I'm not sure how he exaggerates health care consumption. Can you elaborate on that, as I'm not sure what you mean? That because the elderly spend more on healthcare it will make it look like younger people are poor? That elderly poor don't count as poor? That out of pocket health care expenses won't contribute to poverty?
Ok, so are you now saying poverty *has* declined or are you still going with it's remained static? And, again, I'd like to know how Sullian's data is based so much on Medicare. If it is, it's a pretty solid indicator that the program has greatly reduced poverty...
It does not for two reasons. One, it gives specific subsets that would be higher. One of which is the elderly, who you above say taint the data to make it look more effective because of Medicare... Two, it's higher than the census poverty rate, not 1963 poverty rates, which I thought you now agree with based on your acknowledgement of a downward trend over the past 50 years but you don't agree with it?
Note all lines trend down, but some are lower than others based on the measurement. Again, I'm confused by your argument.
Let's stick with Sullivan, though. From his actual paper:
His paper also acknowledges there are better ways to actually measure poverty but they rely heavily on self-reporting, which is notoriously inaccurate. So, he's not pretending his equation is the end-all-be-all, but simply a better way and way that's viable based on data that can be reasonably assumed to be accurate.
All of which, to me, further argues for a UBI instead of the patchwork of current programs. It's difficult to track and verify who should be eligible. With a UBI there's no incentive to fake a disability, to lie about savings in the bank, to exaggerate your rent, to work under the table (for this purpose, lying for tax purposes would remain a motive), etc.