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Thread: Predictive tests in water

  1. #91
    Here is the 2nd IWBA 4LD test—


    Norma 9x19mm 108-grain MHP (299740020)

    Date: 15th June 2021
    Temperature: 75°F
    Relative Humidity: 42%

    Test Firearm: unmodified Glock 17, 9x19mm
    Barrel Length: 4.49 inches
    Barrier: 4 layers of 16-ounce cotton denim, IWBA standard
    Range: 21 feet
    Test Medium: H2O @ 68°F

    Average Expanded Diameter: 0.6529 ± 0.0005 inch
    Recovered Weight: 108.5 grains
    Recovered Length: 0.4035 inch
    Impact Velocity: 1,227 fps

    Name:  5.) Norma 108-grain MHP fired from Glock 17 4.49'' barrel @ 1,227 fps, 4LD.jpg
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    Name:  5b.) Norma 108-grain MHP fired from Glock 17 4.49'' barrel @ 1,227 fps, 4LD (3).jpg
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    Predictive Analysis:

    Q-model
    DoP: 8.79 inches
    Wound Mass: 1.45 ounces
    Wound Cavity Volume: 2.41 cubic inches


    mTHOR model
    DoP: 8.94 inches
    Wound Mass: 1.47 ounces
    Wound Cavity Volume: 2.45 cubic inches


    And once again, strictly for the sake of comparison, the McPherson WTI model gives us a DoP of 9.63 inches and a Wound Mass of 1.26 oz.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection.

  2. #92
    Water test results follow for the Speer 9x19mm 124-grain Gold Dot +P JHP fired from the Ruger MAX-9.

    Not unexpectedly, the velocity of this particular load matches very closely the average velocity of the standard pressure 9mm Gold Dot JHP (1,155 fps) as tested from the 4.49'' barrel of my Glock 17 in 2018. The higher pressure of the +P offering makes up for the 1.30 inch shorter barrel in effect bringing the terminal performance of a longer barrel to the Ruger MAX-9 subcompact pistol.

    Speer 9x19mm 124 gr. Gold Dot +P JHP (23617)

    Date: 20th July 2021
    Temperature: 85°F
    Relative Humidity: 47%

    Test Firearm: unmodified Ruger MAX-9, 9x19mm
    Barrel Length: 3.20 inches
    Barrier: 4 layers of 16-ounce cotton denim, IWBA standard
    Range: 21 feet
    Test Medium: H2O @ 71°F

    Average Expanded Diameter: 0.5529 ± 0.0005 inch
    Recovered Weight: 125.2 grains
    Impact Velocity: 1,164 fps

    Name:  SPEER 9mm 124 +P GD Ruger 3.2'' 1164 e.jpg
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    Predictive Analysis:


    Q-model
    DoP: 14.18 inches
    Wound Mass: 1.68 ounces
    Wound Cavity Volume: 2.79 cubic inches


    mTHOR model
    DoP: 13.83 inches
    Wound Mass: 1.64 ounces
    Wound Cavity Volume: 2.72 cubic inches

    Average predicted maximum penetration depth of 14.00 ± 0.15 inches with an average permanent wound cavity volume of 2.75 in³.

    Comparison with the McPherson WTI model yields predictions of 13.70’’ penetration depth with a permanent wound mass of 1.38 oz.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection.

  3. #93
    Sellier & Bellot 10mm 180 gr. JHP (SB10B)

    Date: 25th July 2021
    Temperature: 89°F
    Relative Humidity: 66%

    Test Firearm: Dan Wesson Razorback, 10mm
    Barrel Length: 5.00 inches
    Barrier: None
    Range: 21 feet
    Test Medium: H2O @ 82°F

    Average Expanded Diameter: 0.7195 ± 0.0005 inch
    Recovered Weight: 177.0 grains
    Impact Velocity: 1,119 fps


    Name:  Sellier Bellot 10mm 180 gr at 1,119 fps 1.jpg
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    Name:  Sellier Bellot 10mm 180 gr at 1,119 fps 2.jpg
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    Predictive Analysis:

    Q-model
    DoP: 10.93 inches
    Wound Mass: 2.19 ounces
    Wound Cavity Volume: 3.64 cubic inches

    mTHOR model
    DoP: 11.22 inches
    Wound Mass: 2.25 ounces
    Wound Cavity Volume: 3.74 cubic inches

    With an average expanded diameter approaching ¾'', the sectional density of the Sellier & Bellot 10mm 180-grain JHP was redefined from a pre-impact sectional density of 0.1603 to 0.0488 at impact—a decrease of nearly 70%. Still, the test bullet is predicted to penetrate to an average maximum depth of 11.08 inches and produce a wound cavity volume of 3.70 ounces while retaining 98.33% of its pre-impact mass. I suspect that penetration would increase somewhat if this projectile was fired through an IWBA 4LD standard barrier test as JHP expansion tends to be mitigated by passage through four layers of 16-ounce denim.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection.

  4. #94
    Hornady 5.7x28mm 40 gr. V-MAX JHP

    Date: 25th July 2021
    Temperature: 89°F
    Relative Humidity: 66%

    Test Firearm: Ruger-57™, 5.7x28mm
    Barrel Length: 4.94 inches
    Barrier: None
    Range: 21 feet
    Test Medium: H2O @ 82°F

    Average Expanded Diameter: 0.2777 ± 0.0005 inch
    Recovered Weight: 18.3 grains
    Impact Velocity: 1,828 fps

    Name:  Hornady VMAX FN5.7x28 40 1828  areal detail.jpg
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    Name:  Hornady VMAX FN5.7x28 40 base detail.jpg
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    Predictive Analysis:

    Q-model
    DoP: 11.68 inches
    Wound Mass: 0.348 ounces
    Wound Cavity Volume: 0.579 cubic inches

    mTHOR model
    DoP: 11.20 inches
    Wound Mass: 0.334 ounces
    Wound Cavity Volume: 0.555 cubic inches

    DoP: Depth of Penetration

    This water test was conducted using a Ruger-57™ pistol and a Hornady 5.7x28mm 40 gr. V-MAX JHP loaded over 5.0 grains of Alliant's Power Pistol. The 40-grain Hornady V-MAX bullet was fired into the water test medium with no barrier present. It expanded radically, shed its jacket, and fragmented losing 21.7 grains—or 54.25%—of its initial mass. Radical expansion, in which a bullet loses more than 10% of its mass through fragmentation, severely limits the maximum terminal penetration depth of a JHP. In this case, the Hornady 5.7x28mm 40 gr. V-MAX JHP would fall just shy of the 12-inch penetration minimum established by the F.B.I. test protocols by a little more than ½-inch on the average. In strong agreement with both the Q-model and mTHOR, the MacPherson WTI model predicts a maximum terminal penetration depth for this round of 11.15 inches with a corresponding wound mass of 0.273 ounces.
    Last edited by the Schwartz; 08-05-2021 at 11:23 PM.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection.

  5. #95
    Winchester Super-X .45 ACP 185 gr. Silvertip JHP (X45ASHP2)

    Date: 25th July 2021
    Temperature: 89°F
    Relative Humidity: 66%

    Test Firearm: Les Baer 1911A1, .45 ACP
    Barrel Length: 5.00 inches
    Barrier: 4 layers of 16-ounce cotton denim, IWBA standard
    Range: 21 feet
    Test Medium: H2O @ 82°F

    Average Expanded Diameter: 0.8630 ± 0.0005 inch
    Recovered Weight: 172.9 grains
    Impact Velocity: 1,006 fps

    Name:  1.jpg
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    Name:  2.jpg
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    Predictive Analysis:

    Q-model
    DoP: 6.62 inches
    Wound Volume: 3.17 cubic inches
    Wound Mass: 1.91 ounces

    mTHOR model
    DoP: 7.04 inches
    Wound Volume: 3.37 cubic inches
    Wound Mass: 2.03 ounces

    DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in 10% ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
    Wound Volume = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
    Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel

    The Winchester .45 ACP 185-grain Silvertip JHP, known for being a very fragile JHP design that expands very aggressively and tends to shed mass through fragmentation, didn't fail to live up to its reputation in this terminal ballistic water test. The averaged (Q-model and mTHOR model) predicted terminal penetration is very shallow at ≈6¾'' which becomes a concern if this round has to pass through an upraised forearm or bicep or an angled target presentation on the way to striking the COM of an assailant. Of course, terminal ballistic performance like this is exactly what lead the F.B.I. (and other U.S. law-enforcement agencies) to re-examine their ammunition selection after the events of 11th April 1986, and ultimately to the place we are now with service-caliber JHP designs that offer moderate expansion and consistent penetration that routinely meets the 12 - 18 inches of penetration depth recommended by the F.B.I. test protocols. For the sake of comparison, the McPherson WTI model predicts a maximum terminal penetration depth of 6.52’’ and a total wound mass of 1.88 oz.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection.

  6. #96
    Federal Premium .45 ACP 230 gr. HST JHP (P45HST2)

    Date: 25th July 2021
    Temperature: 89°F
    Relative Humidity: 66%

    Test Firearm: unmodified HK45, .45 ACP
    Barrel Length: 4.41 inches
    Barrier: 16-ounce cotton denim, four layers, IWBA standard failure test
    Range: 21 feet
    Test Medium: H2O @ 82°F

    Average Expanded Diameter: 0.7482 ± 0.0005 inch
    Recovered Weight: 229.6 grains
    Impact Velocity: 909 fps

    Name:  Federal 230-gr HST HK45 4LD.jpg
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    Name:  Federal 230HST HK45 909 4LD Reverse.jpg
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    Predictive Analysis:

    Q-model
    DoP: 11.25 inches
    Wound Volume: 4.05 cubic inches
    Wound Mass: 2.44 ounces

    mTHOR model
    DoP: 11.54 inches
    Wound Volume: 4.16 cubic inches
    Wound Mass: 2.50 ounces

    DoP = predicted maximum depth of penetration in 10% ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
    Wound Volume = total volume of the entire wound channel
    Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel

    This water test was conducted using an unmodified Heckler & Koch HK45 pistol. Worth noting is that the Federal HST is an unbonded design evidenced by the lack of jacket adhesion to the lead alloy core (in the image of the reverse side of the expanded JHP). After passing through four layers of 16-ounce/yd² denim, the Federal 230-grain HST behaves as expected offering penetration approaching 12 inches with robust expansion and minimal lass of pre-impact mass. In comparison for this water test, the McPherson WTI model predicts a maximum terminal penetration depth of 11.69 ± 1.00’’ with a corresponding wound mass of 2.32 oz.
    Last edited by Nephrology; 08-16-2021 at 10:07 PM. Reason: Grammar Nazi
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection.

  7. #97
    THE THIRST MUTILATOR Nephrology's Avatar
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    Hate to be that guy but it's H2O, not H2O

  8. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by Nephrology View Post
    Hate to be that guy but it's H2O, not H2O
    Yes, I realize that. As you can see, I have correctly formatted H2O in several prior posts on this page and prior pages.

    Being human and just as capable of error as any other, I must've hit the wrong format button when posting. I have no ability to edit the post now.

    Perhaps you could help out rather than "being that guy"?

    ETA: I see that you took pity on me. Thanks! That was very kind of you!

    I have to admit to having asked BBI to delete an entire thread not so long ago because I made an algebraic error (it was the ''Simple closed-form extensions of the Alekseevskii-Tate equation for rigid penetrators'' thread) that threw the whole thing sideways. So, rather than trying to explain to him what and how to correct the original post, I asked to give it the axe so I could try again.
    Last edited by the Schwartz; 08-16-2021 at 10:29 PM.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection.

  9. #99

    Federal 9mm 124-grain JHP +P HST (P9HST3)

    Federal 9mm 124-grain JHP +P HST (P9HST3)

    Date: 25th July 2021
    Temperature: 89°F
    Relative Humidity: 66%

    Test Firearm: unmodified Heckler & Koch P30SK; 9x19mm
    Barrel Length: 3.30 inches
    Barrier: 4 layers of 16-ounce cotton denim, IWBA standard barrier
    Range: 21 feet
    Test Medium: H2O @ 82°F

    Average Expanded Diameter: 0.5599 ± 0.0005 inch
    Recovered Weight: 124.1 grains
    Impact Velocity: 1,188 fps

    Name:  Federal HST HK P30SK 124+P 9mm 124 @ 1118 4LD, front.jpg
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    Name:  Federal HST HK P30SK 124+P 9mm 124 @ 1118 4LD, reverse.jpg
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    Predictive Analysis:

    Q-model
    DoP: 13.84 inches
    Wound Volume: 2.79 cubic inches
    Wound Mass: 1.68 ounces

    mTHOR model
    DoP: 13.57 inches
    Wound Volume: 2.74 cubic inches
    Wound Mass: 1.65 ounces

    Not surprisingly, even from a very short barrel (3.3 inches), the Federal 9mm 124-grain JHP +P HST (P9HST3) performed well against the IWBA standard barrier of 4 layers of 16-ounce cotton denim.

    DoP = maximum depth of penetration in 10% ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
    Wound Volume = total volume of the entire wound channel
    Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
    Last edited by the Schwartz; 08-21-2021 at 06:30 PM.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection.

  10. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by the Schwartz View Post
    Yes, I realize that. As you can see, I have correctly formatted H2O in several prior posts on this page and prior pages.

    Being human and just as capable of error as any other, I must've hit the wrong format button when posting. I have no ability to edit the post now.

    Perhaps you could help out rather than "being that guy"?

    ETA: I see that you took pity on me. Thanks! That was very kind of you!

    I have to admit to having asked BBI to delete an entire thread not so long ago because I made an algebraic error (it was the ''Simple closed-form extensions of the Alekseevskii-Tate equation for rigid penetrators'' thread) that threw the whole thing sideways. So, rather than trying to explain to him what and how to correct the original post, I asked to give it the axe so I could try again.
    Open admissions of human error and corrections lend a sense of credibility in my book. Quite frankly, it is normal. It is part of the regular work process.

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