Why Senate Race may be most Important Part of the Election

[RJ]

http://www.schwab.com/insights/marke...ion?cmp=em-QYB

"... MIKE: Well, Republicans currently have a 54-46 majority in the Senate, but there are 24 Republicans up for re-election and just 10 Democrats. So Democrats really feel like they have a shot to take over the majority.

But here’s why this matters: No matter who wins control of the Senate it’s going to be a very, very narrow margin—51-49, 52-48, something like that—one way or the other. And that’s going to act as a huge break on the aspirations of whoever wins the White House.

In the modern Senate, you really need a 60-vote super majority to control the agenda, break a filibuster. So whoever wins the White House is going to have a really difficult time getting things through the Senate and passing the legislation that they want to. So investors need to remember that it’s going to be very, very difficult, no matter what the rhetoric is that you hear on the campaign trail."

Very much agree here.

Assuming Trump continues to shoot at his own anatomy, and Hillary wins, I think we need to look at the Senate as critical in blocking her platform in 2017 and beyond.

Would you agree?

How is the Senate race looking in your area?

[Dagga Boy]

Probably okay here, but in the next one Trump has threatened to dump 30 million into a PAC to take down Ted Cruz.....which should open the door for someone like Wendy Davis or another democrat as the Dems badly want to turn Texas a bit more purple. They put a ton into her Govenor run. A combined money assault on Cruz by both the Liberal progressive Democrats and the Trumplicans could be enough to get rid of the most conservative Senator in the Senate and one of the few who has actually represented his States priorities over the party priorities and replace him with a Progresive Democrat. It is why I will not pull a lever for Trump, and hope he ends up bankrupt so he can stay out of Texas politics.

[RoyGBiv]

I don't think Davis can win a statewide election, regardless of how much money Trump and Bloomberg throw at it. She's spoiled goods after her Gubernatorial run last year. IMO. Maybe a centrist-D Latino??

Cruz really burned a lot of bridges coming to the podium and refusing to give at least a qualified endorsement of Trump. Trump scored a few points with me for allowing that to happen and not throwing a hissy (relatively speaking).

I agree with the OP.... The Senate is critical... RCP showing 47/D - 44/R with 9 tossups as of today.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...enate_map.html

Here's the toss up column...
AZ: McCain (R)
FL: Rubio (R)
IN: Open (R)
MO: Blunt (R)
NV: Open (D)
NH: Ayotte (R)
NC: Burr (R)
OH: Portman (R)
PA: Toomey (R)

[LOKNLOD]

It is why I will not pull a lever for Trump, and hope he ends up bankrupt so he can stay out of Texas politics.

Not trying to push the Trump vote on you, but hypothetically -- does a victorious or defeated Trump spend more effort and money try to beat up Cruz? Seems like a vindictive Trump might be an even bigger threat (to Cruz) than President Trump (who benefits more from a Republican-controlled Senate even if Cruz is among them, I think). Smart money for Trump if he is worried about Cruz is to get him out of his hair by making amends and then sidelining him by friend-zoning him.... But i suspect it's more about revenge on Cruz than a concern Cruz will be an obstacle. In that case I think a scorned Trump is more dangerous.

[Chance]

I've been saying that about the Senate for a while now, and it's why I think it might actually be better if The Queen won. I saw a poll recently saying that almost half of both Trump and Hillary's supporters are sticking with that candidate just because they don't want the other to win. There's going to be a massive backlash no matter who takes office, so I want the backlash going in "the other" (assuming you can actually define WTF Trump is...) direction.

Ultimately, the short term is irrelevant when we start to consider the Supreme Court. The appointment there is what's going to matter. But given that Trump has no principles, there's no guarantee he would make a better nomination than Hillary. Also, in the space between this sentence and the last sentence, I bought ten more AR mags, and five more Glock 17 mags, and I'm not kidding at all. Seriously: I'm going to owe Cheaper Than Dirt one of my kidneys by the time this election is over....

[Dagga Boy]

Cruz's speech is actually what got me to pull the lever for Trump (which for anyone with a brain was not for the Trumplicans, but for the never Trumps to get them to the polls and pull the lever while they are there instead of staying home)....and then Trump's narcistic personality disorder took over and got the best of him and was back to Kennedy Assasination and and forming an anti Cruz and Kasich PAC, which he keeps doubling down on. You know what....fuck him. No matter how hard I try to get myself to vote for him, I have given up trying. I will go vote, likely pull for Johnson at this point as the only person who has actual conservative principles on the economy and debt, and vote the most conservative candidates down the ballot. Trump has made it clear he does not want folks like me and many others and obviously doesn't need us. The GOP is dead and we now have a Trumplican party that is basically a party of "tell you what you want to hear" that is the new "hope and change". Whatever, like the greatest generation America is dying fast and we are getting something new. Twitter politics, highly flawed sociopathic lying candidates, and a "living document" Constitution. I am actually to the point of thinking the Balkanization of America is a good thing and probably needed.......and I never in my wildest dreams thought I would be where I am. On the other hand...I like Pence....

[Nephrology]

I've been saying this for a while too - the president, while certainly an important position, has no direct influence on legislation written or passed beyond their ability to veto and their role as the bully pulpit. No matter what HRC says or believes about the 2nd amendment, there's nothing that she can do beyond whine out loud so long as the GOP maintains enough of a majority to murder any anti-2a legislation that moves down the pipeline.

Furthermore, consider where the biggest restrictions to our 2nd amendment rights have come from in the last 10 years - 100% done at the state level. CT, CO, NY, CA, and likely more I am forgetting - this is where the most important battles are lost and won so far. Losing the Senate would be a catastrophe, but we stand to make the biggest strides at the state level. So, get out there and vote in November, but don't let all this Trump vs. Hillary crap lead you to thinking that the end is coming if she wins. Even if you can't bring yourself to vote for Trump, if you vote R down the rest of your ballot you will probably be doing a lot more good than having Trump as POTUS.

[Ronin_Jedi]

Congress in general and the Senate in particular is always more important, for it is they that really controls the laws of this land and have no term limits placed upon them.

The real power of the President, other than being the face of America and being a real/energizing leader (like Reagan) lies with appointments to Federal courts including the Supreme Court, if discount being on the receiving end of a nuke missile.

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[Ronin_Jedi]

I've been saying this for a while too - the president, while certainly an important position, has no direct influence on legislation written or passed beyond their ability to veto and their role as the bully pulpit. No matter what HRC says or believes about the 2nd amendment, there's nothing that she can do beyond whine out loud so long as the GOP maintains enough of a majority to murder any anti-2a legislation that moves down the pipeline.

Furthermore, consider where the biggest restrictions to our 2nd amendment rights have come from in the last 10 years - 100% done at the state level. CT, CO, NY, CA, and likely more I am forgetting - this is where the most important battles are lost and won so far. Losing the Senate would be a catastrophe, but we stand to make the biggest strides at the state level. So, get out there and vote in November, but don't let all this Trump vs. Hillary crap lead you to thinking that the end is coming if she wins. Even if you can't bring yourself to vote for Trump, if you vote R down the rest of your ballot you will probably be doing a lot more good than having Trump as POTUS.

While I generally agree with many points, I don't agree with all.

The President CAN and does influence legislation. The level of influence is proportional to their standing in the elections polls. Reagan would have greater influence than, say, Bush Jr.

On the 2A front, recent events have shown some GOP members willing to break ranks with the mainstream GOP. To me, though, the greater issue is the NRA. I can't recall one instance where they expressed any empathy over a mass killing. Nor do I remember they ever calling for studies and development of programs to counter violence of any type, not just gun violence, which to me is not the real issue. The real issue is violence in any form.

I perfectly understand that the NRA was founded to defend 2A rights but to me, among a growing number of gun rights citizens, the NRA needs to do more given their stature in the debate. If they don't step up, we are likely to win most of the battles yet lose the war.

As for the Republican Party, I am now an Independent with GOP leanings, but I have always vote the individual, not the party.

YMMV

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[SWAT Lt.]

The next POTUS will appoint more than 1 justice to the SCOTUS. That will determine, among other things, the future of the Second Amendment. The ramifications from such appointments could have a detrimental effect on this nation for decades. If the Republications lose the senate they will still retain the house so, IMO the presidency is crucial. Like Trump or not, he is the only chance we have to preserve the 2A for the future. Regardless, IMO everybody needs to GTFO it and get to the polls and vote for every Republican on their ballot.