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Thread: Predictive tests in water

  1. #31
    Winchester USA 9mm 115 gr. JHP (USA9JHP)

    Average Recovered Diameter: 0.551 inch
    Recovered Weight: 115 gr.
    Impact Velocity: 1,172 fps

    Test Firearm: unmodified Glock 17 with a 4.49-inch barrel
    Test Range: 3 meters (~10 feet)
    Test Medium: H2O @ ~75 Fahrenheit
    Barrier: 1 layer of 1.67-ounce (heavy-weight) cotton T-shirt fabric

    Frontal Expansion Face:
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    Predictive Analysis:

    Q-model
    DoP: 13.174 inches
    Wound Mass: 1.547 ounces
    Wound Volume: 2.573 cubic inches

    mTHOR
    DoP: 12.859 inches
    Wound Mass: 1.510 ounces
    Wound Volume: 2.512 cubic inches

    Probability of Incapacitation:
    1st shot P[I/H]: 71.51%
    2nd shot P[I/H]: 91.88%
    3rd shot P[I/H]: 97.69%
    ΔE15 : -244.620 fpe

    DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
    Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
    P[I/H] = probability of incapacitation per random projectile strike to assailant's torso/abdomen: 30-second Assault modality, (Dziemian US Army BRL P[I/H] model)
    ΔE15 = amount of kinetic energy, in fpe, expended by the bullet from a penetration depth of 1 through 15 centimeters

    I include a test of this Winchester USA 9mm 115 gr. JHP simply because it performs surprisingly well. With an average predicted penetration depth of 13.017 inches, it produces just enough predicted penetration to meet the 12-inch penetration minimum requirement suggested by the F.B.I. test protocol and produces approximately 1.529 ounces (or 43.346 grams) of damaged tissue over that same distance. Although my personal preference does run towards higher sectional density options regardless of the caliber being used, this is an option that I would carry under most conditions without concern. I do have a small supply laid up against 'bad days', which says a lot about what I think of this load.
    Last edited by the Schwartz; 08-18-2018 at 12:05 PM.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection. www.quantitativeammunitionselection.com

  2. #32
    Winchester USA .45ACP 230-grain JHP (USA45JHP)

    Expanded Diameter: 0.735 inch
    Recovered Weight: 229.2 gr. (99.65% retained weight)
    Impact Velocity: 865 fps

    Test Firearm: unmodified HK USP45 with a 4.41-inch barrel
    Test Range: 3 meters (~10 feet)
    Test Medium: H2O @ ~75 Fahrenheit
    Barrier: 2 layers of 1.67-ounce T-shirt fabric

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    Predictive Analysis:

    Q-model
    DoP: 11.269 inches
    Wound Mass: 2.355 ounces
    Wound Volume: 3.917 cubic inches

    mTHOR
    DoP: 11.504 inches
    Wound Mass: 2.404 ounces
    Wound Volume: 3.999 cubic inches

    Probability of Incapacitation:
    1st-shot P[I/H]: 72.75%
    2nd-shot P[I/H]: 92.57%
    3rd-shot P[I/H]: 97.98%
    ΔE15 : -266.493 fpe

    DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
    Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
    P[I/H] = probability of incapacitation per random projectile strike to assailant's torso/abdomen: 30-second Assault modality, (Dziemian US Army BRL P[I/H] model)
    ΔE15 = amount of kinetic energy, in fpe, expended by the bullet from a penetration depth of 1 through 15 centimeters

    The average predicted penetration of 11.387 inches for the Winchester USA .45ACP 230-grain JHP, which used to be part of Winchester's Super-X ammunition line, is just shy of the F.B.I. test protocol recommended minimum penetration depth of 12 inches. Expanding robustly upon impact to ~1.625x its initial diameter and with terminal penetration approaching 12 inches, this JHP is capable of destroying nearly 2.4 ounces of soft tissue per strike with the entirety of that damage occurring within the typical human body assuming that the expanded Winchester USA .45ACP 230-grain JHP remains within an assailant's body. Weight measurements of the recovered test projectile were obtained using an RCBS Model 505 magnetically-dampened reloading scale. The test projectile's jacket and core remained together throughout the entire penetration event.
    Last edited by the Schwartz; 08-19-2018 at 01:23 PM.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection. www.quantitativeammunitionselection.com

  3. #33
    While surfing the 'net this afternoon, I stumbled across a Shooting Times article written by Allan Jones in 2011-

    http://www.shootingtimes.com/ammo/am...btests_200807/

    -that contained a table with a small amount of exit velocity data for .38 Special LRN, LSWC and JHP projectiles after passing through a 15 centimeter-long block of 20% concentration ordnance gelatin.

    Since none of the expansion values for the JHPs were included in the article or the table, I was limited to a 'quick-and-dirty' comparison limited to the LRN (2) and LSWC (2) data in order to examine how the Q-model predictions (which are included on the table in red) for the 15-centimeter exit velocities compares with Jones' test data:

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    I really wish that Jones would have recorded the expansion dimensions for the JHPs and used 10% ordnance gelatin instead of the 20% gelatin, but there is little that I can do about that. Fortunately, the Q-model allows for the use/substitution of the correct material properties (mass density, strength) of 20% gelatin.

    For such a small sample (n = 4), the results are encouraging.
    Last edited by the Schwartz; 08-19-2018 at 04:25 PM.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection. www.quantitativeammunitionselection.com

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Schwartz View Post
    While surfing the 'net this afternoon, I stumbled across a Shooting Times article written by Allan Jones in 2011-

    http://www.shootingtimes.com/ammo/am...btests_200807/

    -that contained a table with a small amount of exit velocity data for .38 Special LRN, LSWC and JHP projectiles after passing through a 15 centimeter-long block of 20% concentration ordnance gelatin.

    Since none of the expansion values for the JHPs were included in the article or the table, I was limited to a 'quick-and-dirty' comparison limited to the LRN (2) and LSWC (2) data in order to examine how the Q-model predictions (which are included on the table in red) for the 15-centimeter exit velocities compares with Jones' test data:

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    I really wish that Jones would have recorded the expansion dimensions for the JHPs and used 10% ordnance gelatin instead of the 20% gelatin, but there is little that I can do about that. Fortunately, the Q-model allows for the use/substitution of the correct material properties (mass density, strength) of 20% gelatin.

    For such a small sample (n = 4), the results are encouraging.
    I knew Allan Jones when he was at the Dallas County Crime Lab (more properly, the Southwest Institute of Forensic Sciences - SWIFS) and was in frequent contact with him back in the late 70s and the 80s. His research was eye opening for those days and it led to the understanding of how adequate penetration and decent expansion of service ammo was so important. His findings directly contradicted the effectiveness of the lightweight JHPs, finding they didn't penetrate far enough in very common non-frontal shots present in police work. The area provided lots of OIS data to confirm his findings and SWIFS even published a list of recommended loads, much like DocGKR has done for years.

    Allan now writes a monthly column in Shooting Times on various ballistic topics that's always a good read.
    Regional Government Sales Manager for Aimpoint, Inc. USA
    Co-owner Hardwired Tactical Shooting (HiTS)

  5. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by the Schwartz View Post
    Winchester USA .45ACP 230-grain JHP (USA45JHP)

    Expanded Diameter: 0.735 inch
    Recovered Weight: 229.2 gr. (99.65% retained weight)
    Impact Velocity: 865 fps

    Test Firearm: unmodified HK USP45 with a 4.41-inch barrel
    Test Range: 3 meters (~10 feet)
    Test Medium: H2O @ ~75 Fahrenheit
    Barrier: 2 layers of 1.67-ounce T-shirt fabric

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    Predictive Analysis:

    Q-model
    DoP: 11.269 inches
    Wound Mass: 2.355 ounces
    Wound Volume: 3.917 cubic inches

    mTHOR
    DoP: 11.504 inches
    Wound Mass: 2.404 ounces
    Wound Volume: 3.999 cubic inches

    Probability of Incapacitation:
    1st-shot P[I/H]: 72.75%
    2nd-shot P[I/H]: 92.57%
    3rd-shot P[I/H]: 97.98%
    ΔE15 : -266.493 fpe

    DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
    Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
    P[I/H] = probability of incapacitation per random projectile strike to assailant's torso/abdomen: 30-second Assault modality, (Dziemian US Army BRL P[I/H] model)
    ΔE15 = amount of kinetic energy, in fpe, expended by the bullet from a penetration depth of 1 through 15 centimeters

    The average predicted penetration of 11.387 inches for the Winchester USA .45ACP 230-grain JHP, which used to be part of Winchester's Super-X[emoji768] ammunition line, is just shy of the F.B.I. test protocol recommended minimum penetration depth of 12 inches. Expanding robustly upon impact to ~1.625x its initial diameter and with terminal penetration approaching 12 inches, this JHP is capable of destroying nearly 2.4 ounces of soft tissue per strike with the entirety of that damage occurring within the typical human body assuming that the expanded Winchester USA .45ACP 230-grain JHP remains within an assailant's body. Weight measurements of the recovered test projectile were obtained using an RCBS Model 505 magnetically-dampened reloading scale. The test projectile's jacket and core remained together throughout the entire penetration event.
    Can you post some data on the loads on DocGKRs list?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne Dobbs View Post
    I knew Allan Jones when he was at the Dallas County Crime Lab (more properly, the Southwest Institute of Forensic Sciences - SWIFS) and was in frequent contact with him back in the late 70s and the 80s. His research was eye opening for those days and it led to the understanding of how adequate penetration and decent expansion of service ammo was so important. His findings directly contradicted the effectiveness of the lightweight JHPs, finding they didn't penetrate far enough in very common non-frontal shots present in police work. The area provided lots of OIS data to confirm his findings and SWIFS even published a list of recommended loads, much like DocGKR has done for years.

    Allan now writes a monthly column in Shooting Times on various ballistic topics that's always a good read.
    I have read quite a few of Jones' articles (mostly these last few days) and like his work a lot. Seems as if he was tapped into the BRL P[I/H] models, too. In fact, one of his latest articles on dangerous game bullets (March 2017) brought back a memory from early September 2002 when I was on safari in Tanzania for the first time which probably marks the genesis of my obsession with all things 'terminal ballistic'. After downing several trophies (without relying on my PH for any assistance) over the course of my first week on the savanna, we got into a lengthy discussion one evening as we sat by the fire pit about the benefits/advantages of monolithics (my point was that they 'up-calibered' the rifle due to their performance) and I debated that with the ammunition that I was using in my medium rifle (a Winchester 70 'Stainless Classic' chambered in .30-06 and loaded with the then-relatively-new 180-grain FailSafes) that I could bring down a cape buffalo authoritatively and that the bullets, if fired through the length of the animal (head-to-tail or tail-to-head), would pass through and exit even a sizeable dugga boy.

    The following morning, as I brought my Winchester 70 'Stainless Classic' chambered in .375 H&H to go out for the second of two cape buffalo, he sent me back to my tent to retrieve my .30-06. I returned with it, confused, and asked why he had had me get my .30-06 knowing full-well that we were going out after buffalo that morning. My PH indicated that he'd obtained permission (I have no idea how he was able to do that) from the conservation enforcement officer accompanying us to use the .30-06 to settle the debate. To make keep a long story as mercifully short as possible, after we made a little wager (though I'll not say for how much) on whether or not the Winchester .30-06 180-grain FailSafes would completely penetrate a cape buffalo lengthwise, with me asserting that they would and my PH insisting that they would not do so, we hit the mopane in the concession area and ultimately we were able to ''engineer'' a shot, at a range of about 75 yards, that allowed me to make the 3 shots necessary to settle it once and for all. Three rounds, all of which found their marks, and about 90 seconds later, the buffalo was down for keeps and we had two 'data points' which proved me wrong (not for the first time I might add!) that allowed us to recover two expanded Winchester .30-06 180-grain FailSafe HPs from the interior wall (ribs) of the ascending ribs behind the buffalo's brisket. I did break out an inexpensive tape measure that I used to measure penetration depth of both rounds and made a note of the penetration depth while the (extremely patient) skinners and trackers went about the business of field dressing and preparing the buffalo for transport back to camp.

    Here are a few images taken right afterwards:

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    The two recovered (expanded) .30-06 180-grain FailSafes lost a significant portion of their noses and measured:

    #1
    Average Recovered Diameter: 0.405''
    Recovered Weight: 149.9 grains (83.28% retained weight)
    Estimated Impact Velocity: ~2,550 fps
    Actual Penetration Depth: 47.5 0.50 inches

    Q-model Penetration Depth Prediction: 49.066 inches

    #2
    Average Recovered Diameter: 0.407''
    Recovered Weight: 148.1 grains (82.28% retained weight)
    Estimated Impact Velocity: ~2,550 fps
    Actual Penetration Depth: 49.0 0.50 inches

    Q-model Penetration Depth Prediction: 47.97 inches

    Using the estimated velocity of 2,550 fps for the 75-yard range at which those shots were taken, it is pleasing to see (at least to me) that the Q-model does a good job even beyond its design limitation of 1,650 fps.

    Without realizing it then, this-

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    -is the picture of that same cape buffalo that would eventually adorn the cover of the book.
    Last edited by the Schwartz; 08-19-2018 at 11:05 PM.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection. www.quantitativeammunitionselection.com

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Sigfan26 View Post
    Can you post some data on the loads on DocGKRs list?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


    Sure. I have some free time in the next few weeks and should be able to sneak a few tests in.

    Since I do not own pistols in .40 S&W I don't have the immediate ability to run water tests in that caliber, but I can run a few test shots in 9mm and .45ACP.

    What are you interested in seeing? I'll try to scare up something along the lines of what you wish to see.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection. www.quantitativeammunitionselection.com

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by the Schwartz View Post
    Sure. I have some free time in the next few weeks and should be able to sneak a few tests in.

    Since I do not own pistols in .40 S&W I don't have the immediate ability to run water tests in that caliber, but I can run a few test shots in 9mm and .45ACP.

    What are you interested in seeing? I'll try to scare up something along the lines of what you wish to see.
    Any of them, really.

  9. #39

    Another part of the correlative picture...

    Here is another example of how the Q-model and mTHOR model correlate with not only converting water test data into predicted terminal ballistic performance in 10% ordnance gelatin, but also how they correlate with actual 10% gelatin test data like this:



    Comparing the gelatin-derived test data-

    12 Gauge Remington ''Slugger'', 2" 1-ounce rifled slug (#20300) vs. 10% gelatin (Brassfetcher)
    Expanded Diameter = 1.168 inch
    Projectile Mass = 437.5 grains
    Impact Velocity = 1,595 fps
    Distance to target = 10 feet

    Maximum Penetration Depth = 12.50 inches

    -to the predictive yields of the Q-model and mTHOR model, it is easy to see how both models correlate to independent gelatin-derived test data.

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    Q-model
    DoP: 11.543 inches
    Wound Mass: 6.091 ounces
    Wound Volume: 10.131 cubic inches

    mTHOR
    DoP: 13.676 inches
    Wound Mass: 7.216 ounces
    Wound Volume: 12.003 cubic inches

    Cumulative Probability of Incapacitation, 1st-shot and cumulative binomial P[I/H] values
    1st-shot P[I/H]: 91.36%
    2nd-shot P[I/H]: 99.25%
    3rd-shot P[I/H]: 99.94%
    ΔE15: -1,816.617 fpe

    DoP = maximum equivalent depth of penetration in calibrated 10% ordnance gelatin (or soft tissue)
    Wound Mass = total weight of tissue damaged/destroyed within the entire wound channel
    Wound Volume = volume of the entire wound channel
    P[I/H] = probability of incapacitation per random munition strike to combatant's torso/abdomen: Assault, 30-second time-frame (US Army BRL P[I/H] model, Dziemian, 1960)
    ΔE15 = Amount of kinetic energy (in fpe) expended by the bullet from a penetration depth of 1 through 15 centimeters
    Last edited by the Schwartz; 08-20-2018 at 02:17 PM.
    ''Politics is for the present, but an equation is for eternity.'' ―Albert Einstein

    Full disclosure per the Pistol-Forum CoC: I am the author of Quantitative Ammunition Selection. www.quantitativeammunitionselection.com

  10. #40
    Site Supporter DocGKR's Avatar
    Join Date
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    Location
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    I apologize for the tardy response--with the new Residents starting on 01 July, a high intensity time consuming work effort doing "dentistry" at the hospital 12-18 hours per day the past few months (such as the procedure illustrated below), and a variety of other factors going on which have required close attention to my family, I have had very little free time to devote to outside pursuits.

    In the next couple of posts, I will try to offer the ground work for how we have come to the current state in wound ballistic understanding.

    Note that the text and commentary in the following posts below remain my intellectual property.
    Last edited by DocGKR; 10-31-2018 at 08:20 PM.
    Facts matter...Feelings Can Lie

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