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Thread: Survivorship Bias

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    FL

    Survivorship Bias

    I was recently reminded of this article from You Are Not So Smart about survivorship bias:

    https://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05...ivorship-bias/

    In summary, we commit the error of survivorship bias when we try to determine what we should do to succeed by examining examples of success, but at the same time neglect to consider examples of failure. In the context of defensive tactics, this would look like only studying successful gunfighters or scenarios that had a positive outcome while not studying fights in which the defender lost or had a negative outcome (as Claude Werner would say).

    So my question is, how do we examine defenders and fights in such a way that we learn what NOT to do as well as what we SHOULD do?

  2. #2
    I get what the bias is but what to do to avoid it doesn't seem that challenging. Look at all encounters and avoid the mistakes where there was a negative outcome and do the things where there was a positive outcome more often. The key seems to be not just looking at incidents,skills,technique or tactics where a person was successful but looking at as many good and bad incidents as possible. I think Jon Corria and ASP (Active Self Protection) does a pretty good job at this as do others.

    It is like taking a course from someone and not agreeing with everything taught. The key is to try everything in the class or training environment and use what works for you and as the situation dictates. Testing any and all areas of concern under the most realistic and varied conditions is critical to helping evaluate a skill or tactic.

  3. #3
    Site Supporter
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    the Deep South
    I think that gunfighting is a zero sum game in that for every winner there is a loser. However, individuals who consistently win offer a much better data set than individuals who consistently lose.

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