average predicted permanent wound mass is 1.804 ounces (about 51.14 grams).

[the Schwartz]

Test #1: Speer 9mm 124-grain Gold Dot JHP, standard pressure (23618)

Diameter: 0.523 inch
Weight: 123.5 gr. (99.60% retained)
Velocity: 1,160 fps

Test Firearm: stock Glock 17 with a 4.49-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (≈10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 84° Fahrenheit
Barrier: 4 layers of denim

Frontal Expansion Face #1:


Rear, test #1:


The average expanded diameter of all test projectiles was obtained by measuring the three maximum and minimum expansion face dimensions across the leading edge of the expansion face where the flow field separates from the edge of the test projectile. In this particular case, the minimum dimensions were 0.448'', 0.458'' and 0.4575'' and the maximum dimensions were 0.589'', 0.5975'', and 0.589'' for an average expanded diameter of 0.532''. Recovered length was measured at 0.375''.

Maximum dimensions:


Minimum dimensions:


Predictive Analysis:

Q-model
DoP: 15.770 inches
Wound Mass: 1.668 ounces
Wound Volume: 2.775 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 15.212 inches
Wound Mass: 1.609 ounces
Wound Volume: 2.677 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel


As usual, the Speer Gold Dot JHP shows why it has such a fine reputation. The Speer 9mm 124-grain Gold Dot JHP (23618) definitely qualifies as a superior selection even in its standard pressure loading. No evidence of jacket/core separation was noted and the test round held on to the vast majority of its initial 124-grain weight while producing a predicted average penetration depth of 15.491 inches falling well into the Quantitative Ammunition Selection terminal penetration range recommendation of 14 — 18 inches of depth while producing gentle recoil that is likely to enhance accuracy when rapid, multiple shots are required to stop a life-threatening assault.

One of the alternatives to using a Fackler Box (mine is a 6' length of 8''-diameter PVC drainage pipe cut lengthwise to make a trough which is loaded with 1-gallon freezer storage bags filled with water) is using one-half gallon paper board beverage cartons to contain the water test medium for projectile evaluation. Care should be taken to ensure that the sensor ports remain free of obstruction by the paper towles, otherwise no velocity reading will occur.

Note the paper shop towels covering the chronograph. As the instrumental distance to the target face is only three feet, it is not unusual for water to be thrown into the chronograph's interior. Since employing this measure, I have yet to lose a chronograph due to water entering the electronics.



Typically, 'service-caliber' JHPs (regardless of caliber) rarely penetrate more than 5 or 6 cartons before coming to rest. Usually, I set up 10 — 12 cartons in the event that a JHP fails to expand so that the test specimen can be recovered for photographing, but this is not an absolute necessity unless one wants to ensure that a failed JHP doesn't ''get away''.

Of course, once the test bullet has been fired (and hopefully remains within the carefully arranged/aligned cartons) and recovered, it must be weighed, measured for maximum and minimum expansion diameters, and the impact velocity recorded for entry into the penetration equations found in Quantitative Ammunition Selection.

For those interested in further reading about this test method, I highly recommend the late Dr. Fackler's article, Fackler ML. Simplified Bullet Effect Testing. Wound Ballistics Rev 2001;5(2): 21 - 24 and those articles preceding Dr. Fackler's article such as, Jones RL. Water Testing .38 Special +P Hollow Points. Wound Ballistics Rev 1997;3(1): 13 - 16, where Jones uses the Poncelet form as modified by Duncan MacPherson in Bullet Penetration to predict the maximum penetration depth ('Table 3' on page 16 of Wound Ballistics Rev 1997;3(1)) of those projectiles that he fired into, and recovered from, water as suggested in Cotey, Jr. G. A Poor Man's Ballistics Lab. Rifle, March - April 1990; 22 (2) and the accompanying article, MacPherson D. The Dynamics of Tissue Simulation. Wound Ballistics Rev 1997;3( 1 ): 21 - 23, where Duncan MacPherson discusses at length the dynamic similtude of water and concludes that water is suitable terminal ballistic test medium.

[the Schwartz]

Test #2: Speer 9mm 124-grain Gold Dot JHP, standard pressure (23618)

Diameter: 0.525 inch
Weight: 124 gr. (100% retained)
Velocity: 1,134 fps

Test Firearm: unmodified Glock 17 with a 4.49-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (≈10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 84° Fahrenheit
Barrier: 4 layers of 1-ounce cotton T-shirt fabric

Frontal Expansion Face #2:


Lateral detail, #2:


Rear, test #2:


The average expanded diameter of all test projectiles was obtained by measuring the three maximum and minimum expansion face dimensions across the leading edge of the expansion face where the flow field separates from the edge of the test projectile. In this particular case, the minimum dimensions were 0.456'', 0.458'' and 0.4505'' and the maximum dimensions were 0.591'', 0.599'', and 0.596'' for an average expanded diameter of 0.525''. Recovered length was measured at 0.381''.

Analysis:

Q-model
DoP: 15.488 inches
Wound Mass: 1.651 ounces
Wound Volume: 2.746 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 14.905 inches
Wound Mass: 1.589 ounces
Wound Volume: 2.643 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel

With an average predicted maximum penetration depth of 15.197 inches and very consistent expansion through four layers of 16-ounce denim, the Speer 9mm 124-grain Gold Dot is good for approximately 1.62 ounces of damaged soft tissue equivalence.

[the Schwartz]

Test #3: Speer 9mm 124-grain Gold Dot JHP, standard pressure (23618)

Diameter: 0.559 inch
Weight: 124 gr. (100% retained)
Velocity: 1,171 fps

Test Firearm: unmodified Glock 17 with a 4.49-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (≈10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 84° Fahrenheit
Barrier: 4 layers of 1-ounce cotton T-shirt fabric

Frontal Expansion Face #3:


Rear, test #3:


The average expanded diameter of each test projectile was obtained by measuring the three maximum and minimum expansion face dimensions across the leading edge of the expansion face where the flow field separates from the edge of the test projectile. In this third test, the minimum expansion dimensions of the test Speer 9mm 124-grain Gold Dot JHP were 0.465'', 0.483'' and 0.471'' and the maximum expansion dimensions were 0.631'', 0.6355'', and 0.6695''. The average expanded diameter was calculated at 0.559'' and the final recovered length of the test round was measured at 0.367''.

Predictive Analysis:

Q-model
DoP: 13.754 inches
Wound Mass: 1.662 ounces
Wound Volume: 2.765 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 13.463 inches
Wound Mass: 1.627 ounces
Wound Volume: 2.707 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel

Test averages across all barriers in this test series are―

Average Recovered Diameter: 0.5357 inch (1.509x caliber)
Average Recovered Weight: 123.83 gr. (99.84% retained)
Average Recovered Length: 0.3743 inch
Average Impact Velocity: 1,155 fps

Average Predicted Penetration Depth: 14.773 inches
Average Predicted Wound Mass: 1.634 ounces
Average Predicted Wound Volume: 2.719 cubic inches

[the Schwartz]

Winchester USA 9mm 147 gr. JHP (USA9JHP2)

Diameter: 0.5827 inch
Weight: 147 gr. (100% retained)
Velocity: 972.2 fps
Recovered Length: 0.441 inch

Test Firearm: unmodified Glock 17 with a 4.49-inch barrel
Test Range: 3 meters (≈10 feet)
Test Medium: H₂O @ 78° Fahrenheit
Barrier: 4 layers of 1-ounce cotton T-shirt fabric



Predictive Analysis:

Q-model
DoP: 13.206 inches
Wound Mass: 1.734 ounces
Wound Volume: 2.885 cubic inches

mTHOR
DoP: 12.799 inches
Wound Mass: 1.681 ounces
Wound Volume: 2.796 cubic inches

DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
Wound Volume = volume of the entire permanent wound channel

While the Winchester USA 9mm 147 gr. JHP is an 'economy' load, its expansion to 1.65x initial caliber with an average predicted maximum penetration depth of 13.00 inches is surprisingly good. I believe that this projectile was once offered under the "Super X'' product line and is also the ammunition which was used to successfully correlate the terminal behavior of bullets in gelatin and human soft tissues in this article...

http://ar15.com/ammo/project/fackler...hester_9mm.pdf

...written by Eugene Wolberg, a Senior Firarms Criminologist for the San Diego Police Department Crime Lab.