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Thread: 1st round of stats of citizen v criminal resistance.

  1. #1
    Modding this sack of shit BehindBlueI's's Avatar
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    1st round of stats of citizen v criminal resistance.

    19 total cases. I'd hoped for a larger sample, but after I culled domestics and criminal v criminal encounters I had fewer than I thought I would.

    Total shots fired:
    N/A (weapon used was not a firearm) x5
    0 shots x5
    1 shot x4
    3 shots x3
    4 shots x1
    11 shots x1


    Number of shots to resolution (suspect disabled/began to flee or citizen disabled/disarmed):

    0 shots x7
    1 shots x6
    3 shots x1

    Distance at time of resistance
    Contact x 7
    0-3' x 5
    3-7' x 3
    7-21' x 3
    21' + x1 (bad shoot)

    Was speed of the draw a consideration in the outcome:
    Yes, from body carry x5
    Yes, from off body carry x2
    No, had firearm in hand prior to need to engage x3
    No, had other weapon in hand (knife, blunt, etc) prior to need to engage x 2
    No, draw speed of weapon was not a consideration (disabled prior to beginning draw, bad shoot and suspects already fleeing before 1st shot, etc.) x5
    N/A, unarmed resistance x2

    Reload:

    0 incidents

    Additional equipment needed:

    0 incidents

    Win/loss/tie (tie defined as at least one party on both sides disabled/killed)

    W x 13
    T x 1
    L x 5

    Outcomes of win

    Suspect fled without sustaining injury x6
    Suspect killed x3
    Suspect disabled/psychologically stopped due to injury x3
    Suspect restrained (not seriously injured) x1


    Outcome of tie:

    Victim injured during commission of crime/suspect injured during flight

    Outcome of loss
    Victim failed to deactivate thumb safety, victimized
    Victim carrying with empty chamber, killed
    Victim killed reaching for weapon
    Victim engaged 2 suspects he can see, shot from behind, suspects flee
    Victim wrestled suspect, was shot, suspect fled.


    Citizen weapon used:
    Victim weapon
    Handgun-pistol x7
    Handgun-revolver x5
    Handgun - other x1
    Unarmed x2
    Golf club x1
    shotgun x1
    knife x1
    taser x1

    Suspect weapon
    Unarmed x13
    handgun x7
    unknown weapon x1

    Number of victims

    1 victim x14
    2 victim x3
    3 victim x2

    Number of suspects

    1 suspect x 10
    2 suspect x 5
    3 suspect x 4

    Citizen averages vs single suspect:

    0.67 shots

    80% won encounter

    Citizen averages vs multiple suspects:

    0.57 shots
    50% won encounter

    Citizens with firearms won 64% of the time. However citizens who could employ their firearm (removing those reaching for off body carry, failing to deactivate safeties, etc) won 81% of the time. Other methods of resistance had an 80% success rate. The element of surprise was more important than the specific weapon employed, ie ambushing someone with a golf club and knocking their teeth down the stairs was better than attempting to reach for a handgun while under direct observation of an armed suspect. Citizens using other weapons were more likely to use ambush tactics and were also closer to their opponent.

    Due to the small sample size, this should be viewed as preliminary information at best. I will attempt to build on this database and will attempt to update every 20 incidents, (ie next update at 40 incidents)
    Last edited by BehindBlueI's; 10-27-2015 at 08:10 PM.

  2. #2
    Site Supporter Tamara's Avatar
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    I might have missed it, but what sort of time period do these 19 incidents span?
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    Modding this sack of shit BehindBlueI's's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tamara View Post
    Tagging in so I can subscribe to your newsletter...

    I might have missed it, but what sort of time period do these 19 incidents span?
    2 years-ish. I'm working backwards through case files.

  4. #4
    Site Supporter Tamara's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BehindBlueI's View Post
    2 years-ish. I'm working backwards through case files.
    I was wondering about the 11-shot one, is all.
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    Site Supporter GNRPowdeR's Avatar
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    As always, BBI.... You bring an interesting topic for digestion to the table. Thank you.

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    Would this be in the Indianapolis Metro area?

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    Member JHC's Avatar
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    Great start!

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  8. #8
    Chasing the Horizon RJ's Avatar
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    Bbl - Thanks for taking the time to compile this info, great stuff.

    Takeaway for me: Bring enough gun (10 rounds+), carry with a round in the chamber, and on body, practice with your safety or (maybe better) carry with a passive safety, and take a course in managing multiple contacts. Sound reasonable?

    (I realize I need to take a 'real' training class e.g. Tom Givens etc.)

  9. #9
    Modding this sack of shit BehindBlueI's's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 45dotACP View Post
    Would this be in the Indianapolis Metro area?

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    Yup.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich_Jenkins View Post
    Bbl - Thanks for taking the time to compile this info, great stuff.

    Takeaway for me: Bring enough gun (10 rounds+), carry with a round in the chamber, and on body, practice with your safety or (maybe better) carry with a passive safety, and take a course in managing multiple contacts. Sound reasonable?

    (I realize I need to take a 'real' training class e.g. Tom Givens etc.)
    Minimum capacity is higher than I'd put it, but otherwise, yes. While the "is my j-frame enough" has been the fodder of magazine articles and online debates since those were things, 5 remains my floor for those with no specific threats. Targeted violence often involves longer distances and higher round counts, so if you've got a crazy ex sending a hit squad after you, retaliation for testifying in court against a gang member, etc. then capacity becomes more important. As you can see from the stats here, though, not one person needed more than 3 shots to win, and the ones who lost did so before they got off more than 3.

    There is nothing wrong with more capacity at all if you shoot the gun equally well and are willing to carry the generally larger gun, but single stack semi-autos and revolvers remain completely viable IMO. My generic answer to "what gun should I carry" is the S&W Shield. Inexpensive, small enough that the casual carrier will actually carry it, large enough to have a good sight radius, enough capacity for random violence encounters, usable sights and trigger, etc. With a 10 round minimum, you'd cut some very good carry pistols out of contention.

  10. #10
    Site Supporter rob_s's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BehindBlueI's View Post
    19 total cases. I'd hoped for a larger sample, but after I culled domestics and criminal v criminal encounters I had fewer than I thought I would.
    This fact, in itself, says a lot.

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