May 6, 2018: Most Russians, especially those of military age, are reluctant to serve in the military and very much against “foreign military adventures” even if they are not likely to be sent to a combat zone. The government already acknowledges that by minimizing the number of Russian troops sent to Syria or Donbas and keeping military casualties low.
The February incident in Syria where over 200 Russian military contractors died when they tried to seize a small base in eastern Syria containing American troops did not trigger calls for revenge among Russians. Instead the attitude was that these guys took a chance to make a lot of money and it didn’t w0rk out. There are a lot of dangerous jobs in Russia that pay well to compensate for the risk. Those who do that work are opportunists, not patriots. So the government has to go easy in Ukraine and Syria. Israel seems more aware of this than most Middle Eastern powers. That is partly because Israel has a large Russian minority, courtesy of a lot of Russian Jews coming to Israel since the 1980s and keeping in touch with folks back home.
Another aftereffect of the 200 contractor deaths was Russia revealing how many Russian military personnel have served in Syria since mid-2015. It was 48,000, and that includes army, navy and air force. Not included are contractors, who are civilians, even if they took on some of the most dangerous jobs and suffered more casualties than the military personnel. Out of those 48,000 Russian military personnel who have been in Syria (some for less than a day, few for more than six months) only about 60 have died in combat so far. There have been half as many military contractors serving in Syria and they have suffered nearly 500 dead. No official numbers of military contractor fatalities have been released but Russian volunteer organizations have tried to keep track of the funerals or other indications of young men dying in Syria and it is clear that being a military contractor is a lot more dangerous. The point here is that there are still some Russians willing to take dangerous combat jobs but there are not enough them to maintain the million man military Russian leaders want.
For the Russian military all this indicates that military service is still very unpopular and even though most Russian military personnel are now volunteers (serving on contracts) the ability of the military to hold onto those contract soldiers is always weakened if there are a lot of casualties or too much chance of being sent to a combat zone. Conscription is in even worse shape, with the number of conscripts available declining each year. In April 2018 the Russian military only ended up with 128,000 conscripts during the semiannual draft call. This was the lowest since 2006, a year when there were more young men available as well as more deferments and rampant draft dodging. In the t2 years since then the deferments have declined, more draft dodgers have been punished severely but there are still fewer conscripts. There are simply fewer young men to conscript because of lower birth rates and more young men who are in poor physical shape or have become addicted to drugs or otherwise acquired a police record and more trouble than they are worth if conscripted anyway. All this was expected but since the 1990s Russia has been seeking solutions and finding none that work.
Originally Posted by willie
Reply With Quote