God damn it Colt

[Maple Syrup Actual]

I saw that this morning and I was not exactly thrilled but serves me right for opening my mouth I guess.

And to be honest I suspect that the people I know involved in this are emotionally invested enough that it's hard to tell how far-reaching the changes are. They seem catastrophic if you're one of the people cut from the team I'm sure. The first description I got was salted earth; since then all kinds of different conflicting stuff came up ranging from "business as usual" to "major restructuring".

Checking in with people who should know this morning it definitely sounds less spectacular than first reports made out. Although again of course for people who did get laid off I'm sure it still feels like a major event.

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[rob_s]

Someone will be along soon to tell us it's the union's fault.

Almost as quickly as someone will be along to tell us they share no blame whatsoever.

I assume you're smart enough to know that I wasn't saying that it's all their fault, just as I assume you're smart enough to know they aren't without blame. Which makes your above statement pretty petty and sad.

Clearly Colt has problems that are beyond those caused by dealing with the unions. Just as clearly, dealing with the unions has not helped their situation.

[BehindBlueI's]

Almost as quickly as someone will be along to tell us they share no blame whatsoever.

I assume you're smart enough to know that I wasn't saying that it's all their fault, just as I assume you're smart enough to know they aren't without blame. Which makes your above statement pretty petty and sad.

Clearly Colt has problems that are beyond those caused by dealing with the unions. Just as clearly, dealing with the unions has not helped their situation.

I know this is going to be hard for you, but try to remember not everything is about you. I get your ego is going to struggle to understand this, but if I don't quote you or mention you...it may not be about you. This isn't the first union debate I've had.

Now, since you brought it up, I hate petty and sad so I do apologize. I prefer petty and humorous. Did a union steal your daughter, take her to Europe, and try to sell her into sex slavery? I only ask because it's complete distraction from the debate, requires no facts, and is utterly useless. I'll imply some bias to cast doubt on your argument, again without having to do anything as pesky as present actual data, with something like "the only people I see who bash a union without any supporting facts so hard had a family member held captive by one."

That one is about you.

[Foxtrotx1]

Everyone is quick to blame unions whenever we hear about colt.... but ask yourself. Has a non unionized company ever had financial troubles?

Never, the naysayers are right. I'll go back to my hole where i'll continue to believe that poor choices are not limited to unionized companies.

[Poconnor]

Nobody has mentioned the cost of staying in Connecticut. Colt should have left a long time ago. They should move to Texas or some other gun friendly state. I just hope they continue. I really want a Wiley clapp 9mm commander

[TR675]

I'm aware of at least one heavily leveraged company on the downslope that moved to Texas. They went bankrupt almost immediately and got liquidated. The cost of staying might be high but the cost of picking up shop for an entire company and moving it across the country is astronomical.


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[PearTree]

Now that this has been out for a while, is their anymore updates? As far as I can tell a couple employees were fired from the custom shop, yet it is still operational. Anymore news than that?

It would seem if that is the only news, the doom and gloom about Colt circling the drain is unwarranted then.

[BehindBlueI's]

Now that this has been out for a while, is their anymore updates? As far as I can tell a couple employees were fired from the custom shop, yet it is still operational. Anymore news than that?

It would seem if that is the only news, the doom and gloom about Colt circling the drain is unwarranted then.

Our own Misanthrope, from this thread, is being quoted for an article over on TFB: http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2...umored-gutted/

Which I find sort of funny. Forum posts are news! Not that I doubt Misanthrope or have anything disparaging to say about his comments, just that an article quotes a forum struck me as "wow, look at today's 'media' ".

Colt could very easily be facing extreme liquidity challenges again. Let's look at some of the "if this happens, we've got issues" from their reorganization plan:

It Is Possible that Demand for Modern Sporting Rifles Could Experience a Decline
Previous patterns of demand in the domestic commercial rifle channel suggest that
demand for the Debtors’ modern sporting rifle (“MSR”) products in that channel could experience a
rapid, material decline at any time. A decline in demand for MSRs could have a material adverse impact
on the Reorganized Debtors’ revenues and have an adverse impact on the Reorganized Debtors’ business.

Well...yeah, the AR market has tanked since Trump won. So check that box.

The Debtors Are Subject to Risks Related to a Lack of Product Revenue Diversification
The Debtors derive a substantial percentage of their net sales from a limited number of
products, consisting almost exclusively of rifles and handguns

Firearms sales are declining across the board, so...check.

improved competitive alternatives to the Debtors’ products gaining acceptance in the markets in
which they participate;

How many AR and 1911 makers are there now?

increased pressure from competitors that offer broader product lines

Is there a competitor with a narrower product line?

a failure to release new or enhanced versions of the Debtors’ products to their military or other
customers on a timely basis.

Has there been enhanced versions released to military or "other customers" in the post-bankruptcy years?

How important is selling ARs to Colt?

Substantially all of the Debtors’ sales into the commercial rifle channel consist of MSRs.
A decrease in sales of MSRs for any reason could have a material adverse impact on the Debtors’
business.

This was followed by worries of gun control laws banning the sales of their products, which hasn't happened. No need to worry about the cost of redesigns to comply with a new ban, but another indication of how vulnerable they are to downturns due to lack of diversity in their products.

The Markets in Which the Debtors Compete Are Highly Competitive and the Debtors May Be
Unsuccessful at Designing New Products to Meet Changing Customer Demand, Introducing Them on
a Timely Basis or Pricing Them Competitively

Again, what new products have we seen?

While Part of the Debtors’ Strategy Is to Pursue Strategic Acquisitions, They May Not Be Able to
Identify Businesses That They Can Acquire on Acceptable Terms, They May Not Be Able to Obtain
Necessary Financing or May Face Risks Due to Additional Indebtedness, and the Debtors’ Acquisition
Strategy May Incur Significant Costs or Expose Them to Substantial Risks Inherent in the Acquired
Business’s Operations

*Sigh*. Our company has liquidity issues and is tanking, let's acquire our way out of this. Although...who did they acquire?

The Timing of Delivery of Large Orders Can Result in Significant Fluctuations in the Debtors’ Periodto-Period
Performance
The Debtors’ operating results and cash flow can fluctuate materially from one period to
the next as a result of the timing of the manufacture and delivery of large domestic and international
governmental orders.

Reliance on gov't contracts again.

and it goes on, but you get the idea of why I say I'm not sure Colt can pivot. A lot of their "I really hope this doesn't happen" came to be, their "this is how we'll fix it" hasn't, or at least not yet. Like I said earlier, dumping debt is just an extension, not a solution, and if you can't figure out the revenue you find yourself right back in the same mess.

[Maple Syrup Actual]

Now that this has been out for a while, is their anymore updates? As far as I can tell a couple employees were fired from the custom shop, yet it is still operational. Anymore news than that?

It would seem if that is the only news, the doom and gloom about Colt circling the drain is unwarranted then.

I don't really want to get quoted again but although the people I initially talked to are pretty close to the whole thing, I don't think it's as bad as was originally described to me.

I mean the first words I got out of anyone were pretty apocalyptic but I think in retrospect that was more due to the emotional investment those people had in the situation. I heard a lot of quite detailed information (the vast majority of which I did not post) but most of the big shocking layoffs don't look to have happened so...great, I guess?

I'll say this - I definitely hadn't considered the possibility that the conversation which prompted my initial comments was skewed so heavily by the personal situations of people I was talking to.

[Stephanie B]

I didn't see anything on the Hartford Courant's web site about Colt.