You don't rise to power in Russia by being an idiot. You won't hold power in Russia likewise.
You can only do that so many times before it stops working. The pre-WWII governments were far more inclined to appeasement then ours, and they finally hit the "no more" point.
You are forgetting that Ukraine is NOT part of NATO, and that Poland,Lithuania, and Estonia are. Just as Putin did not do anything when the Russian Su-24 was shot down over Syria--he will not do anything to trigger the NATO prime directive. An attack on one, is an attack on all. It is against U.S. policy to jeopardize that, just as it is against Russian policy to start a Nuclear war. The only way that Russia can take on NATO is through a Nuclear confrontation--hence the Russian strategic approach against the ABM treaty/shield. Like I said before--the world, and Putin certainly don't want that.
Yes Putin will chip away at what he can get--that however will never be a NATO country.
I'm not forgetting Ukraine isn't Nato, I think it was instructive to Putin that despite huffing and puffing about Ukraine, the US didn't do anything, Nato or not. Same as the red line in Syria. I don't think he sees Nato as the imposing wall or obstacle as we think he does. I doubt the US would become engaged in a nuke exchange over the small Baltic states, and I think he knows that. I also doubt wed go for an all out ground war. I think that like Ukraine, he wouldn't completely disregard the idea of some sort of action in other countries and blame it on locals, while simply denying that Russia has anything to do with it. Its a bald faced lie, and almost everyone (but the Russian people) knows it, but it was a stall tactic that basically seems to have worked. By the time BO got past the being peeved, the deed was far into happening or done.
If theres any doubt about Putins frame of mind, hes been telling the Russian people to prepare for a nuke war with the belligerent US, while here people are all "WTF is he talking about?" If he decides to pull a Ukraine on another country, the Russian people will probably all be behind him. Remember, in Ukraine, he didn't just run a full army in and take the entire place over, he ran a bunch of people in under cover of darkness, completely denied they were Russian, and took the slice they wanted, leaving much of it alone. It wasn't a full scale invasion, it was a selective appropriation of assets and territory.
ETA: forgot to address this
I'm not convince that weve hit that point yet. Or I'm not convinced Putin has hit that point yet. I believe hes feeling it all out right now.
Last edited by Malamute; 11-02-2016 at 08:40 PM.
Some folks feel that POTUS may be disinclined to send US forces to help a NATO country. I agree that POTUS maybe disinclined. However, it is neither the president's prerogative nor within their power to pull out of a long-standing alliance and treaty, that is Congress' authority and their's alone. And as stupid at Obama has been and Clinton/Trump are likely to be...there is pretty much a snowball's chance in hell that Congress approves a unilateral withdraw from NATO and our agreements. We just may not be the first to send troops in...