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Thread: Tracking UDs

  1. #1
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    Tracking UDs

    (UD = Unintended Discharge, just bypasses the semantic argument of AD vs ND)

    In the debate on the safety of various trigger systems it's become apparent that hard data is generally absent, made up, or deemed superfluous. There are certainly difficulties in tracking them, to include:

    1) Reported UDs are fairly rare and only the largest of departments has enough data points to be useful. If I only tracked my own (1600-ish sworn) department, I'd have less than 1 incident per year including training incidents. I could track 1600 officers for a decade and not have enough data to be useful.

    LASD did do a detailed study when their rates doubled after switching to the M&P striker fired pistol. Even with nearly 9500 sworn, they averaged less than 10 a year with the Beretta. (2004-2011).

    https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/d...rge+Report.pdf

    So with the switch in weapons, and the time spans required to get a relevant number of each, how do you also sift out training differences? If you look at 7 years of Beretta 92 vs M&P, that's a 14 year time span and training methods are not static. Especially once you double your rate of UDs, things other than the gun will change.


    So the need for a larger pool of potential UDs seems apparent. Last calendar year, I tracked all UDs resulting in injury or death in my county. I ended up with a total in the mid-80s for a population of roughly 1 million people. (Note people, not gun owners, obviously not every resident owns a gun and not every gun owner routinely handles their firearms).

    Why only incidents that result in injury or death? Because they are mandatory reporting for hospitals and my office investigates every incident of a person shot, intentional or not. Property damage incidents often go unreported, and if they are they are investigated at the district level (if at all). I only included incidents I could prove were unintended, and did not include some incidents that were very likely UDs but a story of a robbery or some such to explain it was offered and there was insufficient evidence to prove the lie. (Meaning there were very likely more than the 85-ish incidents)

    Initially I did this to see how many there were and if there was any trends in age/experience. I pretty quickly learned I could not track experience reliably (I had no way to verify any self reporting) and age was not necessarily related to experience.

    What I tracked was:
    1) age of shooter
    2) age of injured party (if other than shooter)
    3 relationship of shooter and injured party (self, family, friend, acquaintance, stranger)
    4) type of firearm (if known)
    5) circumstances and contributing factors
    6) Injury

    I was probably too specific in injuries. I should have broken them down by minor/serious/fatal in hind sight. It's much tougher to sort "GSW to left hand" "GSW to lower back" GSW to groin", etc.
    I considered tracking who had a handgun license, but as we don't need one on our own property it may not be representative of much. I did start tracking felons/prohibited but did not originally think to do so.

    I have presented some of the conclusions here and on another board (ie roughly 1/3 have the contributing factor of pulling the trigger to break down the gun, which was generally corroborated by witness testimony, no magazine in the gun, etc) and have pointed out the gaps in the data (we can know how many times revolvers are involved in a UD, but no idea how many man-hours of revolver handling there is per UD, etc.)

    So the point of this thread is to ask, what information would you like to see given the constraints I work under. I can only reliably track UDs resulting in injury or death. Any questions must be ethical for an investigating detective to ask, and to be reliable must be something verifiable. What am I missing and do you see any way to plug holes in the data?

    Note I did not track UDs this calendar year, I've had too many other projects going on. If this seems worthwhile, I will try to do the same tracking next year.

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    How about actions immediately prior? It would be interesting to know if there were interruptions to the unloading sequence. IME investigating a few of these, and almost being killed by an idiot with one, interruptions to the unloading can be a factor.
    Last edited by LSP552; 08-14-2017 at 05:20 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LSP552 View Post
    How about actions immediately prior? It would be interesting to know if there were interruptions to the unloading sequence. IME investigating a few of these, and almost being killed by an idiot with one, interruptions to the unloading can be a factor.
    I can try to gather that.

  4. #4
    I wonder if there is a correlation between training or lack of, to ud. And similarly, I wonder if the amount of range time correlates to ud.

    So, maybe how much training in the last year and how much range time?

    My guess would be, less training and less range time would have a increased chance of ud.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Phxcollier View Post
    I wonder if there is a correlation between training or lack of, to ud. And similarly, I wonder if the amount of range time correlates to ud.

    So, maybe how much training in the last year and how much range time?

    My guess would be, less training and less range time would have a increased chance of ud.
    I don't have any way to corroborate that and self-reporting is unreliable under the best of circumstances.

  6. #6
    I don't know if you are covering it in the circumstances and contributing factors section but if it was during holstering the type of holster and carry position or if the gun was being placed into or taken from storage what type of container/storage system.

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    Quote Originally Posted by octagon View Post
    I don't know if you are covering it in the circumstances and contributing factors section but if it was during holstering the type of holster and carry position or if the gun was being placed into or taken from storage what type of container/storage system.
    I do already gather as much of that as I can, although exact holster isn't always available. The user themselves often don't know and I'm not always able to determine it even if I can examine it. "POS Uncle Mike's look-alike" or "no holster pocket carry" is more the norm than actual brand/model, etc.

  8. #8
    Sure thing. Maybe just leather,nylon or kydex/polymer, and IWB,OWB strong side hip or AIWB kind of thing. Exact holster is asking a lot.

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    I don't know how hard it would be to do, but impairment from drugs/ alcohol seems to be relevant information.

    I know that in looking at studies of motorcycle accidents if you take out the riders who were impaired the rate of reported accidents with injuries or deaths decreases dramatically.

    eta: looks like this would probably be included in .5 circumstances/ and contributing factors.
    Last edited by Caballoflaco; 08-14-2017 at 08:57 PM.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by octagon View Post
    Sure thing. Maybe just leather,nylon or kydex/polymer, and IWB,OWB strong side hip or AIWB kind of thing. Exact holster is asking a lot.
    I can do that. I have that info in some, but not all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caballoflaco View Post
    I don't know how hard it would be to do, but impairment from drugs/ alcohol seems to be relevant information.

    I know that in looking at studies of motorcycle accidents if you take out the riders who were impaired the rate of reported accidents with injuries or deaths decreases dramatically.

    eta: looks like this would probably be included in .5 circumstances/ and contributing factors.
    Drunkenness appears less often than you'd think. I could make another column with a Y/N to make it easier to sort and tabulate, though.

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