TCinVA on Ballistic Radio

[chl442]

First, I want to say that this is one of the better BR episodes I've listened to, particularly because there's been little JJ talking and few (although never no) leading questions from the host(s), and the guest was well-spoken and offered relevant information.




Having done quite a few deep dives myself, and having arrived at quite the opposite conclusion, I'm interested to hear how you've arrived at this.

I'm sure many will think this is disingenuous trolling on my part, but I assure you it's a legitimate question.

Just taking a quick Google, for example...

https://www.creditdonkey.com/home-in...tatistics.html
1 million home burglaries with occupants present, and 27% (270,000) of those becoming the victim of a violent crime


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...lds-in-the-us/
126,220,000 households in the US, so .80% of homes are burglarized while occupied, and 0.2% of homes burglarized where the resident becomes a victim, or 270,000 homes total

https://www.quora.com/How-many-peopl...ons-every-year
Simple assault (15% or 155,400)
Robbery (7% 72,520)
leaving 42,000 unaccounted for, but "rape (3% 31,080)", so really 11,000 remaining from which some number are presumably killed


I readily admit that this number was higher than even I would have expected, but not terribly much so, and certainly not "extremely common".

There is also, from this data, no real way of differentiating "normal folks" from those that are living risky lifestyles involving other illegal activity such as one of the occupants or visitors being involved in drugs or gangs, for example.



it *is* however far more victims than drowning in pools (a common point of comparison in the pro-gun argument)
https://www.edgarsnyder.com/swimming...tatistics.html
"3,536 people died from drowning annually from 2005 to 2014"
of course this is death, and I don't have the statistic for number of home invasions that resulted in the death of the occupants, only the 11,000 victims from which we don't know their victimhood


As additional reference for comparison...
https://www.asecurelife.com/home-accident-statistics/
Falls are the leading cause of home injury deaths with nearly 6,000 lives claimed per year
The second leading cause of home injury death is poisoning. It

You really must be lost......

[chl442]

This really isn’t the fuck-with-rob_s thread. I know that lots of people have a problem with him, but this isn’t the place to confront him about it. If you really want to start a thread in GD to hash things out in a substantive way, feel free to do so. If not, baiting comments such as this would probably be better posted in the PFestivus thread in about 40 days.

Funny. I'm pretty sure I didn't ask you to step into the middle of this

[BehindBlueI's]

Funny. I'm pretty sure I didn't ask you to step into the middle of this

The funny thing about being the owner of any given place is you don't have to wait for anyone to ask you.

[Guerrero]

That’s not the way things work around here. Have a nice weekend!

The mods are shit

[BehindBlueI's]

That means in any given year, you have a 99.4% chance to not be a victim

No, you don't. Risk isn't remotely evenly distributed. If I'm a 19 year old black male low on the totem pole of a criminal gang, if I'm a 25 year old hispanic female living in a shit-hole apartment building coming home from my waitress shift at 3am, or I'm a 40 year old white male living in Suburbia and never venturing out when the sun is down dramatically changes my chances.

BA, who's now dead due to roughly 15 rounds of 7.62 through his torso, was the victim of shootings roughly every 3 years over a 12 year period until someone got it done. That's just ones he had to go the hospital for and actually reported, who knows how many times he was missed and it was just a 'shots fired' run with everyone GOA or not even that. He was on the losing side of a turf war vs the S family.

Look at the numbers of violent crime (assault, murder, burglary, rape, robbery, kidnapping) annually, versus the population.

See above. Everyone's risk assessment is not the same. Large conglomerations of numbers aren't any given person's reality.

I have.

And then I've filtered for age, race, and delved into the "victims" and their record of participation in crime themselves. For example, the newspaper in Baltimore was (is?) publishing the name of every murder "victim" daily. I started down the list and spent several hours looking up their names in the clerk of courts and was hard pressed to find anyone without an extensive arrest record.

This is largely true for murders that are meant to be murders. Less true for robberies, or robberies that turn in to murders. Occupational and geographical concerns start to come to the forefront. Live in the suburbs? Good. Live in the suburbs near a bus stop? Less good. Live in a suburbs with a bus stop and quick access to the highway? Even more less good. The worst place to live is in a "transitional" area, obviously wealthier areas within bicycling distance of the 'hood. With "urban revival" and the like this is happening more and more in larger cities.

There are 89 confirmed Murders in my county this year so far. We normally end up at 130+. There is *one* this year within 8 miles of my house. That one was an elderly man beaten to death in a home invasion robbery, a "true victim" and apparently random. Why? Low risk population engaged in low risk activities with nothing that draws high risk populations and no easy access to major arteries or mass transit.

In short, trying to determine your risk from overall population statistics is a useless endeavor unless you just like the academic challenge of playing with numbers. You need to know your individual risk assessment (well, *need* is a strong word, but if you want something realistic to you this is where you'd start). My risk is higher than my neighbor's risk because I have the added risk that comes with being an LEO, of having received specific and credible death threats in the past, etc. A woman who moved back in with her parents and used to live across the street had a different risk due to the restraining order she had against her ex-, a known violent criminal.

[RJ]

I listened to this at the gym this morning.

Hearing the story of the Petit murders again was disturbing. I first heard it at Mr. Givens class last year. I did not enjoy it.

And yet I needed to hear it, to reinforce the idea that among us, walk the same kind of people, the same depraved psychopaths who commit such crimes.

Thanks @TCinVA.

[Sherman A. House DDS]

I also think there’s an intangible here nobody mentions...and that’s the sentinel event that no statistics can predict.

The area I live in is very affluent, zero crime essentially, and we recently had a drive-by shooting into one of the bar/grille retail areas at the street level.

The area I police in has had two active shooters...again, difficult to predict. And no statistic would’ve given any inkling of such.

In the case Tim describes in the broadcast, as well as many of the incidents Tom describes that his students have experienced, were also sentinel events...no precursor information would have predicted them!

So as much as I’d like to hang my hat on statistics, it’s a house built on sand. According to stats, I should see 4 fascial space infections in my career (google it at your own risk)...I saw and treated four in my first TWO WEEKS. I treat 4-6 per year now. Different circumstances, granted, but it illustrates my point. Weird things happen, and no amount of math will predict them with a high degree of certainty. Human biology, physiology and psychology are incredibly odd, random areas of study.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[holmes168]

What I’d be curious about is what anyone does for pattern analysis of crime near their homes, where the work, etc. Is the anybody who keeps track of the crime data that can affect them on a daily basis? I pop on crime mapping dot com occasionally, but I’ve not done a ton of analysis or record keeping.
Plenty of experience in the past with pattern analysis is Iraq- it’s not hard, just don’t know if it’s worth or if a member here has any TTP’s.

[Jay Cunningham]

Funny. I'm pretty sure I didn't ask you to step into the middle of this

You’re completely out of line.

[Jay Cunningham]

I thought Rob’s post was a very good series of questions. I also thought Tom Givens and Tim Chandler gave great replies.

Overall, very informative.