Claude hits one out of the park....

[Glenn E. Meyer]

I've said before that the Internet norm seems to be a single or two mugger be gone. Said person or two approaches you and you wave your gun and they go away. Or maybe you fire a shot or two and they cease attacking you for whatever reason (shot, you missed but they flee, who knows).

An outlier is on a probablity basis is ending up at Mumbai, Kenya Mall, San Bernadino or Orlando where a J frame (for the 'average') is harder to shoot and out of ammo really quickly (I don't need no speed strip). I recall the Kenya Mall guys commenting on worrying about their not having reloads. I ate lunch with friends who babble about the latest guns but only have the dreaded 'truck' gun - which I told them is useless most of the time. They didn't like that.

For the dinosaurs, meteor day was an outlier in the weather forecast.

BTW, a friend of mine (another FOG) but dedicated competitor was stopped at the gas station by the single bad guy who insisted that my buddy fill up his gas tank for him. Friend said - I don't want what you want to buy and you don't want what I'm going to sell you. Perhaps the bad guy intuited the 1911 and extra mags under the jacket - so he left.

[Mr_White]

Here is what I think of probability

[img]Probability by OrigamiAK, on Flickr[/img]

[Jay Cunningham]

A very misunderstood concept is that of risk. And it's incredibly important to have a handle on it.

It's not just the odds. It's not just the stakes. It's both. It must be. It has to be.

risk = probability X consequences

We evaluate and manage risk every day in everything that we do.

So we need to have an understanding of probability, i.e. the likelihood of an "event" occurring.

And we need to understand the consequences of an "event".

Finally, we need to evaluate if the juice is in fact worth the squeeze when it comes to deciding upon a course of action, whether it's doing a thing or not doing a thing.

[Dagga Boy]

I've said before that the Internet norm seems to be a single or two mugger be gone. Said person or two approaches you and you wave your gun and they go away. Or maybe you fire a shot or two and they cease attacking you for whatever reason (shot, you missed but they flee, who knows).

An outlier is on a probablity basis is ending up at Mumbai, Kenya Mall, San Bernadino or Orlando where a J frame (for the 'average') is harder to shoot and out of ammo really quickly (I don't need no speed strip). I recall the Kenya Mall guys commenting on worrying about their not having reloads. I ate lunch with friends who babble about the latest guns but only have the dreaded 'truck' gun - which I told them is useless most of the time. They didn't like that.

For the dinosaurs, meteor day was an outlier in the weather forecast.

BTW, a friend of mine (another FOG) but dedicated competitor was stopped at the gas station by the single bad guy who insisted that my buddy fill up his gas tank for him. Friend said - I don't want what you want to buy and you don't want what I'm going to sell you. Perhaps the bad guy intuited the 1911 and extra mags under the jacket - so he left.

I have always carried for the outlier incident, because I know how my luck runs. That has had to change lately due to working. In a very non permissive environment. One thing lacking in Mumbai, Orlando, SAN Bernardino, etc. is engagement upon initiation. Where I am really liking the sub compact 9mm is the ability to give some solid initiation engagement with few manipulations on the gun, and you can easily carry full capacity reloads for those incidents. While we don't normally shoot the sub compacts as well as full size service guns...I find them very much workable for most drills we use for performance assessment, and they are not in the car. Currently, my j frame is a pocket gun that I can palm while dealing with unsavory zombies (this has become a regular thing), and the P2000SK has had to become my go to war with what you got gun. I have put a lot more time into mastering the little gun. The key to all of this....and accessible firearm at all times is really the formula to start with, and then bigger is better if you can pull it off.

[Rex G]

That used to be the case. Now, we are seeing more and more where the victim simply lives in a decent house, that looks like there might be valuables present.

This! I have not kept any statistics, but do work for a big-city* PD, and do perceive the shifting winds. Armed robberies, both In public spaces, and involving home invasions, have changed in the past decade or so. Street/parking area robberies used to happen in bad neighborhoods. Now, such robberies are everywhere. Home invasions used to primarily involve homes associated with the illegal drug trade, but now home invasions have become fashionable and random.

I used to think that the increasing number of home invasions, with no indications of drug involvement, were mistaken-identity/wrong-address scenarios, but finally had to concede that the newer motive was often not drugs or drug money, but simple predatory activity against those seen to be successful. (Robbery is generally a crime of violence, with a secondary goal of monetary reward.)

*Houston PD. I live in a smaller city surrounded by Houston.

[BJJ]

Where do you carry your medical equipment?

Here is what I think of probability

[img]Probability by OrigamiAK, on Flickr[/img]

[Rex G]

A very misunderstood concept is that of risk. And it's incredibly important to have a handle on it.

It's not just the odds. It's not just the stakes. It's both. It must be. It has to be.

risk = probability X consequences

We evaluate and manage risk every day in everything that we do.

So we need to have an understanding of probability, i.e. the likelihood of an "event" occurring.

And we need to understand the consequences of an "event".

Finally, we need to evaluate if the juice is in fact worth the squeeze when it comes to deciding upon a course of action, whether it's doing a thing or not doing a thing.

Well-said!

[Mr_White]

Where do you carry your medical equipment?

Ankle

[Nephrology]

That used to be the case. Now, we are seeing more and more where the victim simply lives in a decent house, that looks like there might be valuables present.

This! I have not kept any statistics, but do work for a big-city* PD, and do perceive the shifting winds. Armed robberies, both In public spaces, and involving home invasions, have changed in the past decade or so. Street/parking area robberies used to happen in bad neighborhoods. Now, such robberies are everywhere. Home invasions used to primarily involve homes associated with the illegal drug trade, but now home invasions have become fashionable and random.

I used to think that the increasing number of home invasions, with no indications of drug involvement, were mistaken-identity/wrong-address scenarios, but finally had to concede that the newer motive was often not drugs or drug money, but simple predatory activity against those seen to be successful. (Robbery is generally a crime of violence, with a secondary goal of monetary reward.)

This is very interesting information to me. Does anyone else (particularly other LEOs) know more/have further comment on this trend?

[AMC]

A lot of crime trends are, for lack of a better term, fad-driven. Two years ago, 90% plus of our robberies were street robberies for cell phones. This has changed dramatically....driven in large part by industry announcements of incorporating 'kill switcher's' into phone software, rendering them useless for buyers on the black market. Also, our local thug/banger population did the risk/reward analysis and determined that auto Burglary was the way to go. Where it used to be homeless drug addicts commiting these crimes, it's now groups of gang members in cars. Most victims are tourists with rental cars full of their expensive stuff, and the bad guys know that once they're back in their getaway car, they're home free (we can't pursue for property crimes). As for the topic at hand, yes we have seen an increase in home invasions of normal citizens, including by armed groups. Not a huge increase, but it's there.