Lets leave M&P out of it since they were never really in the running for anything and pretty much unanimously rejected by LE, Sig already carved out their piece of the market with the 320 in the first 3 years and it will continue to grow, maybe enough that it becomes the dominant pistol for LE as well as the next M9 in 36 months or so, I applaud FN for taking a hard look at a pistol that failed to gain any significant market share in any segment in the FNS and trying to make it better, but I doubt the 509 will succeed anywhere the FNS did not, the trigger is still it's biggest handicap, especially when tested alongside the competition, I'm sure it will sell commercially in conservative numbers and a company like FN ensures it will stick around despite luke warm sales. That leaves the APX which I personally believe is the dark horse in the race thats coming from behind on the outside gaining speed as it goes.