Estonia, Poland and Lithuania prepare for possible Russian invasion

[Kyle Reese]

Where's Jack Ryan when you need him.

Right?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Joe in PNG]

Iakdrago, ^^^ You have more confidence in Putin being "reasonable and smart" (in our reckoning) than I do.

You don't rise to power in Russia by being an idiot. You won't hold power in Russia likewise.

If it was an open invasion with zero deniability attempted, maybe some pressure may have some minor effect, but by claiming all the time they have no idea whats going on and it isn't Russians, as has already successfully been achieved, the risk is pretty low. They may not even have to try to take the entire country, just parts they feel are valuable to their interests like they did in Ukraine.

You can only do that so many times before it stops working. The pre-WWII governments were far more inclined to appeasement then ours, and they finally hit the "no more" point.

[Malamute]

You don't rise to power in Russia by being an idiot. You won't hold power in Russia likewise.
.

I don't think hes an idiot, just has different ideas than we do about whats acceptable regarding actions, and potential losses required to achieve goals.

[iakdrago]

Hes seen repeated "red line" bluster from BO that went exactly nowhere, and hes seen basically nothing of substance done when he went into Crimea, (and all the time denying it).

You are forgetting that Ukraine is NOT part of NATO, and that Poland,Lithuania, and Estonia are. Just as Putin did not do anything when the Russian Su-24 was shot down over Syria--he will not do anything to trigger the NATO prime directive. An attack on one, is an attack on all. It is against U.S. policy to jeopardize that, just as it is against Russian policy to start a Nuclear war. The only way that Russia can take on NATO is through a Nuclear confrontation--hence the Russian strategic approach against the ABM treaty/shield. Like I said before--the world, and Putin certainly don't want that.

Yes Putin will chip away at what he can get--that however will never be a NATO country.

[Mitchell, Esq.]

You are forgetting that Ukraine is NOT part of NATO, and that Poland,Lithuania, and Estonia are. Just as Putin did not do anything when the Russian Su-24 was shot down over Syria--he will not do anything to trigger the NATO prime directive. An attack on one, is an attack on all. It is against U.S. policy to jeopardize that, just as it is against Russian policy to start a Nuclear war. The only way that Russia can take on NATO is through a Nuclear confrontation--hence the Russian strategic approach against the ABM treaty/shield. Like I said before--the world, and Putin certainly don't want that.

Yes Putin will chip away at what he can get--that however will never be a NATO country.

Until there is regime change, a repudiation of NATO by the government and a liberation by Russia...

[iakdrago]

Until there is regime change, a repudiation of NATO by the government and a liberation by Russia...

Please clarify

[Malamute]

I'm not forgetting Ukraine isn't Nato, I think it was instructive to Putin that despite huffing and puffing about Ukraine, the US didn't do anything, Nato or not. Same as the red line in Syria. I don't think he sees Nato as the imposing wall or obstacle as we think he does. I doubt the US would become engaged in a nuke exchange over the small Baltic states, and I think he knows that. I also doubt wed go for an all out ground war. I think that like Ukraine, he wouldn't completely disregard the idea of some sort of action in other countries and blame it on locals, while simply denying that Russia has anything to do with it. Its a bald faced lie, and almost everyone (but the Russian people) knows it, but it was a stall tactic that basically seems to have worked. By the time BO got past the being peeved, the deed was far into happening or done.

If theres any doubt about Putins frame of mind, hes been telling the Russian people to prepare for a nuke war with the belligerent US, while here people are all "WTF is he talking about?" If he decides to pull a Ukraine on another country, the Russian people will probably all be behind him. Remember, in Ukraine, he didn't just run a full army in and take the entire place over, he ran a bunch of people in under cover of darkness, completely denied they were Russian, and took the slice they wanted, leaving much of it alone. It wasn't a full scale invasion, it was a selective appropriation of assets and territory.

ETA: forgot to address this

You can only do that so many times before it stops working. The pre-WWII governments were far more inclined to appeasement then ours, and they finally hit the "no more" point.

I'm not convince that weve hit that point yet. Or I'm not convinced Putin has hit that point yet. I believe hes feeling it all out right now.

[Malamute]

Please clarify

It seems pretty straightforward, and not entirely out of the question.

[RevolverRob]

Please clarify

Some folks feel that POTUS may be disinclined to send US forces to help a NATO country. I agree that POTUS maybe disinclined. However, it is neither the president's prerogative nor within their power to pull out of a long-standing alliance and treaty, that is Congress' authority and their's alone. And as stupid at Obama has been and Clinton/Trump are likely to be...there is pretty much a snowball's chance in hell that Congress approves a unilateral withdraw from NATO and our agreements. We just may not be the first to send troops in...

[Hot Sauce]

2nd. What does Russia have to gain from attacking those countries? Ukraine was on the verge of joining NATO, and was the key to Russia's hold on European gas, as well as being the access to the Black Sea. Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia on the other hand are part of NATO--the big brother that Russia will unequivocally not poke.

Come again?