Universal Basic Income (California...of course...)

[Jaywalker]

You seem to be confusing conservatives with Republicans or your average Trump voter. ...Republicans and your average Trump voter will be demanding to keep the status quo. Conservative and classic libertarians want nothing of that discussion.

It appears to me that you might have missed a step here.

Gallup’s most recent weekly survey, conducted from Feb. 5 to 11, showed President Trump’s job approval rating among self-identified Republicans at 86 percent. It was the third straight week that his rating was above 85 percent — an improvement compared with 2017. Trump’s support among Republicans spent much of last year in the low 80s, even dipping into the 70s at times.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...home-to-trump/


From this I conclude the average self-identified Republican is a Trump supporter, per this, and Breitbart agrees. (Not cited)

If you're talking about non-Republican conservatives, then you might be right, who knows? According to Gallup, 26% of population self-identifies as Republican, so by extension 85% of Republicans 26% is 22% of Republicans in the population approve of President Trump. I understand President Trump's approval hovers around 40% of the population so about 18% of the rest of the population also approve. Presidential elections are 50/50, Republican/Democrat, or near enough, so I'm having trouble determining where you find a block of non-Trump conservatives of significant enough size to matter - it looks like 10% of the population, max, to me.

[Sensei]

It appears to me that you might have missed a step here. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...home-to-trump/


From this I conclude the average self-identified Republican is a Trump supporter, per this, and Breitbart agrees. (Not cited)

If you're talking about non-Republican conservatives, then you might be right, who knows? According to Gallup, 26% of population self-identifies as Republican, so by extension 85% of Republicans 26% is 22% of Republicans in the population approve of President Trump. I understand President Trump's approval hovers around 40% of the population so about 18% of the rest of the population also approve. Presidential elections are 50/50, Republican/Democrat, or near enough, so I'm having trouble determining where you find a block of non-Trump conservatives of significant enough size to matter - it looks like 10% of the population, max, to me.

Well, there are only 32 million members of the Republican Party and 250 million adults, so I suppose that self-identifying as a Republican is much different than actually being a Republican (26% of 250 million is 70 million). Also, job approval ratings are a snapshot in time. In other words, I agree with Trumps handling of North Korea this weak, but I don’t see myself voting for him in 2020.

There are a number of “Goldwater” conservatives that have largely caucused with the Republican Party for the past 50 years; occasionally they caucus with the Libertarian Party when they don’t nominate a clown. All said, it’s about 15-20% of the GOP’s core 32 million voters and elected officials who are actual conservatives and are represented by guys like Mike Lee, Ben Sasse, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz. The rest of the GOP is comprised of progressives/moderates (Bush or McCain), and nationalists (Trump). Historically, conservatives were significant in the GOP because only half the adult population votes in national elections and half of that votes in primaries and midterms. As you pointed out, our significance has declined as progressives and nationalists have ascended in the GOP, but that does not mean that we are in ideological agreement with GOPs position on core issues such as spending, taxes, trade, healthcare, etc.

Further confusing the issue is that many conservative voters held their nose and voted for Trump in 2016 because the alternative was so abhorrent. They should not be confused with the MAGA crowd and I would not bank on their support in the midterms or in 2020 unless the Dems do something really stupid like nominate Sanders or Warren.

Finally, Andrew Breitbart died 6 years ago and he gave a stark warning about electing Trump. The website that carries his name now is a propaganda joke.

[Joe in PNG]

Further confusing the issue is that many conservative voters held their nose and voted for Trump in 2016 because the alternative was so abhorrent.

There's a Uuuuge difference between "Trump Supporter", and "Republican who happened to vote for Trump because Hillary".
Some of the latter are even pleasantly surprised that the Trump Presidency hasn't been the utter and total dumpster fire they predicted.

I would not bank on their support in the midterms or in 2020 unless the Dems do something really stupid like nominate Sanders or Warren.

It's the Democrats. It's probably going to either be the usual bland mid-term party hack ala Kerry, or it's going to be an abhorrent, appeals-only-to-the-base radical ala McGovern or Hillary.

[Sensei]

There's a Uuuuge difference between "Trump Supporter", and "Republican who happened to vote for Trump because Hillary".
Some of the latter are even pleasantly surprised that the Trump Presidency hasn't been the utter and total dumpster fire they predicted.

I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve agreed with Trump’s actual policies far more than I thought I would. However, he is so far living down to my worst misgivings on the issue that I care most about - spending. The fact that we have a “Republican” President signing off on spending to the tune of $900 billion in new debt is unforgivable. This party is dead to me - fucking worse than Obama.

As for who the Dems will nominate, it would not surprise me if they go with someone having Billionaire rock-star appeal.

[RoyGBiv]

The Dems will be running Corey Booker or Kamala Harris in 2020.

[wvincent]

The Dems will be running Corey Booker or Kamala Harris in 2020.

Harris? Oh yeah, she is certainly a rising star in her party. But Booker? Not quite sure who his rhetoric resounds with.

[Kyle Reese]

I predict a Keith Ellison / Elizabeth Warren run in 2020.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

[JohnO]

Well if we are predicting. (couldn't resist the urge to post it)